鑑於近年來臺灣民眾經歷多次水情狀況以及面對水情狀況之時政府採限水措施手段，為更加了解臺灣民生用水狀況之影響，本研究以動態調整模型並運用混合群組平均數（Pooled Mean Group，PMG）估計方法進行實證分析。
 研究資料使用自2015年1月份至2021年10月份臺灣本島19個縣市資料。本研究於模型中加入不同的水情燈號及限水措施階段作為分類，以進一步探討三階段限水對不同情況下用水需求的影響。
    透過實證結果發現：
（1）水價彈性為無彈性且並未顯著，不顯著可能肇因於臺灣水價因長期偏低未能反映其合理性，缺乏節水誘因。
（2）所得彈性係數估計值為正顯著，反映隨著經濟發展，人們的所得增加，生活水平也會提升。
（3）關於限水措施，在實施三階段限水手段，受階段限水手段影響之縣市皆有減少用水量，然而，能讓未受影響之縣市民眾有自發性減少用水之行為只有實施第三階段的分區供水之時。
（4）一階、二階及三階限水期間，分別實現了約1%、2%以及8%的限水效果。

This study aims to investigate the effects of water price and water restrictions on the residential water demand. Given the repeated instances of droughts experienced by the Taiwanese people in recent years, along with the government's implementation of water restriction  during such situations, this research seeks to gain a deeper understanding of the impact on domestic water usage in Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted by  using the dynamic adjustment model and employing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method.The study utilizes data from January 2015 to October 2021 for 19 cities in Taiwan. Different water supply monitoring index and stages of water restriction are incorporated into the models as classifications, with the aim of further exploring the impact of three-stage water restrictions on water demand under variousy circumstances. Based on the empirical results, the following findings are observed: (1) Water price elasticity is inelastic and not statistically significant. The lack of significance may stem from Taiwan's prolonged period of low water prices, which fails people to conserve water. s incentives for water conservation. (2) Income elasticity is positively significant, reflecting that higher people's income will lead to higher water usage. (3) The implementation of the three-stage water restriction measures results in a reduction in water consumption for both affected and unaffected counties. However, the voluntary reduction in water usage is only significant among unaffected counties during the implementation of the third-stage district water supply restriction. (4) The first, second, and third stages of water restrictions respectively achieve approximately 1%, 2%, and 8% reduction in water usage.

目錄

第一章	緒論	1
第一節	研究動機與目的	1
第二節	研究架構	6
第二章	文獻回顧	8
第一節	水價與所得對用水量影響之相關研究	8
第二節	水資源管理措施對用水量影響之相關研究	11
第三節	氣候變數對用水量影響之相關研究	13
第三章	研究方法	16
第一節	實證模型	17
第二節	估計方法PMG （Pooled Mean Group）	20
第四章	資料分析與敘述統計	22
第五章	迴歸分析與實證結果	31
第六章	結論與建議	38
參考文獻	41

圖目錄

圖 1-1歷年臺灣每人每日生活用水量	5
圖1-2 水情燈號意義及對應措施	5
圖1-3研究架構	7

表目錄

表2-1 部分實證研究價格/所得彈性	15
表4-1 研究之變數	28
表4-2 敘述統計	29
表4-3 各縣市所採用測站	30
表5-1迴歸結果	37

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