本研究主要探討黃金走勢受美元指數、布蘭特原油與全球景氣成長率的影響，並以全球景氣成長率為門檻變數因子，利用非線性平滑移轉模型，分別評估全球景氣於各區段，是否產生不同之影響變化。
實證結果顯示，全球景氣在不同的時期之下，各金融變數對黃金走勢之影響明顯不同，尤其全球景氣成長率圍繞在3.843472%附近時，金融變數中，布蘭特原油對黃金走勢呈現顯著影響關係；美元指數與全球景氣成長率對黃金走勢的影響呈不顯著。

This study mainly discusses the trend of gold caused by the US Dollar Index(USDX) and Brent Crude under the global economic growth rate. The nonlinear smooth transition model is used to explain whether the impact during different sections of the boom, or generate different changes. 
During different periods of the global economic growth rate, the empirical results indicate that the boom will influent the gold trend. The boom is like a phenomenon. However, Brent Crude impacts the trend of gold in significantly level. When the global growth is around 3.843472%, the USDX and the Global growth rate has no significant level on the trend of gold.

目錄	III
表目錄	IV
圖目錄	V
第一章緒論	1
第一節研究動機及背景	1
第二節研究目的	3
第三節研究流程與架構	4
第二章文獻探討	6
第一節全球景氣對黃金之影響	6
第二節美元指數對黃金之影響	7
第三節石油對黃金之影響	9
第三章研究方法	10
第一節單根檢定法	11
第二節平滑移轉迴歸模型	15
第四章實證結果與分析	21
第一節研究資料	21
第二節敘述統計	22
第三節單根檢定	26
第四節線性檢定	29
第五節轉換函數檢定	30
第六節模型參數估計與分析	31
第五章結論與建議	35
參考文獻	37

表目錄
表4-1-1被解釋變數資料說明	21
表4-1-2解釋變數資料說明	21
表4-2-1各變數敘述統計量	23
表4-2-2各變數相關性檢定	23
表4-3-1 ADF及PP單根檢定	27
表4-3-2 KPSS及KSS單根檢定   28
表4-4-1 LM-TYPE線性檢定	29
表4-5-1轉換函數檢定檢定	30
表4-6-1倫敦黃金價格指數型模型參數估計   32
表4-6-2各解釋變數對倫敦黃金價格之影響關係	34

圖目錄
圖1-3-1 研究流程圖	5
圖3-2-1邏輯型函數圖形	18
圖3-2-2指數型函數圖形	19
圖4-2-1倫敦黃金價格走勢圖	24
圖4-2-2美元指數走勢圖	24
圖4-2-3布蘭特原油走勢圖	25
圖4-2-4全球景氣成長率走勢圖	25
圖4-6-1倫敦黃金價格之轉換函數	34

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