隨著技術水準提升，現今的科技產品具有高可靠度的特性，若想要在給定的試驗時間內，觀測到受測樣本的失效資料進行驗收，就顯得相對困難。此時，可將受測樣本置於較高的環境應力之下，以加速受測樣本衰變，進而縮短產品的驗收時間，此即為加速應力驗收試驗 (accelerated-stress acceptance test)。本文以一組晶片電阻器衰變資料為動機例子，使用B樣條建構其衰變模型，來描述電阻值相對變化率的衰變路徑，進而求得最佳加速應力驗收時間。此外，在給定信心水準下，以拔靴法 (bootstrap method) 求得最佳加速應力驗收時間的信賴區間。最後，進行模擬分析探討模型誤判，對於參數估計準確度與精確度的影響。

With the improvement of technology, it is difficult to observe the time-to-failure data of the tested samples for conducting acceptance test within a given test time. In such cases, tested samples can be placed in a high stress environment to accelerate the decay of the products so as to shorten the acceptance time. This is called the accelerated-stress acceptance test. Motivated by a resistor data, a B-spline degradation model was constructed to describe the degradation paths of the relative changes in the resistance of the resistors. Then, the optimal accelerated-stress acceptance testing time can be obtained, and the corresponding bootstrap confidence interval can be evaluated. Finally, the impact of model mis-specification on parameter estimates was addressed through simulation studies.

1 緒論	1
1.1前言	1
1.2 文獻探討	3
1.2.1 衰變模型	3
1.2.2	B樣條	5
1.2.3	拔靴法	9
1.3 研究動機與目的	11
1.4 研究架構	15
2 最佳加速應力驗收試驗	16
2.1 B樣條衰變模型	16
2.2 最佳驗收時間	18
3 資料與模擬分析	20
3.1 資料分析	20
3.2 模擬分析	24
4 結論與未來發展	27
參考文獻	28

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