綜觀世界各國政治領導人的施政滿意度，可以發現無論是總統制的美國、內閣制的英國以及雙首長制的法國，其國家的領導人滿意度趨勢在初期通常擁有較高之滿意度，但隨著執政時間的推移，滿意度逐漸下降。台灣總統自2000年以來，滿意度的變化與前述老牌民主國家相似，唯蔡英文總統的滿意度與其他總統或總理不同，在第二任期大幅回春並在保持較高的滿意度直至卸任。本研究目的在探討蔡英文總統的滿意度在其兩屆任期內的變化情況，並分析影響其滿意度的主要因素。
    本文使用政治大學選舉研究中心（TEDS）的定期電訪民調，時間涵蓋2016至2024年每一季的數據，總共31筆資料。透過運用向量自迴歸模型（Vector Autoregressive model；VAR）進行分析，來探討影響蔡英文總統施政滿意度的主要因素。本文提出五項研究假設，分別為客觀經濟環境、主觀經濟評價、兩岸關係、外交政策表現以及當前社會議題對總統滿意度之影響，其中三項得到證成。透過總體資料的時間序列分析，發現蔡英文總統的滿意度受到回顧性經濟評價、兩岸政策以及當前社會事件的動態變化影響，該結果也顯示了總統在執政時如何透過政策回應民意以獲取民眾的支持。
    總體而言，在客觀經濟環境如經濟成長率、痛苦指數沒有統計上的顯著影響，而主觀經濟評價則有的顯著的影響力，特別是當民眾認為現在的經濟狀況與過去相比有所改善時，總統的滿意度也隨之提高。在兩岸關係方面，蔡英文總統對中國的立場贏得了民眾的廣泛支持，特別是在香港反送中運動和習近平發表「告台灣同胞書」後，台灣民眾對兩岸關係的警戒程度上升。蔡英文總統在兩岸事務上的堅定態度提高了她的滿意度，尤其是捍衛台灣主權和民主價值的立場。最後，社會事件的處理對滿意度也有顯著影響。新冠疫情期間，蔡英文政府迅速採取的防疫措施得到了民眾認可，這是她施政滿意度回升的重要原因之一。疫情中的危機管理能力提升了民眾對政府處理社會事件的信心，進一步鞏固了她的總統滿意度。本文認為這些原因是蔡英文總統滿意度維持在較高水準的主要原因，而隨著總統滿意度民調逐漸累積，未來關於台灣總統的研究，對於總統施政如何反應民眾的期待，是值得再更深入探討的主題。

    An overview of the approval ratings of political leaders around the world, it can be found that whether it is in a presidential system like the United States, a parliamentary system like the United Kingdom, or a semi-presidentialism like France, the trend in satisfaction for leaders typically starts high but declines overtime. Since 2000, the approval ratings of presidents in Taiwan are similar to those of democratic countries. However, President Tsai Ing-wen's approval ratings differ from those of other presidents or prime ministers, experiencing a significant resurgence during her second term and maintaining a relatively high level of satisfaction until she left office. The purpose of this study is to explore the changes in President Tsai Ing-wen’s satisfaction during her terms and analyze the key factors that affect presidential approval.

    This study uses regular telephone surveys conducted by the Election Study Center of National Cheng-chi University (TEDS), covering quarterly data from 2016 to 2024, total 31 data points. By using the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) for analysis, we will explore the main factors that affect President Tsai Ing-wen’s satisfaction with her administration. This article proposed five research hypotheses, focusing on the impacts of objective economic conditions, subjective economic evaluations, cross-strait relations, foreign policy performance, and salient issues on presidential approval. Through time series analysis of macro data, it is found that President Tsai's approval ratings are influenced by retrospective assessment of economic, cross-strait relations policies, and dynamic changes in salient issues.

    Overall, objective economic environment such as GDP growth rate and pain index have no statistically significant impact, while subjective economic evaluation has a significant impact, especially when the people perceives that the economic situation has improved compared with the past, the president's satisfaction also increased. Regarding cross-strait relations, President Tsai Ing-wen's stance towards China has won widespread public support. Especially after the Hong Kong anti-extradition protests and Xi Jinping's "Message to Taiwan Compatriots," the Taiwanese people have become increasingly wary of cross-strait relations. President Tsai Ing-wen’s firm stance on cross-strait affairs has increased her satisfaction, especially her stance on defending Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic values. Finally, the handling of salient issues also has a significant impact on satisfaction levels. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the public recognized the rapid anti-epidemic measures adopted by Tsai Ing-wen’s government. This is one of the important reasons for the recovery in satisfaction with her governance. Her crisis management capabilities during the epidemic have enhanced people's confidence in the government's handling of social events, further consolidating her presidential approval. This study concludes that these factors are the main reasons for maintaining a high level of approval for President Tsai Ing-wen. As approval ratings gradually accumulate, future research on Taiwanese presidents should further explore how presidential policies respond to public expectations.

