§ 瀏覽學位論文書目資料
  
系統識別號 U0002-1602202415484000
論文名稱(中文) 中國在波斯灣的戰略:能源、貿易、「一帶一路」倡議和安全要務
論文名稱(英文) China's Strategy in The Persian Gulf: Energy, Trade, the Belt and Road Initiative, and Security Imperatives
第三語言論文名稱
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中文) 國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
系所名稱(英文) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
外國學位學校名稱
外國學位學院名稱
外國學位研究所名稱
學年度 112
學期 1
出版年 113
研究生(中文) 方雅立
研究生(英文) Ali Hassan Yousif Fattah
學號 808335011
學位類別 博士
語言別 英文
第二語言別
口試日期 2024-01-05
論文頁數 399頁
口試委員 口試委員 - 劉廣華(kuanghua@mail.mcu.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 丁樹範(ding@nccu.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 李大中(126251@mail.tku.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 汪毓瑋(una254@mail.cpu.edu.tw)
指導教授 - 黃介正(sinostrategy@hotmail.com)
關鍵字(中) 中國
波斯灣
能源
貿易
一帶一路
安全
關鍵字(英) China
Persian Gulf
Energy
Trade
the BRI
Security
第三語言關鍵字
學科別分類
中文摘要
波斯灣地區是中國戰略規劃的重要部分,特別是「一帶一路」策略。中國對該地區的參與顯著增加。波斯灣地區是中國快速經濟成長的重要能源來源,包括石油和天然氣。本研究旨在全面了解中國在波斯灣的戰略重點,包括:貿易、能源、安全,以及「一帶一路」實現區域擴張。
本研究運用次級資料進行整合分析,內容涵蓋質性和量性資料。次級資料來源包括學術電子資料庫、網路、書籍,以及海灣國家政府和中國政府所發布的官方統計數據、報告和電子資源。同時,作者也搜尋世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization, WTO)、國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, IMF)、美國能源資訊管理局(Energy Information Administration, EIA)和國際能源署(International Energy Agency, IEA)等重要貿易和能源國際組織資料庫。
研究結果發現,能源動態方面,過去幾十年來,中國從波斯灣地區進口能源持續增加,主要能源來源為沙烏地阿拉伯、伊朗、伊拉克,中國的多元能源結構有助於保障其能源的穩定。貿易動態方面,中國與波斯灣國家經濟連結不斷深化。中國對該地區的基礎設施、技術和製造業的投資,有助於波斯灣地區經濟多元化。「一帶一路」倡議更促進中國與波斯灣國家間貿易的互聯互通,尤其中國增加對港口基礎設施和物流網絡的投資,有助於擴大雙邊貿易。中國與波斯灣國家建立雙邊協議和戰略夥伴關係,以確保能源供應的穩定。除此之外,中國對波斯灣國家的長期合約和投資,也反映出中國對確保可靠和多元能源組合的承諾。中國對波斯灣能源的日益依賴影響全球能源市場,並使中國成為足以擾動石油和天然氣市場動態的要角,成為影響生產者和消費者的關鍵。
波斯灣地區在中國的戰略中至關重要。波斯灣地區是中國的主要能源來源,是中國產品的重要市場,以及是中國投資的目標。此外,海灣地區的戰略位置對「一帶一路」建設發揮重要作用。
英文摘要
The Persian Gulf has become crucial in China's strategic perception, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's involvement in the Persian Gulf region has increased significantly. The Gulf region is a vital energy source for China's rapidly growing economy, including oil and natural gas. This study aimed to comprehensively understand China's policies and strategies toward the Persian Gulf region, especially in energy, trade, the BRI, and security imperatives. 
    This study used secondary data for integrated analysis, covering qualitative and quantitative data. Secondary sources included academic electronic databases, the Internet, books, and official statistics or reports published by the governments of the Gulf countries and China. At the same time, the author also searched the databases of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). 
