本論文旨在探討環保法規鬆緊程度對雙邊貿易流量與二氧化碳含量的影響。本研究以Baier ＆ Bergstrand（2007）之結構引力模型（Structural gravity model）作為實證模型基礎，並運用卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法（Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood）進行估計。我們分析2000-2014年43個經濟體的資料，檢測環境嚴格程度較高的國家是否會從環境規範較不嚴苛的國家進口更多含碳量高的商品，同時我們也考慮了經濟整合程度的影響。
本研究結果顯示：（1）若以實質進口量與二氧化碳含量之原始值來看，估計結果顯示環境嚴格的國家從環境規範較不嚴苛的國家進口較少的商品且其二氧化碳含量也較少，但若以二氧化碳排放強度（二氧化碳含量除以實質進口量）為應變數則發現，環境嚴格的國家從環境規範較不嚴苛的國家進口更多二氧化碳排放強度高的產品，此現象符合碳洩漏假說。（2）此外，環境規範較嚴謹的國家會向貿易關係越緊密的國家進口更多二氧化碳含量較高的產品。

This study aims to investigate the impact of environmental stringency on bilateral trade flows and carbon dioxide (CO2) content. This study applies the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique to estimate the empirical model derived from the Structural Gravity Model proposed by Baier and Bergstrand (2007). We use a bilateral trade dataset of 43 economies over the 2000-2014 period to examine whether countries with stricter environmental regulations import more carbon-intensive goods from countries with less stringent environmental standards. Additionally, we consider the influence of economic integration between pairing countries. 
The results of this study indicate that: (1) When considering the raw volumes of real import and carbon dioxide content, the estimation results show that countries with stringent environmental regulations import fewer goods from countries with less environmental stringency, and similar results were found for the volumes of CO2 embodied in import. However, when using CO2 intensity (= the volume of CO2 embodied in import/real import) as the dependent variable, it is found that countries with stringent environmental regulations import more products with higher CO2-intensive goods from countries with less environmental stringency. This outcome justifies the hypothesis of carbon leakage; (2) Additionally, countries with stricter environmental regulations tend to import more carbon-intensive products from countries with closer trade relationships.

目錄
第一章 緒論	                    1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的	            1
第二節 研究架構與流程	            4
圖1-1 研究流程圖	                    4
第二章 文獻回顧	                    5
第一節 環境協定對貿易影響相關文獻	    5
第二節 貿易協定對貿易影響之相關文獻	    7
第三章 研究方法                  	   10
第一節 理論基礎－結構引力模型	   10
第二節 實證計量模型	           12
第三節 傳統引力模型	           16
第四章 實證資料與變數說明	           17
第一節 樣本範圍	                   17
第二節 變數定義與數據來源	           18
第三節 變數之敘述統計量	           28
第五章 實證結果與分析	           30
第一節	傳統引力模型之估計結果	   30
第二節 卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法之估計結果   41
第三節 小結	                   51
第六章 結論與建議	                   53
參考文獻	                           55

圖表目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖........................................................... 4
表4-1  WIDO之國家與其對應代碼列表........................................... 22
表4-2 國際環境協定........................................................ 23
表4-3 貿易整合程度以及協定種類.............................................. 25
表4-4 變數定義及資料來源....................................................26
表4-5 變數之敘述統計量......................................................29
表5-1 實值進口流量之傳統引力模型估計結果.......................................35
表5-2 二氧化碳含量之傳統引力模型估計結果.......................................36
表5-3 經經濟規模調整的實值進口流量之傳統引力模型估計結果..........................37
表5-4 經經濟規模調整的二氧化碳含量之傳統引力模型估計結果..........................38
表5-5 二氧化碳排放強度之傳統引力模型估計結果....................................39
表5-6 實值進口流量之PPML型估計結果.......................................... 46
表5-7 二氧化碳含量之PPML型估計結果........................................... 47
表5-8 經經濟規模調整的實值進口流量之PPML型估計結果..............................48
表5-9 經經濟規模調整的二氧化碳含量之PPML型估計結果..............................49
表5-10 二氧化碳排放強度之PPML型估計結果.......................................50

邱芷昀 (2023)，「檢測污染外漏假說: 以鋼鐵業, 有色金屬業, 石油煉油業為例」，淡江大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
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