§ 瀏覽學位論文書目資料
  
系統識別號 U0002-1402202211183000
DOI 10.6846/TKU.2022.00331
論文名稱(中文) 代理人基模型運用與實驗經濟學之論文集
論文名稱(英文) Essays on the Application of Agent-Based Models and Experimental Economics
第三語言論文名稱
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中文) 產業經濟學系博士班
系所名稱(英文) Department of Industrial Economics
外國學位學校名稱
外國學位學院名稱
外國學位研究所名稱
學年度 110
學期 1
出版年 111
研究生(中文) 楊志華
研究生(英文) Chih-Hwa Yang
學號 805540050
學位類別 博士
語言別 繁體中文
第二語言別
口試日期 2022-01-14
論文頁數 92頁
口試委員 口試委員 - 葉佳炫 ( imcyeh@saturn.yzu.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 陳玟妤 (wenyuchen@mail.nptu.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 陳怡妃(enfa@mail.tku.edu.tw)
口試委員 - 李順發 (alphalee@mail.tku.edu.tw)
指導教授 - 池秉聰 (chie@mail.tku.edu.tw)
關鍵字(中) 信息不對稱
基於代理的建模
預測市場
市場效率
電動汽車
蓄電池
關鍵字(英) Information Asymmetry
Agent-Based Modeling
Prediction Market
Market Efficiency
Electric Vehicles
Storage Batteries
第三語言關鍵字
學科別分類
中文摘要
本論文集分為三篇研究
第一篇為中古車市場動態模擬:代理人基建模方法之應用。
第二篇 實驗性預測市場的效率:公開資訊、信念演變和人格特質。
第三篇 研究電動車未來展望分析-以創新擴散理論為依據。

第一篇 中古車市場動態模擬:代理人基建模方法之應用,本研究以(Kim,1985) 的模型出發,建立一個動態的中古車市場模型,考慮資訊不對稱、車輛的耐用年限、折舊、消費者所得與偏好、中古車商、新車製造商的策略,將以模型驗證此趨勢及分析未來的產業發展研究中古車市場的成功條件及廠商競爭的動態。本研究顯示向消費者提供完全透明的資訊並不是車商最有利的策略,而較低的訂價或亦是在相同的情形之下提供更好的品質,則是車商可以取得競爭優勢的方向。由我們的模擬分析可知,資訊透明與價格競爭皆是中古車商致命的弱點,從本研究也可以看到原廠車商兼營中古車市場其實不一定是最佳的策略。

第二篇 實驗性預測市場的效率:公開資訊、信念演變和人格特質,本文研究市場匯集資訊的能力,使市場上產生的價格包含所有可用資訊的最佳估計。本文研究個人如何依據市場價格從其公開和私人資訊中“更新”其最初的信念。特別是本文觀察於個人在公開資訊與私人資訊之間的權重。同樣,通過擁有私人資訊的交易者數量增加,市場中的資訊對市場價格的品質具有正面影響。最後,如果在市場上“高效而有組織”的交易者的比例各不相同,交易者的人格特質會產生一些正面影響。
   
第三篇 電動車未來展望分析-以擴散理論為依據。本文從討論電動汽車的沿革再分析電動汽車未來發展,並以波特五力分析圖,說明五個影響電動車產業發展決定性的因素,還有不可忽視的就是電動汽車的儲能電池。其中最關鍵的是電池技術有待突破,目前占電動車成本三分之一以上的電池,也是讓電動車的價格無法下降的主因。電池的持續性,壽命、價格將影響電動汽車的發展,還有充電站普及化,各家廠商尚未統一。這些問題將會是決定電動車的發展速度最主要因素,亦將成為各車廠競相全力提升的目標,本研究將以Bass擴散理論及產品生命週期進行分析電動車的展望及相關進展。
英文摘要
Essay 1: Although used car market has grown rapidly over two decades in Taiwan, quality and price are the main criteria that consumers concerned when buying a used car. Due to lack of a used car certified standard, the reputation among car dealers varies. How to verify the quality of used cars is a crucial factor for buyers. Two decades ago, some unethical used car dealers sold vehicles with hidden issues, for instance, accidents or damage vehicles. These problems had restrained the growing of used car markets. Akerlof (1970) pointed out that the used car market will be failure due to the information asymmetry. The quality uncertainty makes consumers’ rights in the used car market cannot be reasonably protected, and often causes disputes after sales. Kim (1985) suggested that the information asymmetry in the used car market is not only limited to the used car buyers, but also many individual used car sellers. Inspired by the model of Kim (1985), this study established a dynamic model of a used car market. The model considered information asymmetry, the life of the vehicle, depreciation, consumer income, preference, the strategies of the used car dealers and new car manufacturers to identify the business model and the competition advantage of used car industry. This study 
will validate the trend with agent-based models and analyze the future of used car dynamics.

Essay 2: This paper examines the ability of markets to aggregate information so that the price generated from the market contains the best estimate of all the available information. The paper investigates how individuals “update” their initial beliefs from their public and private information in light of market prices. In particular, the paper looks at individuals' weighting of public information versus private information. Also, the volume of information in the market via an increased number of traders with private information has a positive impact on the quality of the market price. Lastly, the personality traits of the traders seem to provide some positive impact if the traders are diverse in terms of the proportion of “efficient and organized”traders in the market.