    The study results showed that in terms of energy dynamics, China's energy imports from the Persian Gulf region have continued to increase in the past few decades. The primary energy sources are Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. China's diversified energy portfolio contributes to its energy security. Regarding trade dynamics, economic ties between China and Persian Gulf countries have deepened. Chinese investments in infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing contribute to economic diversification in the Gulf region. The BRI has facilitated enhanced trade connectivity between China and the Persian Gulf. Increased investments in port infrastructure and logistical networks contribute to expanding bilateral trade. China has established bilateral agreements and strategic partnerships with the Gulf countries to secure stable energy supplies. Long-term contracts and investments in upstream projects reflect China's commitment to ensuring a reliable and diversified energy portfolio. China's increasing reliance on Persian Gulf energy has influenced global energy markets, making China a key player in shaping the dynamics of oil and gas markets and impacting producers and consumers.
    The study has concluded that the Persian Gulf region is vital in Chinese strategic perception. It has been identified as China's primary energy source, a critical market for Chinese products, and a target for Chinese investment. Additionally, the strategic location of the Gulf region has been shown to play a vital role in implementing the BRI.
第三語言摘要
論文目次
Contents
Acknowledgment	I
Contents	VI
List of Figures	IX
List of Tables	XI
Chapter 1. Introduction	1
1.1 Introduction	1
1.1.1 Introducing the Persian Gulf	2
1.1.2 Gulf Population and Religion	4
1.1.3 Research Motivations	6
1.1.4 Research Objectives	9
1.1.5 Timeframe	10
1.2 Literature Review	11
1.2.1 Introduction	11
1.2.2 Complex Interdependence (Sub-theory)	14
1.2.3 Significant Literature	35
1.3 Theoretical Framework	51
1.3.1 Liberalist Theory	52
1.3.2 Neoliberalism	56
1.3.3 Complex Interdependence: A Sub-theory of Neoliberalism	59
1.3.4 Complex Interdependence and China	64
1.3.5 The Complex Interdependence Theory and Sino-Gulf States Relations	68
1.4 Methodology	70
1.4.1 Research Method	70
1.4.2 Research Design	75
1.4.3 Data Collection	78
1.4.4 Data Analysis	81
1.5 Variables, Questions, and Hypotheses	82
1.5.1 Variables	82
1.5.2 Questions and Hypothesis	83
1.6 Structure of Dissertation	84
Chapter 2. The Strategic Importance of the Persian Gulf	87
2.1 The Strategic Importance of the Persian Gulf	87
2.2 Brief Overview of the Beginnings of Oil Discovery in the Persian Gulf	88
2.3 Persian Gulf Oil	92
2.4 The Unites States in the Persian Gulf	96
2.5 China and the Persian Gulf	102
2.6 China and the United States in the Middle East (Different Approaches)	106
2.7 China's Diplomatic Relations with the Persian Gulf Countries: A Historical Background	114
Chapter 3. Energy	120
3.1 China and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Widen Energy Relations	120
3.2 Energy: The Main Basis of China-Iraq Relations	151
3.3 Energy: Backbone of Growing Economic Ties between China and Iran	153
Chapter 4. Trade Dynamics	158
4.1 China-GCC Trade Ties	158
4.2 China-Iraq Trade Relations	181
Chapter 5. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)	183
5.1 The BRI and GCC Countries	183
5.1.1 Kuwait Vision 2035 and the BRI	183
5.1.2 Kuwait importance in China's perspective	185
5.1.3 Chinese investments in the Special Economic Zone Authority at Duqm in Oman	186
5.1.4 The strategic importance of Oman in the BRI	191
5.1.5 The strategic importance of the UAE to China	195
5.1.6 Qatar National Vision 2030	197
5.1.7 The strategic importance of Qatar LNG to China	200
5.1.8 Bahrain Economic Vision 2030	201
5.1.9 Bahrain in China's perspective	202
5.1.10 China’s BRI and Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030)	203
5.2 The BRI and Iraq's energy sector	207
5.2.2 China's Growing Role in Iraq's Energy Sector	214
