本文以新制度主義中歷史制度論作為研究途徑，透過路徑依賴產生歷史遺緒的影響，探討塞爾維亞政治轉型的非正式運作，研究理論的核心為非正式制度、非正式網絡及非正式運作,分析其中恩庇侍從網絡及非正式運作模式。本文研究發現，塞爾維亞原始社會與封建制度的結構缺乏社會領域分離，以大家長制為主,且共產主義時期金字塔型的幹部名單制，將社會從上而下分層串連出裙帶關係，建立了官僚恩庇網絡。歷史及共產制度遺緒影響了塞爾維亞的政治轉型，非正式制度成俘獲國家(state capture)的現象，使制度成為菁英操弄政治的手段之一。此外，政治菁英由敵對分裂演變成分散型狀態，顯示不民主的政治環境，部分新舊菁英保有原先的勢力與財富，或是以職務之便獲得利益，因此武契奇執政時期，在政治上整合公共財政並避免改革，以半專制政權的方式,在薄弱的議會機構中通過政策、安排忠誠的黨員在行政機構,出現強人政治、流氓集團、政府財政不透明等情況，並透過媒體塑造政黨和武契奇的形象，限制媒體自由與抹黑競爭對手。

This thesis takes the historical institutional theory in the new institutionalism as a research approach, and discusses the informal practice of Serbia’s political transition through the influence of path dependence from historical legacies. The patron-client relationships and the political informal practice system are analyzed from informal institution, informal network and informal practice. This study finds that the structure of the primitive society and the feudal system in Serbia lacks the separation of social fields, and is dominated by the patriarchal system. The nomenklatura during the communist period separated the society from top to bottom and built bureaucratic patronage networks. The legacies of history and the communist system have influenced Serbia's political transition. The informal institution can be a phenomenon of "state capture", which has become a way for elites to manipulate politics. In addition, the political elites had evolved from a type of hostile split to a decentralized, showing an undemocratic political environment. The old and new elites retained their original power and wealth or gained benefits through their positions. Therefore, when Vucic came into power, he controlled political public finances and avoided reforms, policies passed in weak parliamentary bodies because of a semi-authoritarian regime and the loyal party members in executive bodies which resulted strongman politics, criminal gangs, undisclosed government finances, while shaping the image of political parties and Vucic through media, restricting media freedom and tarnishing the image of competitors.

第一章 緒論	1
第一節 研究動機與目的	1
一、研究動機	1
二、研究目的	2
第二節 文獻回顧	4
一、巴爾幹半島後共產主義國家的非正式運作	4
二、塞爾維亞政治轉型與阻礙	5
三、塞爾維亞非正式運作	7
四、綜合評述	9
第三節 研究途徑與方法	10
一、研究途徑：新制度主義	10
二、研究理論	14
三、研究方法	22
四、研究範圍與限制	24
第四節 章節安排	25
第二章 制度遺緒：塞爾維亞前共產、共產時期歷史	27
第一節	塞爾維亞前共產主義社會	27
一、原始社會「祖潘」演變為帝國國王	27
二、帝國封建社會中的恩庇侍從主義	31
第二節	南斯拉夫共產主義時期	35
一、共產主義時期社會轉變的歷史	35
二、幹部名單所建立的官僚恩庇網絡	41
第三章 塞爾維亞後共產時期正式制度與非正式制度	45
第一節	後共產時期正式制度轉變	45
一、政治層面	45
二、經濟層面	56
三、社會輿論層面	58
第二節	塞爾維亞的非正式制度與俘獲國家(state capture)	61
一、形成俘獲國家過程	62
二、塞爾維亞的俘獲國家模式及其機制	67
第四章 後共產時期非正式網絡	71
第一節	前南斯拉夫共產遺緒	72
一、社會分層的變化	72
二、塞爾維亞三個階段的菁英型態	75
三、菁英的招聘模式變化	78
第二節	非正式人際網絡	81
一、各項參與者人際網絡圖	81
二、政治菁英與民營企業家的交流機制	85
第五章 武契奇執政時期的非正式運作	95
第一節	政府部門與政治層面	95
一、整合公共財政與避免部門改革	96
二、半專制政權	98
三、薄弱的國家機構	100
四、強人政治	101
五、政黨忠誠度與流氓集團勢力增加	104
第二節	經濟層面	106
第三節	社會與輿論層面	108
一、對科索沃問題的操弄	108
二、控制並打壓媒體	109
第六章 結論	115
參考書目	122

圖目錄
圖一：非正式運作體系圖	16
圖二：原始社會的政治與社會結構	32
圖三：共產主義時期的政治與社會結構	41
圖四：自由之家（freedom house）對塞爾維亞的民主評比	60
圖五：塞爾維亞的俘獲國家模型-影響鏈和利益聯繫	68
圖六：後共產主義時期的非正式人際網絡	83

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