本論文旨在探討美國對中國政策的轉變，聚焦於川普執政期間的對中政策及其背後的國際和國內因素。美中自正式交往40年以來，以「經濟」為主要交流內容，然而隨著中國經濟的快速發展和國內自由的逐步受限，美國對中關係開始從過往的擴張交往政策轉變為全面性的戰略競爭。在川普執政期間，以「美國優先」（America First）、「讓美國再次偉大」（Make America Great Again）及「印太戰略」（Indo-Pacific Strategy）為核心內容，美中關係在此背景發生重大變化。美中關稅貿易的起因在於全球化進程中，國際貿易對於國際關係穩定的重要性日益增加，美國作為全球主要霸權，試圖保持技術優勢並防止中國「中國製造2025」（Made in China 2025）戰略的實現。
    本研究從新古典現實主義的視角分析外交政策模型及其變項，並以川普對中政策為例，探討美中貿易戰的國際政治結構變化及川普政府在經貿衝突和科技競爭中的具體作為。隨後，本論文深入分析川普時期美國領導團隊的組成及其在經貿談判中的角色，包括領導者的意象、經貿團隊、國務院與國防部的影響等。
    此外，本研究還探討美國國內層次的影響因素，包括國會、美國民意、智庫以及跨國公司和商會對川普對中政策的塑造。最終，本論文對川普時期的具體對中政策及其反應，總結美中關稅貿易與科技制裁的結論。

  This dissertation aims to examine the transformation of U.S. policy toward China, with a particular focus on the Trump administration and the international and domestic factors underlying its China strategy. Over the forty years of formal U.S.–China engagement, economic exchange has been the primary foundation of bilateral relations. However, as China’s economy rapidly advanced and domestic freedoms became increasingly constrained, the United States began shifting from a policy of engagement to one of comprehensive strategic competition.
During the Trump administration, the relationship underwent significant changes, marked by the principles of “America First,” “Make America Great Again,” and the “Indo-Pacific Strategy.” The origins of the U.S.–China tariff conflict can be traced to the growing importance of international trade in the stability of global relations amid accelerating globalization. As the world’s leading hegemon, the United States sought to preserve its technological dominance and to prevent the realization of China’s “Made in China 2025” strategy.
This study adopts a neoclassical realist perspective to analyze the foreign policy model and its variables, using the Trump administration’s China policy as a case study to investigate shifts in international political structure and the administration’s concrete actions in trade and technology competition. The dissertation then offers an in-depth analysis of the composition of the U.S. leadership team during Trump’s presidency and their roles in trade negotiations, including presidential perceptions, the trade and economic team, and the influence of the Department of State and the Department of Defense.
Moreover, this research explores the domestic-level determinants of U.S. foreign policy, including the roles played by Congress, public opinion, think tanks, multinational corporations, and business associations in shaping Trump’s China strategy. Ultimately, this dissertation evaluates the Trump administration’s specific trade and technology policies toward China, and summarizes key findings regarding U.S.–China tariff conflict and technological sanctions.

第一章 緒論	1
第一節	研究背景與目的	1
第二節	文獻與檢閱	17
第三節  研究途徑與方法	27
第四節	論文章節安排	35
第五節	研究範圍與限制	45

第二章 新古典現實主義之分析	47
第一節	新古典現實主義的研究視角	48
第二節	外交政策的相關變項	67
第三節  小結	75 
第三章 川普對中政策的國際政治環境	76
第一節	美中關稅貿易的國際環境	76
第二節	美中政治與經貿競爭	91
第三節  美中科技與專利競爭	102 
第四節	小結	109
第四章 領導人與其團隊對中政策關鍵面向	111
第一節	總統與戰略文化	114
第二節  經貿團隊與科技團隊	127
第三節 國防部	139 
第四節	國務院	155
第五節	小結	162

第五章 美國國內層次影響川普對中因素	164
第一節	美國鐵鏽帶與茶黨	164
第二節	美國民意	174
第三節  美國國會	183 
第四節	美國跨國公司與商會	202
第五節	小結	204

第六章 川普對中的大戰略	210
第一節  川普的整體外交政策路線	211
第二節  川普的區域戰略	225
第三節  美中關稅貿易與科技封鎖	232 
第四節	小結	250

第七章 檢驗新古典現實主義	252
第一節	新古典現實主義之理論適用性檢視	253
第二節	各國對川普外交政策的回應	262
第三節  小結	269

第八章 結論	271
第一節	研究發現	271
第二節	未來展望	281
參考資料	285
壹、中文文獻	285
貳、英文文獻	289




圖目錄
圖1-1川普從貿易戰至科技戰之歷程	15
圖1-2權力轉移理論圖    	24
圖1-3本論文自變項、中介變項、依變項架構圖	36
圖1-4本論文架構圖	36
圖2-1平衡不足外交決策的形成	66
圖3-1 川普對中政策的國際政治結構變化章節安排	76
圖3-2中國1990-2023年GDP佔美國GDP的比例變化	91
圖3-3中國實際GDP增長率變化趨勢（1990-2023）　　　　92
圖3-4前五大來源國在2003-2023年按技術領域劃分的專利數值	100
圖5-1茶黨路線對外交政策的影響	169
圖5-2蓋勒普民調美國對中國好感度變化	177
圖5-3皮尤民調美國對中國好感度變化	177
圖5-4美國民眾對美中兩國哪國是經濟強權的看法	178
圖5-5美國民眾對貿易與經濟成長之看法	179
圖6-1依變項研究範圍示意圖	205
圖6-2川普交易型戰術而非成熟大戰略	211