5.2.3 Iraq in Chinese strategic perception	217
5.3 Iran-China cooperation under the BRI	219
5.3.1 The 25-year Iran-China strategic agreement	223
Chapter 6. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia	229
6.1 Two wings of the Muslim world	230
6.2 Maximizing regional power	231
6.3 Iran's nuclear program	235
6.4 Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict	239
6.5 Role of China in Iranian Strategic Perception	241
6.6 Role of China in Saudi Strategic Perception	246
6.7 Sino-Saudi Military and Security Cooperation	250
6.8 Sino-Iran Military cooperation	255
Chapter 7. China: A Strategic Broker in the Persian Gulf	261
7.1 China’s Strategy for Balancing Relations Between Iran and the KSA	261
7.2 China and the Iran–Saudi Rapprochement	271
7.3 China: A Strong Broker in the Persian Gulf	276
7.4 Persian Gulf in Chinese Strategic Perception	279
Chapter 8. China: Energy Security and Overseas Ports	295
8.1 China and Energy Security	295
8.1.1 China and Energy Security	298
8.1.2 Straits and their importance	301
8.1.3 The Strait of Hormuz (A Strategic Corridor)	302
8.1.4 China and Strait of Hormuz	304
8.2 China and Overseas Ports	307
8.2.1 Chabahar Port	311
8.2.2 Jask Port	316
8.2.3 Jazan Port	319
8.2.4 Khalifa Port	324
8.2.5 Duqm port	331
Chapter 9. Conclusion	339

	 
List of Figures
Figure 1. Persian Gulf	4
Figure 2. Kantian Triangle.	55
Figure 3. Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandab.	93
Figure 4. Major lanes of global oil shipments; The strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz.	94
Figure 5. Trade between China and Saudi Arabia 2009-2022.	125
Figure 6. Shows the China's top crude oil suppliers in the Persian Gulf in 2021.	128
Figure 7. Reactors operating in the UAE.	132
Figure 8. The percentage of Kuwait oil and non-oil exports to China 2013-2021.	135
Figure 9. Oman crude oil destination 2018-2022.	137
Figure 10. Oman crude oil exports to China 2013-2022.	138
Figure 11. LNG imports for a selection of importers, 2014-2024.	141
Figure 12. China’s Top Sources of LNG Imports in 2021 in billion cubic meters (bcm).	145
Figure 13. Coal percentage of China’s total energy consumption 2013-2023.	147
Figure 14. Total primary energy consumption in China by fuel type 2021.	148
Figure 15. the Chinese Annual Oil Purchases from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE 2014 - 2020.	155
Figure 16. China's top crude oil suppliers in 2020.	156
Figure 17. UAE-China non-oil trade volume 2013-2022.	161
Figure 18. China FDI to the UAE 2011-2021.	164
Figure 19. Non-oil trade volume between China and Kuwait 2013-2022.	170
Figure 20. Total Trade volume between China and Kuwait 2012-2022.	170
Figure 21. Non-oil trade volume between China and Oman 2016-2021.	172
Figure 22. China total FDI 2019-Q1/2023.	173
Figure 23. Increasing exchanges between China and Qatar.	176
Figure 24. China-Qatar trade volume in the years 2004, 2014, 2021, and 2022.	177
Figure 25. Non-oil trade exchange between China and Bahrain 2013-2022.	180
Figure 26. China and Iraq Trade Volume 2013-2022.	182
Figure 27. Total FDI in SEZAD in 2019.	189
Figure 28. The most critical ports in which China presences.	194
Figure 29. China Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Iraq 2013-2021.	210
Figure 30. The value of contracts awarded to Chinese companies in Iraq 2013-2021.	210
Figure 31. The percentage of Chinese investments in the energy sector in Iraq compared to other countries 2009-2021.	211
Figure 32. Chinese BRI engagement across different regions 2013-2021.	213
Figure 33. Chinese BRI investment and cooperation 2021 by region.	213
Figure 34. Timeline of the strategic agreement between China and Iran.	224
Figure 35. Saudi Arabia and Iran Defense Expenditure 2010-2020.	238
Figure 36. Trade volume between Saudi Arabia and China in 2016–2022.	248
Figure 37. Saudi crude oil exports to China in 2016–2021.	249
Figure 38. Annual oil purchased by China from Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2014–2021.	265
