本論文以迅速發展的撒哈拉以南的非洲地區的跨國販賣人口犯罪及
其中的青年族群為研究對象，透過掃瞄檢視近期和逐漸浮現的趨勢
和新的問題，除了探討了它對該地區的影響外，更擴大檢視其全球
之影響。本研究以因果層次分析法探討各種可能未來情節發展，並
發掘出人口販賣的背後驅動力。本研究指出了需要針對跨國販賣人
口等犯罪，需要提供一個新的領導典範，讓社會經濟和政治的因素
闡述，能更加具有前瞻性。希望本研究能激發後續相關研究，並持
續觀察此重要議題。

This thesis puts the transnational crime of human trafficking in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa
and its quickly growing youth bulge. By mapping recent and concurrent trends and emerging issues, it explores the implications that it has not only for the region itself but also for the greater global dynamics of the issue. Through Causal Layered Analysis of various alternative future scenarios as well as the identification of the core narrative surrounding the international discourse, it is possible to understand more deeply the forces that underlie trafficking and what change is possible. With the provision of a reconstructed narrative that avoids the current blind spots, this research points out the need for a new leadership paradigm that allows for a more holistic and future-oriented inquiry about socio-economic and political change and what it entails for a transnational crime such as human trafficking. By doing so, this thesis inspires follow-up research and the continuous monitoring and transdisciplinary research of this region’s demographic emergence and its possible consequences that have been explored in this inquiry.

Index
Chapter 1 - Introduction..................................................................................... 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1
Research Questions and Purpose of Study .......................................................................................... 6
Methodology & Chapters .................................................................................................................... 7
Chapter 2 – Literature Review .......................................................................... 9
Human Trafficking – A Global Perspective ........................................................................................ 9
Human Trafficking – A Sub-Saharan African Perspective ............................................................... 20
Chapter 3 – Mapping ........................................................................................ 36
Applying Futures Studies to Map Human Trade ............................................................................... 36
Horizon Scanning .............................................................................................................................. 37
Chapter 4 – Anticipating, Deepening and Creating Alternatives ................ 61
Implementation of Emerging Issues Analysis .................................................................................... 61
Creating Scenarios and Incasting Causal Layered Analysis ............................................................... 64
Scenario 1 - The Long Road ........................................................................................................... 66
Scenario 2 - Borderless .................................................................................................................. 69
Scenario 3 - Preferred Future (From NGO/Multilateral Organization-perspective) ..................... 73
Chapter 5 – Analysis and Discussion ............................................................... 78
Scenario Narratives ........................................................................................................................... 78
The Core Narrative ............................................................................................................................ 83
The Reconstructed Core Narrative .................................................................................................... 88
Chapter 6 – Conclusion................................................................................... 104
References ........................................................................................................ 106
List of tables and figures
Table 1 – Emerging Issues and Trends according to STEEP ............................................................ 3
Table 2 – Summary of Legal Actions – Global and Regional .......................................................... 34
Table 3 – The Long-Road Scenario ................................................................................................... 69
Table 4 – Borderless Scenario ............................................................................................................ 73
Table 5 – Preferred Future Scenario ................................................................................................. 77
Table 6 – Summary of Stakeholder Position per Scenario .............................................................. 81
Table 7 – CLA of Core Narrative ...................................................................................................... 84
Table 8 – CLA of reconstructed Core Narrative .............................................................................. 88
Figure 1 – Trends in Gender Contingent according to UN Data (UN, 2016) ................................. 12
Figure 2 – Total Fertility according to UN’s World Fertility Data Booklet of 2015 (UN, 2015) .. 40
Figure 3 – Emerging Issues Analysis - Graph ................................................................................... 62

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