表目錄       

表1-1川普依《貿易法》301條對中懲罰關稅時序   	12
表1-2三大國際關係理論對美中關係解釋與不足	29
表2-1外交政策四種理論	55
表2-2三大現實主義之比較	56
表2-3國家與社會關係與外交政策	66
表3-1中國1990-2023年與主要貿易夥伴之貿易總額	84
表3-2 中國自1990年至2023年之間的主要經貿夥伴進口總額	85
表3-3 中國1990-2023年之間對美出口成長	86
表3-4 中國GDP佔美國GDP的比例變化（1990-2023）	88
表3-5 中國自2010年至2023年之間對美出口成長	94
表3-6 中國實際GDP增長率變化趨勢（1990-2023）    	106
表4-1  美國針對中國主要軍事演習（2016年至2020年）	142
表6-1  美國整體外交政策與大戰略	210

一、中文部分
 （一）書籍
王信賢、寇健文 編，2021《中國大陸概論》增訂二版 台北：五南圖書公司。
何思因，2023。《霸權貨幣的地緣政治課》。台北：聯經出版公司。
何瑞恩、施道安、卜睿哲 著，陳佳瑜 譯，2023《步步為營》台北：聯立媒體股份有限公司。
吳介民，2019。《尋租中國：台商、廣東模式與全球資本主義》。台北：臺大出版中心。
吳玉山，2022。《一個人或一個時代：習近平時代中國內政外交之演變與影響》。台北：五南圖書出版公司。
李大中，2022。《從交往到遏制：美國的印太(亞太)戰略與對中政策》。臺北：韋伯文化。
林文程，2019。《中國海權崛起與美中印太爭霸》台北：五南出版社。
林正義 主編，2023《川普政府中美關係專題研究》台北：五南圖書出版公司。
寇健文，2010。《中共菁英政治的演變：制度化與權力轉移，1978–2010》三版 台北：五南圖書公司。
麥克．龐貝歐 著，陳佳瑜 譯，2024《絕不讓步：龐貝歐回憶錄》台北：聯經出版公司。
關中，2007。《意識形態與外交政策》台北：五南圖書出版公司。
（二）期刊論文：
王信賢，〈川普政府的「美國優先」戰略與國際秩序重組〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第22卷第1期，2021年3月，頁5–22。
王緝思，〈從韜光養晦到奮發有為：中國對外策略轉型〉，《國際問題研究》，第3期，2014年，頁4–13。
王緝思，2014。〈從韜光養晦到奮發有為：中國對外戰略轉型〉，《國際問題研究》，第3期，頁4-13。
白潔曦，〈戰略競爭的未來：中美關係是否走向新冷戰？〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第22卷第4期，2021年10月，頁5–13。
石之瑜，〈中國的改革開放：四十年與持續發展〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第19卷第4期，2018年10月，頁15–32。
吳玉山，〈理性與迷思：中國大陸決策過程的制度分析與認知分析〉，《問題與研究》，第38卷第4期，1999年10月，頁17–48。
吳玉山，〈悲劇預言：權力轉移理論與中美關係〉，《問題與研究》，第58卷第1期，2019年，頁1–40。
吳玉山，2007。〈霸權穩定論、權力轉移論與東亞國際秩序〉，《政治科學論叢》，第33期，頁7-40。
李大中，2019/8。〈川普的印太戰略與美中戰略競爭〉，《軍事社會科學專刊》，15 期，頁3-14。
李酉潭，〈美國利益團體與遊說政治之運作邏輯〉，《問題與研究》，第40卷第1期，2001年，頁1–27。
李淳、顏慧欣、楊書菲，〈美中貿易戰之趨勢及對臺灣投資與貿易結構之影響〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第22卷第2期，2021年，頁1–58。
杜如松、劉遵義，〈中美經濟競爭與全球經濟秩序的重塑〉，《國際政治研究》，第41期，2020年，頁1–36。
杜如松、劉遵義，2020。〈中美經濟競爭與全球經濟秩序的重塑〉，《國際政治研究》，第41期，頁1–36。
林正義，〈美中貿易衝突對全球供應鏈重組之影響〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第21卷第4期，2020年12月，頁43–56。
邱奕宏，〈從國際建制主義解析川普挑戰全球貿易建制的原因〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第22卷第1期，2021年，頁127–184。
洪敬富，〈中國民族主義與科技強國建設評析〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第26卷第1期，2025年4月，頁25–42。
桂斌、周宗漢，〈QUAD成為亞洲軍事同盟的可行性評估：印度的視角〉，《戰略與評估》，第13卷第1期，2023年6月，頁1–25。
張弘遠，〈「目標性貿易制裁」與抑制技術進步效果：以美中貿易戰之個案為例〉，《東亞研究》，第52卷第1期，2021年6月，頁1–42。
張登及，〈在平衡對美中關係的影響：一個理論與政策的分析〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第14卷第2期，2013年4月，頁53–98。
張登及，2013/4。〈再平衡對美中關係的影響：一個理論與政策的分析〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第14卷第2期，頁53-98。
郭大維，〈美國選區重劃與政黨操控：論Gerrymandering對民主代表性的挑戰〉，《選舉研究》，第25卷第2期，2018年，頁1-40。
郭偉山，〈「四方安全對話」擴能對印太區域形勢的影響〉，《展望與探索》，第21卷第12期，2023年12月，頁1–28。
陳欣之，〈國際體系層級的建構與霸權統治〉，《問題與研究》，第46卷第2期，2007年4–6月，頁23–52。
黃恩浩，〈爭論中的國際關係「戰略文化」研究〉，《問題與研究》，第51卷第4期，2012年7月，頁95–127。
楊昊，〈形塑中的印太：動力、論述與戰略布局〉，《問題與研究》，第57卷第2期，2018年，頁87–105。
廖舜右、蔡松伯，〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結〉，《問題與研究》，第52卷第3期，2013年7月，頁43–61。
廖舜右、蔡松伯，2013/7。〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結」，《問題與研究》，第 52 卷第 3 期，頁 43-61。
蔡明彥，〈川普勝選為亞洲帶來的變數〉，《新社會政策》，第48期，2016年12月，頁27–30。
蔡裕明，2021。〈美中戰略競爭的技術因素：拜登政府對中國之政策〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》，第17卷第3期，頁55-87。
鄭端耀，〈國際關係新古典現實主義〉，《問題與研究》，第52卷第3期，2005年2月，頁115–140。