Figure 39. China’s trade volume with Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2016–2022.	266
Figure 40. Gulf Cooperation Council oil exports in 2016–2021.	283
Figure 41. Chinese oil consumption in 2012–2022 and predicted consumption in 2023.	283
Figure 42. China’s top crude oil suppliers in the Persian Gulf in 2021.	284
Figure 43. China, GCC countries' visions.	288
Figure 44. Comparison of Chinese trade volume with ASEAN, EU, US, Middle East, Africa, and Persian Gulf 2013-2022.	294
Figure 45. The world's significant Choke Points.	302
Figure 46. Gwadar Port in Pakistan and Chabahar port in Iran.	314
Figure 47. Iran opens first oil export terminal outside Strait of Hormuz in 2021.	319
Figure 48. Jazan port in Saudi Arabia.	324
Figure 49. The Biggest Ports in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 	327
Figure 50. Duqm port in Oman.	333

 
List of Tables
Table 1.  Demographic of Persian Gulf countries.	5
Table 2.  Structure of the literature review.	13
Table 3.  Characteristics of Quantitative, Qualitative, and Mixed Research Methods.	74
Table 4.  Diplomatic relations between China and Gulf states.	103
Table 5.  Value of Saudi Arabian Fossil oil exports to China 2000-2020/ $bn.	126
Table 6.  OPEC proven crude oil reserves, at end 2021 (billion barrels, OPEC share).	134
Table 7.  The percentage of Iraq oil and non-oil exports to China 2013-2021.	153
Table 8.  China's Trade Partnership Level with Bahrain 2017-2022.	180
Table 9.  Transfer of major weapons from China to Saudi Arabia, 1986-2017.	255
Table 10. The biggest projects globally.	290
Table 11. China's Strategic partnership Grades (examples).	292
Table 12. China's Persian Gulf Partnership.	293

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Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi and Andrew Adewale Alola, 2020. “Crude Oil Production in the Persian Gulf Amidst Geopolitical Risk, Cost of Damage and Resources Rents: Is There Asymmetric Inference?.” Resources Policy 69, pp. 1.
  Osiewicz, Przemyslaw, 2018. “The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Implications for Iran-China Relations,” Przegląd Strategiczny 11, pp. 221-232.
  Potter, Lawrence Goddard, 2017. “Society in the Persian Gulf: Before and After Oil,” Occasional Paper, no. 18, pp. 21.
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Schade, Abigail, 2007. “China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World,” Journal of International Affairs 60, no. 2, pp. 223.
Sim, Li-Chen, and Jonathan Fulton, 2021. “Implications of a Regional Order in Flux: Chinese and Russian Relations with the United Arab Emirates.” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 34, no. 4, pp. 8-11.  
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Yang, Zishi, et al., 2020. “The China-Saudi Arabia (Jizan) Industrial Park under the Belt and Road Initiative,” Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 14, no. 4, pp. 5.
Yenigun, M. Cuneyt and Musallam Suhail Maashani, 2020.  “China’s Rising in The Gulf and Relations with Oman,” PalArch's Journal of Archaeology of Egypt 17, no.7, pp. 7747-7766.
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  Zhongping, Feng and Huang Jing, 2014. "China’s strategic partnership diplomacy: engaging with a changing world.", European Strategic Partnerships Observatory (ESPO), Working Paper no. 8, pp. 7-8.

Reports
  Borger, Julian, 2021/11/19. “Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes” report, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/chinese-military-base-uae-construction-abandoned-us-intelligence-report.
Chow, Loletta, 2023/05. “Overview of China outbound investment Q1 2023.” A report; Ernst & Young Global, https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_cn/topics/coin/ey-overview-of-china-outbound-investment-of-q1-2023-bilingual.pdf.
Davis, Marybeth, et al., 2013/04. “China-Iran: A limited Partnership,” US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China-Iran--A%20Limited%20Partnership.pdf.
