淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
進階搜尋


下載電子全文限經由淡江IP使用) 
系統識別號 U0002-3006201214300500
中文論文名稱 論市場計分法在預測市場的準確性:以臺灣總統大選為例
英文論文名稱 Accuracy of Prediction Market with Market Scoring Rule:A Case Study of Taiwan Presidential Election
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 產業經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial Economics
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 吳慧品
研究生英文姓名 Hui-Pin Wu
學號 699540349
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-06-11
論文頁數 56頁
口試委員 指導教授-池秉聰
委員-戴中擎
委員-李沃牆
中文關鍵字 預測市場  雙方喊價市場  市場計分法  總統大選  群聚效果  反執政黨效果 
英文關鍵字 Prediction Market  Double Auction  Market Scoring Rule  Presidential Election  Cluster Effect  Anti-Ruling Party Effect 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要   過去預測市場的交易機制大多都是利用雙方喊價市場進行交易,本文採用 Hanson (2003) 提出的預測方法—市場計分法來進行預測,實驗背景為2012年與2008年的臺灣總統大選,並參考真實世界的預測市場—臺灣的「未來事件交易所」中,各縣市對於總統候選人得票率預測合約的資訊,再加入族群的群聚效果以及反執政黨效果作為參數,最後設計實驗在不同的群聚效果之下,比較模擬市場計分法的預測結果,與預測市場中利用雙方喊價市場機制的預測結果之差異。
  研究結果發現,在全體民眾共識一致的社會狀態之下,市場計分法再加入高的群聚效果,會最接近雙方喊價市場機制的預測結果。反之在全體民眾共識較不一致的狀態下,市場計分法加入低的群聚效果,即能使預測結果接近雙方喊價市場機制的預測結果。在2012年與2008年實驗之下,研究還發現高群聚效果主要分布在偏藍的縣市,低群聚效果主要分布在偏綠的縣市,此與當時的社會背景以及不同政黨的選民結構有關。
英文摘要   Instead of using double auction market mechanism, we apply market scoring rule (MSR) to overcome potential liquidity problem (Hanson, 2003). Year 2008 and 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election results have been adopted in agent-based model (ABM). We use ABM to explore the possible belief distributions behind the prediction market in Taiwan, known as xFuture. We assume that the initial belief distribution come from the results of actual vote shares. Then this initial belief distribution will evolve through social networking, controlled by degree of segregation and information radius. In addition, we also add anti-ruling party effect to approximate excess demand of opposition party as evidenced in the trading volume of prediction market. Our goal is to find the best fit setting for the prediction market. We find that under high social consensus, MSR with a higher degree of segregation setting tends to fit xFuture better. In addition, we find that higher degree of segregation settings fit most KMT ruling cities, while lower degree settings tend to fit DPP ruling cities. The results may reflect different society opinion between these two periods.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 3
1.3 本文架構 4

第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 預測市場 5
2.2 預測市場交易機制 9
2.3 代理人基模型 13
2.4 種族分離模型 14

第三章 模型介紹 16
3.1 NetLogo 16
3.2 代理人、空間、觀察者 17
3.3 群聚效果 19
3.4 代理人的政治信念 21
3.5 反執政黨效果 22

第四章 實驗設計與流程 25
4.1 未來事件交易所合約介紹 25
4.2 交易流程 30
4.3 交易流程圖 31

第五章 實驗結果與分析 32
5.1 2008年選舉背景 32
5.2 2008年模擬結果 33
5.3 2012年選舉背景 37
5.4 2012年模擬結果 37
5.5 檢定實驗結果 42
5.6 研究結果分析 44

