全球暖化與氣候變遷對水資源的衝擊日益嚴重。臺灣地形陡峭，河川短小，導致地表水資源難以有效蓄存，且豐水期與枯水期降雨量差異顯著，進一步影響地下水資源的補注。長期過度開發地下水導致地層下陷、海水倒灌等問題。因此，為了解地表水與乾旱情況對地下水資源之補注與洩降關係，以瞭解地表水對地下水之影響有助於建置地下水推估模式地表水地下水聯合運用管理。
本研究針對濁水溪流域進行分析，將其分為中上游山區、中下游扇頂、扇央與扇尾的沖積扇區域。透過徐昇氏多邊形法整合山區與雨量，並消除觀測井之高程差異，探討地表水對地下水的影響，了解不同分區的地表水與地下水之間的因果關係。根據地質條件，通過觀察地下水位變化，去除人為因素與觀測井延時的干擾，以利於傳遞熵計算。本研究針對豐水期與枯水期進行劃分，分析不同水文時期降雨對地下水位變化的影響趨勢，以提供地表水地下水聯合管理之參考策略。
研究結果顯示，降雨主要影響水位長期變化，傳遞熵能捕捉地下水位隨雨量變化的細微動態，量化各時期不同雨量對地下水位的細微影響。統計各觀測井在不同水位區間內的傳遞熵正值比例，結果顯示特定區間內地下水位受雨量影響顯著。水力傳導係數良好的地質區間內，傳遞熵正值比例較高，顯示雨量變化對地下水位影響顯著。加入流量因子後，聯合傳遞熵分析結果顯示流量顯著影響地下水位變化，特別在乾旱情境下，無降雨時，流量仍能對地下水位產生影響。
綜合分析顯示，豐水期雨量增加對地下水位補注效果顯著，尤其在水力傳導係數良好的地質區間，雨量影響更明顯。

The impact of global warming and climate change on water resources is becoming increasingly severe. Taiwan’s steep terrain and short rivers lead to ineffective storage of surface water resources. The significant differences in rainfall between wet and dry periods further affect the recharge of groundwater resources. Long-term over-extraction of groundwater has resulted in issues such as land subsidence and seawater intrusion. Therefore, understanding the relationship between surface water and groundwater recharge and discharge during drought conditions, and how surface water influences groundwater, is crucial for establishing a joint management model for surface and groundwater resources.
This study focuses on the Zhuoshui River basin, analyzing it by dividing it into the upstream mountainous area, the midstream and downstream alluvial fan regions, including the fan top, fan center, and fan tail. Using the Thiessen polygon method to integrate mountainous areas with rainfall data, and eliminating elevation differences among observation wells, this research explores the impact of surface water on groundwater and the causal relationship between them in different sub-regions. Based on geological conditions, groundwater level changes were observed while removing artificial factors and the interference of time delays in observation wells to facilitate transfer entropy calculations. This study categorizes the data into wet and dry periods to analyze the trends of rainfall’s impact on groundwater level changes during different hydrological periods, providing reference strategies for joint surface and groundwater management.
The results indicate that rainfall primarily influences long-term water level changes, and transfer entropy captures the subtle dynamics of groundwater level changes in response to rainfall, quantifying the impact of rainfall on groundwater levels. By statistically analyzing the proportion of positive transfer entropy values across different water level ranges for each observation well, it was found that groundwater levels in specific ranges are significantly affected by rainfall. In geological regions with good hydraulic conductivity, the proportion of positive transfer entropy values is higher, indicating a more significant impact of rainfall on groundwater levels. When incorporating the flow factor, joint transfer entropy analysis results show that flow significantly influences groundwater level changes. This is particularly evident in drought scenarios, where even in the absence of rainfall, flow can still affect groundwater levels.
Comprehensive analysis shows that increased rainfall during wet periods has a significant recharge effect on groundwater levels, especially in geological regions with good hydraulic conductivity, where the impact of rainfall is more pronounced.

