本研究探討氣候變遷對台灣地區社會經濟發展的影響，聚焦於氣溫與降雨對失業率、淨遷移人口與犯罪行為等變數的衝擊。與過去以跨國為主的研究不同，本研究以台灣為研究目標，分析東、北、中、南四大區域間的異質性。本研究使用2015年1月至2023年12月之全臺各縣市每月層級的縱橫資料進行實證分析。運用固定效果 OLS 模型與固定效果 Poisson 模型，控制縣市與時間的交叉異質性，以估計氣候變數對社會經濟指標的短期與長期影響。實證結果顯示，東部地區氣溫上升對經濟具顯著正向影響，短期內可降低失業率並帶動人口淨遷入，但同時伴隨治安風險上升。北部地區雖然氣溫與降雨對就業影響不顯著，但長期氣溫上升可能造成人口外移，而長期降雨則會吸引人口遷入，並使與治安相關的犯罪案件數增加。中部地區對氣候變數的反應不顯著，可能因產業結構多元，使得氣候衝擊較難呈現一致性效果。南部地區方面，氣溫上升會立即推升暴力犯罪的發生率，且長期氣溫升高亦會導致整體犯罪案件增加；另外，長期降雨則會使失業率上升並促使人口淨遷出。

This study investigates how climate change affects Taiwan’s socioeconomic development, focusing on the impacts of temperature and precipitation on unemployment, net migration, and crime. Unlike prior cross-country studies, this research uses Taiwan as a single case and analyzes regional differences across the east, north, central, and south. Based on monthly county-level panel data from 2015 to 2023, fixed effects OLS and Poisson models are applied to estimate both short- and long-term effects, controlling for regional and temporal heterogeneity.
Findings show that rising temperatures in eastern Taiwan reduce unemployment and attract migration but increase crime in the short term. In the north, long-term rainfall drives in-migration and raises crime, while temperature has limited employment impact. Central Taiwan shows no significant response to climate variation, possibly due to its industrial complexity. In the south, temperature spikes immediately increase violent crime, and prolonged rainfall leads to higher unemployment and population outflows.

目錄
第一章	緒論	1
第一節	研究背景與動機	1
第二節	研究方法	3
第三節	章節安排	3
第二章 文獻回顧	4
第一節	氣候變遷對總體經濟成長與產出的直接影響	4
第二節	氣候壓力下的個體行為影響：以人口遷移為例	7
第三節	氣候變遷與社會穩定性：暴力與犯罪行為的風險升高	8
第四節	總結	10
第三章 研究方法	11
第一節	資料說明	11
第二節	變數設定	12
第三節	模型設定	14
第四章 實證結果	16
第一節	氣候(氣溫與降雨)對失業率的分析	16
第二節	氣溫對失業率的長短期效應分析	19
第三節	氣溫與降雨對失業率的長短期效應分析	22
第四節	氣候(氣溫與降雨)對淨遷入人口的分析	25
第五節	氣溫對淨遷移人口的長短期效應分析	28
第六節	氣溫與降雨對淨遷入人口的長短期效應分析	31
第七節	氣候(氣溫與降雨)對與治安直接相關案件總數的分析	33
第八節	氣溫對與治安直接相關案件數的長短期效應分析	35
第九節	氣溫與降雨對與治安直接相關案件總數的長短期效應分析	38
第十節	氣候(氣溫與降雨)對純暴力案件的分析	40
第五章 結論	43
參考文獻	46
表目錄
表 3-1: 變數定義說明	13
表 3-2: 敘述統計表	13
表 4-1: 無滯後氣候對失業率的迴歸估計結果	18
表 4-2: 地區效果計算方式	18
表 4-3: 無滯後氣候對失業率的地區效果整理	19
表 4-4: 有滯後氣溫對失業率的迴歸估計結果	21
表 4-5: 有滯後氣溫對失業率的地區效果整理	22
表 4-6: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對失業率的迴歸估計結果	24
表 4-7: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對失業率的地區效果整理	25
表 4-8: 無滯後氣候對淨遷入人口的迴歸估計結果	27
表 4-9: 無滯後氣候對淨遷入人口的地區效果整理	28
表 4-10: 有滯後氣溫對淨遷入人口的迴歸估計結果	30
表 4-11: 有滯後氣溫對淨遷入人口的地區效果整理	31
表 4-12: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對淨遷入人口的迴歸估計結果	32
表 4-13: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對淨遷入人口的地區效果整理	33
表 4-14: 無滯後氣候對治安直接相關犯罪數的迴歸估計結果	34
表 4-15: 無滯後氣候對治安直接相關犯罪數的地區效果整理	35
表 4-16: 有滯後氣溫對治安直接相關犯罪數的迴歸估計結果	37
表 4-17: 有滯後氣溫對治安直接相關犯罪數的地區效果整理	38
表 4-18: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對治安直接相關犯罪數的迴歸估計結果	39
表 4-19: 有滯後氣溫、降雨對治安直接相關犯罪數的地區效果整理	40
表 4-20: 無滯後氣候對純暴力犯罪的迴歸估計結果	41
表 4-21: 無滯後氣候對純暴力事件的地區效果整理	42

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