Essay 3: This article discusses the evolution of electric vehicles and analyzes the development of electric vehicles. Another key issue that cannot be ignored is the automotive energy storage battery. The durability, life, and price of batteries will affect the development of electric vehicles, as well as the popularization of charging stations. These issues will be the important factors in determining the development speed of electric vehicles, and they will also become the goal of various car manufacturers to strive for improvement. This study will analyze the prospects and related developments of electric vehicles.
第三語言摘要
論文目次
目錄                                                                     I

表目錄                                                                   V

圖目錄   
                                                                VI
第一章         本論文介紹                                                1     

第二章         中古車市場動態模擬:代理人基建模方法之應用                4
  2.1          研究背景與目的                                        4
    2.1.1      研究背景                                                  4
    2.1.2      研究目的                                                  6
  2.2         文獻探討                                                   7
    2.2.1      資訊不對稱                                               8
    2.2.2      影響消費者決策之因素                                     9
      2.2.2.1  知覺風險                                                 10
      2.2.2.2  品牌形象與信任                                           10
      2.2.2.3  價格與服務                                               11
      2.2.2.4  中古車聯盟與售後服務                                    12
      2.2.2.5  所得與資訊的不對稱影響中古車市場規模                    13
  2.3         研究方法                                               13
    2.3.1      模型                                                    14
    2.3.2      代理人基中古車市場                                      16
      2.3.2.1  代理人                                                  17
      2.3.2.2  代理人限制及策略                                        18
  2.4.         實驗設計與模擬結果                                      21
    2.4.1      實驗設計                                                21
    2.4.2      模擬結果                                                24
  2.5         結論                                                    32

第三章         實驗性預測市場的效率:公開資訊、信念演變和人格特質      34
  3.1	       前言                                                    34
  3.2          預測市場之文獻綜述                                      35
  3.3          實驗設計                                                37
    3.3.1      受試者                                                  38
    3.3.2      資訊發佈設計                                            38
    3.3.3      受試者的信念                                            39
    3.3.4      交易                                                    39
    3.3.5      清算                                                    41
  3.4          實驗數據分析                                              41
    3.4.1      市場效率                                                42
    3.4.2      回歸模型                                                46
    3.4.3      人格特質的異質性                                          47
    3.4.4      假設                                                    48
  3.5          結果與討論                                                49
    3.5.1      公開資訊                                                 52
    3.5.2      交易者人數                                              53
    3.5.3      性別差異                                                53
    3.5.4      限價單比率                                              54
    3.5.5      人格特質的差異性                                        54
    3.5.6      重複交易的經驗程度                                      54
  3.6          結論                                                    55

第四章         電動車的未來展望分析:以創新擴散理論為依據               57
  4.1          介紹                                                    57
    4.1.1      研究背景與動機                                          57
  4.2          文獻探討                                                59
  4.3          模型                                                    61
    4.3.1      Bass模型簡介                                           61
    4.3.2      電動車的生命週期-新創期、成長期、成熟期、衰退期         62
      4.3.2.1  實驗室-測試者簡介                                       64
      4.3.2.2  早期成長期-早期消費者簡介                               65
      4.3.2.3  成長期-消費者簡介                                       69
      4.3.2.4  早期衰退期-晚期消費者簡介                               71
      4.3.2.5  衰退期與博物館期-落後者簡介                             74
  4.4          研究分析                                                76
    4.4.1      利用波特五力分析電動車產業的概況                        76
    4.4.2      產業興起要素 RMCE 分析                                  79
  4.5          結論                                                    81

第五章         綜合結論                                                84

參考文獻                                                               86

表目錄
表 2.1     新車與中古車領牌數                                          7
表 2.2     實驗參數設計表                                              22
表 3.1     市場效率測試                                                45
表 3.2     敘述統計表                                                  48
表 3.3     基本面偏誤的迴歸結果                                          50
表 3.4     信念偏誤的迴歸結果                                          51
表 3.5    回合固定效果(αt) 和 趨勢迴歸結果                           52
表 4.1     各種能源自用小客車新增掛牌數                                67
表 4.2     電動車的優缺點比較表                                        74

圖目錄
圖  2.1    代理人狀態轉換圖                                            16
圖  2.2    新車與中古車各期成交量                                      24
圖  2.3    新車與中古車各期銷售額                                      24
圖  2.4    消費者各期總效用                                            26
圖  2.5    中古車商各期平均營運資金餘額                                27
圖  2.6    原廠車商各期平均營運資金餘額                                28
圖  2.7    車輛各期平均年數                                            29
圖  2.8    車輛各期平均維護水準                                        30
圖  2.9    車輛各期平均交易次數                                        30
圖  2.10   消費者採用策略所占之比例                                    31                                
圖  3.1    兩種處理的定價誤差 (pc – FV)(y 軸)與每個真實值 (K)(x 軸)   43
圖  4.1    電動車不同階段的表示圖                                      63
圖  4.2    自用小客車新增掛牌數                                        67
圖  4.3    2016~2019 全球各國電動車銷售量                              72
圖  4.4    透過這個波特五力分析圖                                       77
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