目錄
謝誌	II
目錄	IX
圖目錄	XII
表目錄	XV
第一章　前言	1
1.1　研究背景與重要性	1
1.2　研究目的	2
第二章　文獻回顧	3
2.1　降雨、地表水與地下水變動關係之相關研究	3
2.2　傳遞熵之相關研究	6
第三章　理論概述	8
3.1　傳遞熵介紹	8
3.1.1　基礎資訊理論與熵計算	8
3.1.2　聯合熵	9
3.1.3　互資訊	10
3.1.4　條件熵	11
3.1.5　條件互資訊	11
3.1.6　傳遞熵	12
3.1.7　聯合傳遞熵	13
3.2　機率分布	14
3.2.1　伽瑪分佈	14
3.2.2　常態分布	15
3.3　相關係數	16
第四章　研究案例	17
4.1　研究區域	17
4.1.1　地理環境概況	17
4.1.2　水文地質概況	18
4.2　資料蒐集	21
4.2.1　資料篩選	21
4.3　資料前處理	23
第五章　結果與討論	29
5.1　地質條件與延時	29
5.2　雨量因子	33
5.2.1　豐枯水期分析	34
5.3　流量因子	45
第六章　結論與建議	49
6.1　結論	49
6.2　建議	50
參考文獻	52
附錄A　觀測井資料表	57
附錄B　傳遞熵、雨量與地下水位分布圖	68
附錄C　水文地質剖面	71
附錄D　傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	74
 
圖目錄
圖4-1濁水溪流域	18
圖4-2濁水溪水文地質屏狀圖	20
圖4- 3第一含水層地下水觀測井	22
圖4- 4濁水溪流域雨量站分布圖	22
圖4- 5濁水溪流域流量站分布圖	23
圖4-6雨量站徐昇多邊形面積比例	24
圖5-1水文地質剖面(西港-田中)	32
圖5-2水文地質剖面(石榴-崁腳)	32
圖5-3花壇傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	36
圖5-4文昌傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	37
圖5-5洛津豐水期傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	37
圖5-6花壇枯水期傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	38
圖5-7傳遞熵、雨量與地下水位分布圖	43
圖5-8水文地質剖面(花壇-東榮)	44
圖5-9社寮聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	47
附圖B-1傳遞熵、雨量與地下水位分布圖	70
附圖C-1水文地質剖面(全興-東石)	71
附圖C-2水文地質剖面(莿桐-三和)	71
附圖C-3水文地質剖面(宜梧-東和)	72
附圖C-4水文地質剖面(箔子-土庫)	73
附圖C-5水文地質剖面(漢寶-田中)	73
附圖D-1花壇(2005)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	74
附圖D-2花壇(2006)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	74
附圖D-3花壇(2008)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	74
附圖D-4花壇(2009)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	75
附圖D-5花壇(2010)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	75
附圖D-6花壇(2011)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	75
附圖D-7花壇(2012)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	76
附圖D-8花壇(2013)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	76
附圖D-9花壇(2014)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	76
附圖D-10花壇(2015)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	77
附圖D-11花壇(2016)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	77
附圖D-12花壇(2017)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	77
附圖D-13花壇(2018)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	78
附圖D-14花壇(2019)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	78
附圖D-15花壇(2020)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	78
附圖D-16文昌(2005)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	79
附圖D-17文昌(2006)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	79
附圖D-18文昌(2008)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	79
附圖D-19文昌(2009)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	80
附圖D-20文昌(2010)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	80
附圖D-21文昌(2011)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	80
附圖D-22文昌(2012)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	81
附圖D-23文昌(2013)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	81
附圖D-24文昌(2014)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	81
附圖D-25文昌(2015)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	82
附圖D-26文昌(2016)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	82
附圖D-27文昌(2017)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	82
附圖D-28文昌(2018)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	83
附圖D-29文昌(2019)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	83
附圖D-30文昌(2020)傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	83
附圖D-31社寮(2005)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	84
附圖D-32社寮(2006)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	84
附圖D-33社寮(2007)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	84
附圖D-34社寮(2008)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	85
附圖D-35社寮(2010)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	85
附圖D-36社寮(2011)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	85
附圖D-37社寮(2012)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	86
附圖D-38社寮(2013)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	86
附圖D-39社寮(2014)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	86
附圖D-40社寮(2015)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	87
附圖D-41社寮(2016)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	87
附圖D-42社寮(2017)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	87
附圖D-43社寮(2018)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	88
附圖D-44社寮(2019)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	88
附圖D-45社寮(2020)聯合傳遞熵之動態歷程圖	88

 
表目錄
表4-1各雨量站資料與徐昇氏多邊形權重因子	24
表4-2雨量超越機率四級距統計資料	27
表4-3各月份雨量資超越機率月筆數分布	27
表5-1各站延時天數	31
表5- 2各觀測井正值比例站比	33
表5-3各觀測井豐枯水期比例	36
表5- 4各觀測井較佳區間百分比	41
表5- 5各觀測井正值百分比	46
表5-6抽水用電量與地下水相關性	48
附表A-1雨量觀測井資料表	57
附表A-2流量觀測井資料表	59
附表A-3地下水觀測井資料表	59

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