本文的目的在於探討總體經濟環境與石油市場之間的因果關係，並同時考量美元價值和經濟政策不確定性對兩者之間的影響。本文以美國的總體環境爲主，收集了從2011年到2021年十年期間的數據。此外，有鑒於過去文獻提供了不一致的研究結果，因此在此研究中會利用DCC-GARCH模型來進行估算。實證顯示以下三點：第一，美元的價值與經濟成長及油價呈負相關；二，經濟政策不確定性會增加總體經濟和油市的波動，進而導致風險提高；三，總體經濟與油市在大多數時候是相互影響，但他們的關係是會隨時間改變的，尤其在經濟政策極度不確定的情況下，它們甚至會變得較無關聯。故結合以上三點及過往各變數對於不同事件的表現，説明了美元的價值及經濟政策不確定性對經濟與油市之間的關係是有影響的。

In this study, we aimed to examine the causal relationship between economic growth and crude oil price, as well as the intermediate effects of the USD's value and economic policy uncertainty. We used data in the US over a 10-year period from 2011 to 2021 for our estimation. Furthermore, considering the mixed results of prior studies, we applied the DCC-GARCH model. This study has three major findings. The first estimated result is consistent with previous studies in that dollar value is inversely related with economic growth and crude oil price. Second, we found that economic policy uncertainty increases the volatility and risks of both markets. Finally, our results suggest that economic growth and the crude oil market are mostly dependent on each other, but their relationship varies over time. The dependence is lower during high levels of economic policy uncertainty. Altogether, we conclude in this study that dollar value and economic policy uncertainty impact the relationship between the economic growth and crude oil price.

Table of Contents
1.	Introduction---------------------------------------------1
2.	Literature review----------------------------------------7
3.	Methodology---------------------------------------------14
3.1.	Variables Definitions-----------------------------------14
3.2.	Methods-------------------------------------------------16
4.	Data description and descriptive statistics test--------24
4.1.	Data Sources--------------------------------------------24
4.2.	Data Description----------------------------------------26
4.3.	Basic Statistics----------------------------------------28
5.	Estimated Results---------------------------------------30
5.1.	The Unit Root test--------------------------------------30
5.2.	Empirical Results---------------------------------------32
6.	Conclusion----------------------------------------------37
References------------------------------------------------------39

 
List of Figures
Figure 1: Crude Oil Prices Historical Chart-----------------------1
Figure 2: Data Trends--------------------------------------------26
Figure 3: Correlation between daily return of EG and COP---------33
Figure 4: Uncertainty in economic policy over the 10-year period-33

 
List of Tables
Table 1: Basic statistics of the return of each variable (in percent)-28
Table 2: Results from ADF unit root test------------------------------30
Table 3: Results from PP unit root test-------------------------------31
Table 4: Results from GARCH model and DCC-GARCH model-----------------32

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