目次

第一章	緒論………………………………………………………………………1
第一節	研究背景與動機…………………………………………………………………1
第二節	分析架構與章節安排…………………………………………………………………12
第二章	文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………13
第一節	經濟狀況對總統滿意度的影響…………………………………………………………………16
第二節	外交事務對總統滿意度的影響…………………………………………………………………20
第三節	社會議題對於總統支持度的影響…………………………………………………………………22
第三章	研究方法…………………………………………………………………29
第一節	研究假設…………………………………………………………………29
第二節	資料來源…………………………………………………………………30
第三節	模型建構…………………………………………………………………41
第四章	研究分析與結果…………………………………………………………………45
第一節  主要變數的變化趨勢…………………………………………………………………45
第二節  分析策略與結果…………………………………………………………………56
第三節  小結…………………………………………………………………63
第五章	研究發現與討論…………………………………………………………………65
第一節  研究發現…………………………………………………………………65
第二節  對未來總統的建議…………………………………………………………………69
第三節  研究限制…………………………………………………………………71

參考文獻…………………………………………………………………79
附錄…………………………………………………………………87 

圖目次

圖1-1  美國自1980年後歷任總統支持度趨勢圖………………………………………………………………………4
圖1-2  英國歷任首相滿意度變化圖：1978-2022………………………………………………………………………6
圖1-3  法國馬克宏總統的支持率：2017-2024………………………………………………………………………7
圖1-4  台灣歷任總統滿意度趨勢圖：2000-2023………………………………………………………………………9
圖4-1  蔡英文總統滿意度趨勢圖………………………………………………………………………46
圖4-2  台灣經濟成長率：2016第二季 ~ 2024第一季………………………………………………………………………47
圖4-3  台灣痛苦指數趨勢圖：2016第二季 ~ 2024第一季………………………………………………………………………48
圖4-4  台灣股市指數：2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………49
圖4-5  一階差分後的台灣股市指數：2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………50
圖4-6  民眾對於蔡總統促進經濟的評價：2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………51
圖4-7  台灣民眾的經濟回顧評價：2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………52
圖4-8  台灣民眾的前瞻性經濟評價2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………53
圖4-9  民眾對於蔡總處理兩岸關係的評價2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………54
圖4-10 民眾對於蔡總統外交表現的評價：2016 ~ 2024………………………………………………………………………55
圖4-11 社會議題指標分數：2016第二季~ 2024第一季………………………………………………………………………56
圖5-1  不同性別對蔡總統滿意度之差異………………………………………………………………………73

表目次

表3-1  各期總統電訪案之執行日期與成功樣本數…………………………………………………………32
表3-2  各期電訪案中總統滿意度之有效樣本與無效樣本……………………………………………34
表3-3  各期電訪案中主觀經濟評價之有效樣本與無效樣本………………………………………37
表3-4  各期電訪案中兩岸與外交因素之有效樣本與無效樣本……………………………………39
表4-1  蔡英文總統滿意度之時間序列分析：2016-2024………………………………………………58
表5-1  統獨立場與總統滿意度差距…………………………………………………………………75
表5-2  政黨認同與總統滿意度之差距…………………………………………………………………76

附表1  蔡英文總統之滿意度：2016-2024…………………………………………………………………87
附表2  台灣2016第二季~2024年第一季GDP成長率…………………………………………………………………87
附表3  台灣2016第二季~2024年第一季痛苦指數…………………………………………………………………88
附表4  台灣2016年6月 ~2024年3月股市指數…………………………………………………………………88
附表5  民眾對總統在促進經濟發展的表現滿意比例………………………………………………………89
附表6  民眾臺灣現在的經濟狀況與半年前相比較好之比例…………………………………………89
附表7  民眾覺得臺灣未來半年的經濟狀況是會變好之比例…………………………………………90
附表8  社會議題編碼表…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………90

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三、政府部門、機構與其他組織的資料：

Gallup美國總統滿意度：
https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx
小笠原欣幸（2020）。新型コロナウイルスと蔡英文政権。および本記事の参考文献。
陳陸輝，2020，〈2020年至2024年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃：總統滿意度電訪及手機調查案〉，行政院國科會專題研究計畫，計畫編號：MOST 109-2740-H-004 -004 -SS4，台北：行政院國科會。
黃紀，2016，〈2016年至2020年「選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃：總統滿意度電訪及手機調查案〉，行政院國科會專題研究計畫，計畫編號：MOST 105-2420-H-004-015-SS4，台北：行政院國科會。