  Fulton, Jonathan, 2019/06. “China's Changing Role in the Middle East,” A report; Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for The Middle East, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org.pdf.
  Green, Will and Taylore Roth, 2021/06/21. “China-Iran Relations: A Limited but Enduring Strategic Partnership,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/China-Iran_Relations.pdf.
  Gidwani, Arjun, 2020. “The Duqm Port, Oman and the Three Global Powers: China, USA, and India,” A report by Chennai center for China Studies C3S Issue Brief:1, https://www.c3sindia.org/post/the-duqm-port-oman-and-the-three-global-powers-china-usa-and-india-by-arjun-gidwani.
  Rashid, Yasir 2020/04. “The Strategic Importance of Jask Port,” A report; The Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), https://iramcenter.org/uploads/files/The_Strategic_Importance_of_Jask_Port-WebPDF_v21.pdf.
  Niazi, Khizar, 2009. “Kuwait Looks towards the East: Relations with China.” The Middle East Institute Policy Brief, no. 26, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/106361/No_26_Kuwait_looks_towards_the_east.pdf.
  Scobell, Andrew and Alireza Nader, 2016. “China in the Middle East: The Wary Dragon.” (California: RAND Corporation), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1229.html.
Wang, Christoph Nedopil, 2022. “China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2021.” (Shanghai: Fudan University), https://greenfdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Nedopil-2022_BRI-Investment-Report-2021.pdf.
  Wezeman, Pieter D., 2018/12/14. “Saudi Arabia, armaments and conflict in the Middle East,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (sipri), https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2018/saudi-arabia-armaments-and-conflict-middle-east.
2021/05/12. “Report on International Religious Freedom,” U.S. Department of State , https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-report-on-international-religious-freedom/oman/.
2023/06/15.  “Economic Report 2023-Kuawit,” Embassy of Switzerland in Kuwait, https://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAIQw7AJahcKEwiwyZe9-9.
Argus, 2022/02/09. “The Crude Report: China re-stocking their shelves,” Argus, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/blog/2022/february/9/podcast-the-crude-report-china-restocking-their-shelves.
2021/02. “Annual report 2021,” Ministry of Energy and Minerals of Oman, https://mem.gov.om/Portals/0/MEM%20ARB%20AR%2021.pdf.
2023/02. “Gas Market Report, Q1-2023.” International Energy Agency (IEA), https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c6ca64dc-240d-4a7c-b327-e1799201b98f/GasMarketReportQ12023.pdf.


Theses and Dissertations
Barillé, Marie, 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative: Case Study on Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Pakistan. Thesis, Erasmus University, Netherlands.
Grumet, Tali Rachel, 2015. New Middle East Cold War: Saudi Arabia and Iran's Rivalry. Thesis, University of Denver, Colorado, USA.
Majin, Shokrollah Kamari, 2019. Evolution Of Iran-Saudi Relations Since 1979. Diss., Faculty of Political Sciences and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
Wijitthaworn, Jittawat, 2018. Complex Interdependence Amidst International Conflicts: A case study of ASEAN-China relation in the South China Sea issue during 2013-2016. Thesis, Thammasat University, Thailand.

Studies
  Fulton, Jonathan, 2020/08. “Strangers to Strategic Partners: Thirty Years of Sino-Saudi Relations,” (Atlantic Council), https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Sino-Saudi-Relations_WEB.pdf 
  Green, Will and Roth Taylore,2021. “China-Iran Relations: A Limited but Enduring Strategic Partnership,” (U.S-China Economic and Security review Commission, Washington, D.C.), https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/China-Iran_Relations.pdf.
Hadzikadunic, Emir, 2022. “Iran-Saudi Ties: Can History Project Their Trajectory?” (Singapore: the Middle East institute at the National University of Singapore, 2022), https://mei.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Insight-215-Saudi-Iranian-Ties.pdf.
  Harold, Scott W. and Nader Alireza, 2012. “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations,” (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation), https://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP351.html.

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