由於非再生能源日益枯竭，喚醒了人們對再生能源的重視。太陽能具有取之不盡，用之不竭的特點，因此被視為重要的再生能源之一，並廣泛應用於日常生活。而太陽能電池模組（solar module）的製程中，EVA膜（ethylene vinyl acetate sheet, EVA sheet）的交聯度（cross-linking degree）是影響太陽能電池發電效率與長期壽命的關鍵因素。本文透過化學法，間接量測EVA膜的交聯度，接著建構出一單調B樣條迴歸模型，來描述層壓時間與EVA膜交聯度之間的關係，由模型進而求得EVA膜的最佳層壓時間。最後，考量模型誤判的情形，本研究以模擬的方式，探討二次曲線關係的EVA膜層壓試驗資料，誤用一次線性模型之配適影響。

Due to the depletion of non-renewable energy, people become increasingly concern about renewable energy. Solar energy is inexhaustible, so it is regarded as one of the important renewable resources and is widely used in daily life. In the manufacturing process of solar module, the degree of cross-linking of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) sheet, is a key factor that affects the efficiency and long-term life of solar module. In this study, we used a chemical method to measure the degree of cross-linking of EVA sheets, and then constructed a monotone B-spline regression model to describe the relationship between lamination time and the degree of cross-linking of EVA sheets. For given the specification limits of the degree of cross-linking, we could estimate the optimal lamination time by the B-spline regression model. Finally, we considered the situation of model mis-specification. Then, lamination test data with second-degree curve relationship were simulated, and the effects of model mis-specification were addressed.

1 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 文獻探討 6
1.2.1 交聯度的量測 6
1.2.2 B樣條 7
1.2.3 最小極值分配 11
1.3 研究動機 13
1.4 研究架構 17
2 最佳層壓試驗 18
2.1 B樣條迴歸模型 18
2.2 最佳層壓時間 21
3 層壓試驗分析 24
3.1 實例資料分析 24
3.2 誤判分析 26
4 結論與後續研究 29
參考文獻 31

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