本論文以「2023年以哈戰爭的過去、現在與未來：戰爭的合法性與正當性」為主題，旨在透過歷史回顧、理論分析與現實檢視，全面探討該衝突的多維面向及其深遠影響。論文結構分為六章，涵蓋戰爭正當性的理論探討、歷史背景、衝突動因以及未來走向的評估。
    論文區分三大部分，第一部分以戰爭正當性的理論框架比較中國傳統「仁義之論」與西方「義戰理論」的觀點，並分析當代國際法對武裝衝突的規範。透過對戰爭目的與方法的仁道與正義思辨，建立理解2023年以哈戰爭的理論基礎。
    第二部分針對歷史脈絡與衝突緣起回顧自1917年《貝爾福宣言》、1947年《聯合國阿猶分治計畫》、1948年以阿戰爭至1973年救贖日戰爭等關鍵歷史事件，分析相關歷史事件如何演進造成當前以巴長期衝突的因素。並深入探討巴勒斯坦解放運動的發展，包括1964年巴勒斯坦解放組織成立、1974年獲得聯合國觀察員地位，以及1993年奧斯陸協議與巴勒斯坦自治政府的設立，分析前述因素如何為2023年衝突埋下伏筆。
    第三部分探究2023年以哈戰爭的動因與未來走向評，深入檢視2023年以哈戰爭的起因與概況，探討宗教與意識形態因素、地區地緣政治競爭、國際法的適用效率，以及聯合國與國際社會的角色。這些分析揭示衝突的多重驅動力量及其複雜性。評估以巴衝突的短期與長期前景，包括短期衝突的可能發展、哈瑪斯的立場與決策機制（涵蓋其合法性與合理性的思辨）、區域地緣政治的影響，以及長期和平解決方案的可行性，嘗試對以巴衝突的未來走向提供建言。
    結論與建議指出歷史背景與現實動因的交互作用對於理解以哈衝突至關重要，並提出未來衝突解決的政策建議。本論文不僅深化對2023年以哈戰爭提出學術理解，期望對中東和平進程，以及區域和平研究提供啟示意義，亦為國際關係與衝突研究領域提供實務參考。

 This dissertation examines “The 2023 Israel-Hamas War: Past, Present, and Future - The Legitimacy and Justification of War,” aiming to comprehensively explore the multidimensional aspects and far-reaching implications of this conflict through historical review, theoretical analysis, and contemporary assessment. The thesis is structured in six chapters, encompassing theoretical discussions of war justification, historical background, conflict causation, and evaluations of future trajectories.
The dissertation is organized into three principal sections. The first section establishes a theoretical framework for war justification by comparing Chinese traditional concepts of "benevolence and righteousness" with Western "just war theory," while analyzing contemporary international law governing armed conflicts. Through philosophical deliberation on the purposes and methods of warfare from perspectives of humanitarian principles and justice, this section establishes the theoretical foundation for understanding the 2023 Israel-Hamas war.
   The second section addresses historical context and conflict origins by reviewing pivotal historical events from the 1917 Balfour Declaration, the 1947 United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, to the 1973 Yom Kippur War. This analysis examines how these historical developments evolved to create the long-term framework of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The section provides in-depth exploration of the Palestinian liberation movement's development, including the establishment of the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1964, its acquisition of United Nations observer status in 1974, internal divisions, and the 1993 Oslo Accords leading to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, analyzing how these factors laid the groundwork for the 2023 conflict.
   The third section investigates the causation and future directions of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war through detailed examination of the specific origins and circumstances of the conflict. This includes exploration of religious and ideological factors, regional geopolitical competition, the effectiveness of international law application, and the roles of the United Nations and international community. These analyses reveal the multiple driving forces behind the conflict and its inherent complexity. The section evaluates both short-term and long-term prospects for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including potential short-term developments, Hamas's positions and decision-making mechanisms (encompassing deliberations on its legitimacy and rationality), regional geopolitical influences, and the feasibility of long-term peaceful resolution, attempting to provide recommendations for the future trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
   The conclusion and recommendations emphasize that the interactive effects of historical background, theoretical frameworks, and contemporary causation are crucial for understanding the Israel-Hamas conflict, while proposing policy recommendations for future conflict resolution. This dissertation not only deepens academic understanding of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war but also aspires to provide meaningful insights for Middle Eastern peace processes and peace studies in other global conflict regions, while offering practical reference for the fields of international relations and conflict studies.

目錄
緒論	1
壹、研究動機與目的	1
貳、研究背景與問題陳述	8
參、文獻檢閱	17
肆、研究途徑與研究方法	26
伍、研究範圍與限制	28
陸、章節安排	31
第一章 戰爭的正當性與合法性	34
第一節 中國仁義之論	34
第二節 西方義戰之論	38
第三節 當代武裝衝突法的規範	42
第四節 戰爭的目的與方法的仁道與正義思辨	47
第二章 2023年以哈戰爭之緣起	52
第一節 1917年11月「貝爾福宣言」	52
第二節 1947年11月「聯合國阿猶分治計畫」	60
第三節 1948年「以色列獨立戰爭」	68
第四節 1967年「六日戰爭」及1973年「救贖日戰爭」	73
第三章  2023年以哈戰爭緣起	80
第一節  1964年5月巴勒斯坦解放組織成立	80
第二節  1974年聯合國觀察員與獨立建國	85
第三節  巴解組織內部分裂	90
第四節  1993年以巴奧斯陸協議與巴勒斯坦自治政府	96
第四章  2023年以哈戰爭的起因與國際反應	102
第一節 2023年以哈戰爭的起因與概況	102
第二節 宗教與意識形態因素的影響	107
第三節 地區地緣政治競爭之影響	115
第四節 國際法對以哈衝突的制約	119
第五節、聯合國角色與國際反應	123
第伍章  以巴衝突的未來走向評估	130
第一節  短期衝突評估	130
第二節  哈瑪斯的立場與未來走向	135
第三節  區域地緣政治影響評估	140
第四節  長期解決方案前景	146
第六章  結論	152
第一節   研究結論	152
第三節   研究啟示	160
參考文獻	162
中文資料	162
英文資料	164

 
圖目錄

圖一:以色列與巴勒斯坦貿易統計圖	3
圖二:基督教、猶太教與伊斯蘭教發展關係圖:	8
圖三:貝爾福宣言策擬關係圖	57
圖四: 1945-1948年間猶太難民湧入巴勒斯坦地區統計	61
 
表目錄

表一: 1948年以色列獨立戰爭雙方兵力統計表	70
表二:巴解組織1970年代實施恐怖攻擊一覽表	85
表三: 巴解組織建國之關鍵文件一覽表	90
表四: 巴勒斯坦解放組織(PLO)八大成員派別統計表	91
表五: 奧斯陸協議臨時自治安排的原則宣言過渡性自治計畫	98 
 


 

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