（三）網頁資料：
BBC中文網，2019。〈中美科技冷戰〉，《BBC中文網》， ＜https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad＞。賴瑩綺，2022/2/10。〈中美貿易逆差擴大至3,553億美元〉，《工商時報》，https://ctee.com.tw/news/china/592633.html。
人民日報，〈中共中央政治局會議強調加強國家高科技戰略布局〉，《人民日報》，2020年10月，〈http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2020/1030/c1001-31912364.html〉。
人民日報，〈京滬干線開通 我國成功實現首次洲際量子通信〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，2017年9月。＜http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0930/c1001-29569348.html＞
人民日報，〈習近平總書記關於網絡安全和信息化工作重要論述綜述〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，2018年11月，〈http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2018/1106/c419242-30383547.html〉。
人民日報，2017/9/30。〈京滬干線開通 我國成功實現首次洲際量子通信〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0930/c1001-29569348.html。
人民日報，2018/11/6。〈習近平總書記關於網絡安全和信息化工作重要論述綜述〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，＜http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2018/1106/c419242-30383547.html＞。
人民日報，2020/10/30。〈中共中央政治局會議强调加强國家高科技戰略布局〉，《人民日報》，＜http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2020/1030/c1001-31912364.html＞。
中央社，〈川普當選美國第45任總統〉，《中央社》，2016年11月9日，＜https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201611090123.aspx＞
中央社，2016/11/9。〈川普當選美國第45任總統〉，《中央社》，＜https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201611090123.aspx＞。
中華人民共和國國務院，2021/3/13。〈中華人民共和國國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃和2035年遠景目標綱要〉，《人民出版社》，＜http://big5.www.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/13/content_5592681.htm＞。
田君美，〈大陸「十三五」規劃對其經濟發展與兩岸經貿關係之影響評估及因應建議〉，《行政院大陸委員會委託研究》，2015年12月，〈https://ws.mac.gov.tw/001/Upload/OldFile/public/data/711616464671.pdf〉。
吳介民，2019/11/1。〈美中科技戰衝擊，「中國製造2025」大推進式發展半導體產業可行嗎？〉，《關鍵評論》，https://www.thenewslens.com/article/126757/fullpage。（最後瀏覽日期：2023/2/9）
 李大中，「台灣議題成為美中關係中最敏感與最具潛在破壞力的議題」，《淡江時報》，2024年11月10日。＜https://tkutimes.tku.edu.tw/dtl.aspx?no=58352＞
肖曼，2022/7/21。〈美國中情局長伯恩斯談中國〉，《RFI》，http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FJ09Ad07.html。人民日報，〈京滬干線開通 我國成功實現首次洲際量子通信〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，2017年9月，〈http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0930/c1001-29569348.html〉。
二、英文部分
（一）專書：
A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, 1980.The War Ledger .University of Chicago Press.
A.F.K. Organski, 1958.World Politics . New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Aaron L. Friedberg, 2012. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. 
Adam Tooze, 2021.Shutdown: How COVID Shook the World’s Economy (London: Allen Lane.
Alden, Edward.2016.. Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 
Allison, Graham, 2017. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Allison, Graham, Kevin Klyman, Karina Barbesino, and Hugo Yen, 2021. The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the US. Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.
Allison, Graham. , 2017Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Allison, Graham.,2017. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Bader, Jeffrey A., 2013. Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
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（五）官方文件
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