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系統識別號 U0002-3108200908334400
中文論文名稱 調停研究-以肯亞後選舉危機為例(2007-2008)
英文論文名稱 Case study of mediation in Kenya's 2007 post-election crisis
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 97
學期 2
出版年 98
研究生中文姓名 歐納佳
研究生英文姓名 Samuel T. Onadja
學號 696330363
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2009-06-22
論文頁數 91頁
口試委員 指導教授-李大中
委員-王高成
委員-甘逸驊
中文關鍵字 肯亞  調停 
英文關鍵字 Mediation  African conflict resolution  Kenya  Post election crisits 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 這個論斷是為了掌握的關鍵因素調解成功的政治危機爆發後,在肯尼亞2007年12月的總統選舉。調解是由前聯合國秘書長安南和面板的非洲知名人士,誰接手的調解努力的初步嘗試後,使爭執雙方回到談判桌失敗。的調解努力的領導下,科菲安南持續41天,並最終分享權力的協議,建立了總理位置的反對派領導人奧廷加和分裂的內閣職位之間的ODM和PNU。 的關鍵因素成功的調解,包括個人常設首席調解人科菲安南和他管理的方式調解過程中,以及大力支持和壓力產生於美國和歐洲聯盟參與誰在一開始就危機和整個調解過程。權力分享協議敲定安南結束了政治危機,威脅到整個地區不穩定。
英文摘要 This thesis is an attempt to capture the key factors of the mediation success in the political crisis that erupted in Kenya following the December 2007 presidential elections. The mediation was conducted by former United nations Secretary General Kofi Annan and a panel of eminent African personalities, who took over the mediation efforts after initial attempts to bring the feuding parties to the negotiating table failed. The mediation efforts, under the leadership of Kofi Annan lasted 41 days and culminated in a power-sharing deal that created a position of Prime Minister for the opposition leader Raila Odinga and split cabinet positions between ODM and PNU. The key factors of the mediation success include the personal standing of the chief mediator Kofi Annan and the way he managed the mediation process as well as the overwhelming support and pressure that emanated from the United States and the European Union who were involved at the outset of the crisis and throughout the whole mediation process. The power-sharing deal hammered out by Annan brought an end to the political crisis that threatened to destabilize the entire region.
論文目次 Chinese Abstract i
English ii Abstract ii
Acknowledgments iii
List of Abbreviations iv
Table of Contents v
Chapter I- Introduction 1
I-1 Statement and scope of the problem 1
I-2 Research aim and rationale 4
I-3 Literature review 5
I-4 Hypothesis 23
I-5 Research Method 24
I-6 Research delimitations 28
I-7 Research structure 29
Chapter II Kenya: the December post-election crisis 30
II-1 A synoptic presentation of Kenya 30
II-2 Looking at the post-election crisis 33
Chapter III The mediation process 46
III-1 Early mediation attempts 46
III-2 Mediation by Kofi Annan and the panel of eminent African personalities 50
III-3 The mediation outcome 59
III-4 Implementation 60
Chapter IV Assessment 61
IV-1 Mediation success 61
IV-2 Motives of the parties 63
IV-3 The nature of the parties 68
IV-4 The nature of the dispute 70
IV-5 The nature of the mediator 72
IV-6 Mediation strategies 75
IV-7 Supportive International context 77
Chapter V Conclusion 82
Bibliography 87


參考文獻 Books
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Zartman, I. William, ed. Resolving Regional Conflicts: International Perspectives. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, volume 518, November 1991.
Bercovitch, Jacob, ed. Studies in International Mediation: Essays in honor of Jeffrey Z. Rubin. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002.
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Crocker, Chester A., Fen Osler Hampson and Pamela Aall. Timing Intractable Conflicts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases. Washington, D.C.,: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2004.
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Journals and Magazines
Nathan, Laurie “When push comes to shove: the failure of international mediation in African civil wars,” Track Two 8, No. 2, November 1999 CCR, Cap Town, http://ccrweb.ccr.uct.ac.za/archive/two/8_2/vol8no2.html
Regan, Patrick M. “Condition of Successful Third-Party in Intrastate Conflicts.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996): 336-359.
Bercovitch, Jacob “Special Issue on International Mediation” Journal of Peace Research 28 (1991): 3-6.
Wall, A. James, John B. Stark and Rhetta L. Standifer “Mediation: a Current Review and Theory Development” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (2001): 370-391.
Greenhouse, Carol J. “Mediation: A Comparative Approach” Man New Series 20 (1985): 90-114.
Bercovitch, Jacob, J. Theodore Anagnoson and Donnette L. Wille “Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations” Journal of Peace Research 28 (1991): 7-17.
Bercovitch, Jacob “Who Mediates? The Political Economy of International Conflict Management” Journal of Peace Research 37 (2000): 145
Ian S. Spears, “Understanding inclusive peace agreements in Africa: the problems of sharing power” in Third World Quarterly 21, No. 1, 109.
Peter Wayande, “Electoral politics and election outcomes in Kenya”, in Africa Development 3(2006):62
Newspapers
Jeffrey Gettleman, “Opposition leading in Kenya vote”, International Herald Tribune, 28 December 2007
Alex Perry, “Kenya: a fight to death?” January 3, 2008, Time Magazine, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1699794,00.html
African Union plans mediation in Kenya, Reuters, 2 January 2008, http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L02368842.htm
Opposition Seeks New Vote as Violence Ebbs in Kenya, The New York Times, January 5 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/05/world/africa/05nairobi.html?r=1&ref=africa
Kenya: Kufuor's Whistle-Stop Diplomacy Was Only to Pave Way for Annan, Allafrica 14 January 2008, http://allafrica.com/stories/200801141346.html
The prisoner of peace: an interview with Kofi Annan, http://kofiannanfoundation.org/sites/default/files/'%20A%20prisoner%20of%20peace'%20Interview%20with%20Kofi.%20A.%20Annan.pdf.
Roger Cohen, “African genocide averted”, March 13, 2008, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/opinion/03cohen.html?_r=1
Sammy Cheboi, “In spite of initial hiccups, Annan saved the nation”, Daily Nation, December 28, 2008 http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/507818/-/yi1fi4z/-/index.html
Elisabeth Lindenmayer and Josie Lianna Kaye, “A Choice for Peace? The story of 41 days of mediation in Kenya”,
http://kofiannanfoundation.org/sites/default/files/Microsoft%20Word%20%20A%20Choice%20for%20Peace.pdf .
Bernard Namunane “Kenya: Annan pleads for Grand Coalition Government” 13 February, 2008, http://allafrica.com/stories/200802121155.html
Central Intelligence Agency, the World Factbook: Kenya, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html.
Renu Modi and Seema Shekhawat, “The Kenyan crisis: post December 2007 elections ”, Working paper No. 1, University of Mumbai, Centre for African Studies, http://www.mu.ac.in/arts/social_science/african_studies/renumodiwp.pdf.
Council of the European Union, “Declaration by the Presidency on behalf of the European Union concerning the AU mediation efforts in Kenya”
Websites
http://www.africa-union.org/
http://www.crimesofwar.org/
ht tp://www.un.org/
http://www.hdcentre.org/
http://kofiannanfoundation.org/
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