本篇論文探討1991至2019年間烏克蘭的寡頭與政治體制的發展。從2019年4月一位毫無政治經驗的喜劇演員—澤倫斯基贏得總統選舉中可見，寡頭科洛莫伊斯基在背後的支持才是勝選的關鍵，目的是報復總統波羅申科對他的Privat銀行集團實施的「國有化」政策。對此，本文以寡頭與政府的鬥爭為動機，主要探討的目的為下：首先、除了一般型網絡理論，本文特別研究「蘇聯式的關係網絡」，在共產主義的社會中，人與人高度依賴彼此的關係成為後蘇聯國家特有的網絡關係，且隨著時間的演變，也成為人們在現今社會遵守的潛規則與「引領」；其次、烏克蘭的半總統制與「正式制度」，包含憲法、國會、內閣與總統，特別是總統為了政治目的對憲法進行「策略性修改」，成為烏克蘭正式制度上的缺陷；再者、烏克蘭的「非正式制度」：寡頭的興起與派系的形成，為了擴大商業利益的版圖，他們從進入地方政府、國會與內閣，及從對政府與總統的依賴，到間接甚至直接影響國家的政策走向；最後、以歷史制度主義分析在不同的總統任期之間，與不同的憲政體制下，正式制度與非正式制度在不同的總統任期間產生不同的變化，寡頭如何「利用」非正式制度彌補政治制度的不足。本文試圖證實烏克蘭寡頭從對正式制度的依賴到獨立，最終成為控制國家政治與經濟的幕後黑手。

This thesis explores the development of oligarchs and the political institution in Ukraine from 1991 to 2019. In April 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian, won a landslide victory in presidential election, revealing the importance of support from oligarch, Ihor Kolomoisky. In a TV series, <Servant of the People> , Kolomoisky created Zelensky as an upright and ideal president to avenge the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, for “nationalizing” his Privat Bank, the biggest bank in Ukraine. Based on this battle between oligarch and the former president, main purposes of this research are as follows: The first is to explain network theory, particularly “soviet relation and network”— the connection that people during the USSR relied closely on each other in everyday life, which still existed, and had turned into hidden rules and the “navigation” in modern society that everyone has to obey and follow. The second is to illustrate the formal institution, concerning Ukraine’s semi-presidentialism, including constitution, parliament, cabinet and president — especially the constitution, which has been strategically amended by presidents for their own purposes. The third area is the informal institution, which emphasizes the role of oligarchs in Ukraine, including their main clans in different regions (oblasts). To expand largely the scope of business, they stretched their arms in local administrations, parliament, and government for power and to maneuver the policy either indirectly or directly in their favor. The final is to analyze how formal and informal institutions, through historical institutionalism, influenced each other in each period of presidency and under different constitutional systems. Oligarchs’ manipulation of informal institution makes up for the weakness of formal institution. That is, this thesis intends to prove that oligarchs, from dependence to independence on formal institution, became the “hidden strong hand”, controlling Ukraine’s economy and politics.

第一章	緒論	1
第一節	研究動機與目的	1
第二節	研究方法與途徑	6
第三節	文獻回顧	8
第四節	章節安排與架構	14
第五節	研究範圍與限制	16
第二章 理論分析	17
第一節	新制度主義與歷史制度主義	17
第二節	網絡理論	23
第三章 烏克蘭憲政體制與政治發展（1991年—迄今）	44
第一節	烏克蘭的半總統制	44
第二節	烏克蘭國會	47
第三節	烏克蘭的憲政發展	50
第四章 烏克蘭寡頭政治發展	78
第一節	寡頭的形成與派系（1991—2004）	78
第二節	橙色革命後寡頭政治的轉變（2004—2010）	89
第三節	亞努科維奇時期: 寡頭政治的影響與鞏固的始端（2010—2014）	97
第四節	波羅申科時期: 去寡頭化、寡頭與民粹主義的結合（2014—2019）	109
第五章 以歷史制度主義分析寡頭政治的轉變與發展	121
第一節	90年代寡頭的興起	121
第二節	2005—10年尤申科：寡頭與政治的結合	125
第三節	2010—14年亞努科維奇：寡頭發展的巔峰	127
第四節	2014—19年波羅申科時期	130
第六章 結論	137
第一節	研究發現	137
第二節	未來研究之展望	143
參考文獻	145

表目錄
表2- 1：賄賂與BLAT的比較	37
表2- 2：BLAT與貪腐的比較	38
表3- 1：烏克蘭總統與其憲政體制	47
表3- 2：克拉夫丘克任期內總理	53
表3- 3：1999年10月總統選舉結果	55
表3- 4：2002年國會選舉結果	56
表3- 5：2006年國會選舉結果	61
表3- 6：2007年國會選舉結果	62
表3- 7：烏克蘭第五屆總統大選第一輪總統選舉結果	64
表3- 8：烏克蘭第五屆總統大選第二輪總統選舉結果	64
表3- 9：烏克蘭第七屆國會選舉結果	66
表3- 10：廣場革命發生前的重大事件：	67
表3- 11：廣場革命後2014年第六屆烏克蘭總統選舉結果	71
表3- 13：2019年總統選舉前兩位候選人第一輪和第二輪投票結果	76
表4- 1：頓內次克寡頭派系簡介	79
表4- 2：2006至2009年兩次天然氣爭議	93
表4- 3：亞努科維奇家族成員與擔任的職位	99
表4- 4：寡頭持有的電視頻道與媒體	105

圖目錄
圖1- 1：章節安排與研究目的架構圖	16
圖2- 1：垂直網絡	36
圖2- 2：水平網絡	36
圖2- 3：單一型金字塔系統	40
圖2- 4：競爭型金字塔系統	41
圖5- 1：90年代寡頭的崛起與派系的形成	123
圖5- 2：寡頭與總統和總理間的合作與衝突	126
圖5- 3：與亞努科維奇和地區黨有關係的寡頭	129
圖5- 4：波羅申科建立的權力金字塔	133
圖5- 5：寡頭建立自己的政黨與製造民粹代表	136
圖6- 1：策略性修憲	140
圖6- 2：正式與非正式制度的改變	143

附錄
附錄 1：「去寡頭化」的時間表	156

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阿莉娜・V. 萊德尼娃（Ledeneva, L. Alena）著，王學東譯，俄羅斯社會潛規則—後蘇聯時代政治與商業領域中的尋租行為，2006年，吉林出版集團有限責任公司。

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