本研究的目的是弄清楚美國跟中國貿易的赤字是否由於不平的貨幣比率或者由於微分的儲蓄率形成。 研究壞繞兩個時期： 1. 1997-2017； 2. 2004-2017. 資料是按照每個月安排的。 根據作者的算， 貿易流的收入效果比較大並且具有時間的穩定性。 進口確定符合經濟的發展， 因此中國的更快的發展會取消跟美國的貿易的赤字。 價格比收入變化得更快。 一般來講， 人民幣的實在的價值跟中國對美國的進口的水準有負面的關係。 從進口與出口價格指數角度來看， 可以發現美國從中國的進口收到進口價格指數的深刻的影響: 價格指數越高，進口容量越低。儲蓄率對GDP不重要或者不屬於期望的效果。中國的FOREX 積累 對美國的出口不會有很大的影響。

This thesis attempts to answer the question whether the merchandise US trade deficit with China is due to an artificially high exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, or whether such deficits are due mainly to differential saving rates. The results encompass two time periods: 1997-2017 and 2004-2017 and the data frequency is monthly. According to the calculations, income effects on trade flows are large and consistent over time. Imports certainly respond to growth in the economy and faster growth in China would help to eliminate the trade deficit with the US. The price variable is less consistent than the income variable. In general, the real value of the RMB is negatively related to the flow of imports from China into the US. With regards to the issue of import and export price indexes, we find that US imports from China are very much impacted by changes in the import price index: a higher price index leads to a lower import flow. Inclusion of saving rates and debt to GDP ratios are either not significant or not signed as expected. Inclusion of variables of forex accumulation by China is not well correlated with exports to US.

Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction	1
1.1 Research Question	1
1.2 Research Motivation	4
1.3 Research Methodology	7
1.5 Summary of Results	10
Chapter 2 Literature Review	12
2.1 The Problem of Data	13
2.2 Political Aspects of the US-China Trade Deficit	14
2.3  The Elasticities Controversy and the US-China Trade Deficit	16
Chapter 3  Theoretical Issues to Consider	20
3.1  Early US Deficit Experiences	20
3.2  A Closer Look at the Three Basic Theories	21
3.3  Summary of Theoretical Implications	27
Chapter 4.  Empirical Model and Findings	31
4.1  The Structure of the Empirical Model	31
4.2  Data and Transformations	34
4.3  Statistical Estimation and Model Validation	49
4.4  Discussion of Empirical Results	54
Chapter 5 Conclusions	64
Appendix 1	69
Appendix 2	79
References	82

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1: Summary of Elasticities	18
Table 2: Summary on Elasticities	19
Table 3 Granger Causality Tests	34
Table 4: Granger Causality Tests	34
Table 5: Comparison of Macroeconomics	39
Table 6: Unit Root Tests on Principal Variables –	48
Table 7: Correlations 1997-2017	59
Table 8: Correlations 2004-2017	59

Figure 1 log of Real US Trade with China (1997-2017)	8
Figure 2 The widening trade gap between US and China	12
Figure 3: The Real Exchange Rate of 1 Ream RMB in terms of Real USD	44
Figure 4: US Percentage Trade Deficit/GDP with China	45
Figure 5: Real US Price Indexes for Imports from China and Exports to China	46

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