本篇論文旨在探討成對國家的相對環保嚴格程度對其貿易強度的影響。本文研究方法沿用Baier和Bergstrand（2007）的結構引力模型（Structural gravity model）作為實證基礎，並運用卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法（Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, PPML）進行模型估計。採用1980年至2006年跨國-跨產業別雙邊貿易資料，檢測污染外漏假說（Pollution leakage hypothesis）在鋼鐵業、有色金屬業、石油煉油業等空氣污染嚴重的產業是否成立，隨後再加入貿易整合程度的考量，檢測實證結果的穩健性。
本文實證結果顯示：（1）在未篩選進口國樣本的情況下 ，污染外漏假說在鋼鐵業、有色金屬業、以及石油煉油業皆不成立；但若將進口國限縮在環保嚴格國家時，污染最嚴重的鋼鐵業則是發現環保規範越嚴格的國家，進口越多鋼鐵業產品，支持污染外漏假說。但污染外漏假說在有色金屬業和石油煉油業中則無統計學顯著性的支持；（2）當加入貿易整合程度的考量後，發現貿易整合程度不論在哪個產業對進口值的影響皆有顯著的正向影響，但並不影響前述污染外漏假說在鋼鐵業、有色金屬業和石油煉油業中的實證結果。

This study investigates the impact of environmental stringency on the bilateral trade intensity of pairing countries. The empirical model applied is based on the structural gravity model proposed by Baier and Bergstrand (2007), and the econometric technique of Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) is employed for model estimation. Using the data of bilateral trade flows at sectoral levels from 1980 to 2006, this paper tests the validity of the pollution leakage hypothesis in industries of heavy air pollution, such as the iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum refineries industries. Furthermore, we also consider the depth levels of trade agreements to examine the robustness of the empirical results.
The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Without filtering the sample of importing countries, the pollution leakage hypothesis is not supported in the iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum refineries industries. However, when restricting the importing countries to those with strict environmental regulations, it is observed that in the heavily polluted steel industry, countries with stricter environmental standards import more steel products, thus supporting the pollution leakage hypothesis. Nevertheless, no statistically significant evidence exists for the pollution leakage hypothesis in the non-ferrous metals and petroleum refining industries; (2) After further considering trade integration, we found that trade integration, via different trade agreements, has a statistically significant positive impact on import intensity in all industries. Nevertheless, it does not affect the previous empirical results of the pollution leakage hypothesis.

目錄：
第一章 研究動機與目的	1
第一節 動機與目的	1
第二節 研究架構與流程	2
第二章 文獻回顧	5
第一節 環保協定與貿易相關文獻	5
第二節 區域貿易協定與貿易相關文獻	7
第三章 研究方法	9
第一節 理論基礎－結構引力模型	9
第二節 實證計量模型－卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法	11
第四章 實證資料與變數說明	17
第一節 樣本範圍	17
第二節 變數定義及資料來源	18
第三節 變數之敘述統計量	26
第五章 實證結果與分析	33
第一節 未經篩選樣本之估計結果	33
第二節 限縮樣本進口國為環保嚴格國家之估計結果	38
第六章 結論與建議	57
參考文獻	60

圖表目錄：
圖1-1研究流程圖	4
圖5-1環保嚴格國家與其他國家之平均簽訂環保協定數	39
表4-1環保嚴格之國家	21
表4-2產業汙染排行	22
表4-3 貿易協定種類及整合程度	23
表4-4國際環保協定	25
表4-5鋼鐵業之敘述統計量	27
表4-6鋼鐵業之敘述統計量(進口國為環境嚴格國家)	28
表4-7有色金屬業之敘述統計量	29
表4-8有色金屬業之敘述統計量(進口國為環境嚴格國家)	30
表4-9石油煉油業之敘述統計量	31
表4-10有色金屬業之敘述統計量(進口國為環境嚴格國家)	32
表5-1鋼鐵業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第一組樣本）	45
表5-2鋼鐵業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第二組樣本）	46
表5-3有色金屬業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第一組樣本）	47
表5-4有色金屬業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第二組樣本）	48
表5-5石油煉油業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第一組樣本）	49
表5-6石油煉油業之進口貿易流量估計結果（第二組樣本）	50
表5-7鋼鐵業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第一組樣本)	51
表5-8鋼鐵業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第二組樣本)	52
表5-9有色金屬業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第一組樣本)	53
表5-10有色金屬業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第二組樣本)	54
表5-11石油煉油業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第一組樣本)	55
表5-12石油煉油業:環保相對嚴格國家進口貿易流量之估計結果(第二組樣本)	56

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