第六章 結論與未來展望 49
6.1 結論 49
6.2 未來研究與發展 51

參考文獻
參考文獻 中文:
1. James Suroweiecki著,楊玉齡譯,(2005),群眾的智慧,遠流。
2. Mark Buchanan著,葉偉文譯,(2007),隱藏的邏輯,天下遠見文化。
3. 王柏燿,(2002),“台灣選民經濟投票之研究:1996-2001年”,國立政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。
4. 李秉穎,(2011),“期望與失望”,景福醫訊,28,6,頁24-7。
5. 吳東霖,(2011),“代理人基政治預測市場:群聚效果與資訊擴散”,私立淡江大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
6. 吳重禮、崔曉倩,(2010),“族群、賦權與選舉評價—2004年與2008年總統選舉省籍差異的實證分析”,臺灣民主季刊,第七卷,第四期,頁137-82。
7. 陳東升,(2002),“跨族群政治討論網絡的形成及其影響因素”,台灣社會學,第四期,頁 119-157。
8. 連偉廷,(2007),“社會網絡、媒介使用與政治功效意識之分析”,國立政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。
9. 童振源、林馨怡、林繼文、黃光雄、周子全、劉嘉凱、趙文志,(2009),“台灣選舉預測:預測市場的運用與實證分析”,選舉研究,第十六卷第二期,pp.131-166。
10. 郭峻宇,(2010),“不同的交易機制對於預測市場運作表現之影響分析:以2009年縣市長選舉為例”,國立政治大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
英文:
1. Arrow, K., Forsythe, R., Gorham, M., Hahn, R., Hanson, R., Ledyard, J., Levmore, S., Litan, R., Milgrom, P., Nelson, F., Neumann, G., Ottaviani, M., Schelling, T., Shiller, R., Smith, V., Snowberg, E., Sunstein, C., Tetlock, P., Tetlock, P., Varian, H., Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2008), ”The Promise of Prediction Markets,” Policy Forum, Vol. 320, No. 5878, pp. 877-878.
2. Axelrod, R., (2003), “Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences,” Complexity, Vol. 3, Iss. 2, pp.16-22.
3. Berg, J. and Rietz, T., (2003), “Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems,” Information Systems Frontiers, Vol. 5, Iss. 1, pp. 79 –93.
4. Bonabeau, E., (2002), “Predicting the Unpredictable,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 80, pp.109-116.
5. Becker, G., (1962), “Irrational Behavior and Economic Theory,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 1-13.
6. Chen, S-H and Tai, C-C., (2003), “Trading restrictions, price dynamics and allocative efficiency in double auction markets: Analysis based on agent-based modeling and simulations,” Advances in Complex Systems, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 283-302.
7. Eisenberg, E. and Gale, D., (1959), “Consensus of Subjective Probabilities: The Pari-Mutuel Method,” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 165-168.
8. Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., Neumann, G. and Wright, J.,(1992), “Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 5, pp. 1142-1161.
9. Forsythe, R., Rietz, T., and Ross, T., (1998), “Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 39, pp.83–110.
10. Fama, E., (1970), “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 383-417.
11. Gilbert, N and Terna, P., (2000), “How to build and use agent-based models in social science?” Mind & Society, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 57-72.
12. Gjerstad, S and Dickhaut, J., (1998), “Price Formation in Double Auctions,” Games and economic behavior, Vol. 22, Iss. 1, pp.1-29.
13. Gode, D and Sunder, S., (1993), “Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, No. 1, pp. 119-137.
14. Hayek, F., (1945), “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 519-530.
15. Hanson, R., (2003), “Combinatorial Information Market Design,” Information Systems Frontiers, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 107–119.
16. Hanson, R., (2007), “Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation,” The Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol.1, No 1, pp. 3-15.
17. Iozzi, F., (2008), “A simple implementation of Schelling's segregation model in NetLogo,” Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics.
18. Manski, C., (2006), “Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets”, Economic Letters, 91(3), 425-429.
19. Muth, J., (1961), “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica, Vol. 29, No. 3 , pp. 315-335.
20. Othman, A., (2008), “Zero-Intelligence Agents in Prediction Markets,” International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems (AAMAS), Vol.2, pp.879-886.
21. Ostrom, T., (1988), “Computer simulation: The third symbol system,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 24, Iss. 5, pp. 381–392.
22. Oliver, R., (1980), “A Cognitive Model of the Antecedents and Consequences of Satisfaction Decisions,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 460-469.
23. Pennock, D., (2006), “Implementing Hanson's market-maker, ” from http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/30/implementing-hansons-market-maker.
24. Smith, A., (1776), “The wealth of nations,” Scotland.
25. Smith, V., (1962), “An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 70, pp. 111.
26. Smith, V., (1982), “Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the Hayek Hypothesis,” Economic Inquiry, Vol. 20, Iss. 2, pp. 165-79.
27. Stix, G., (2008), “When Markets Beat the Polls?” Scientific American Magazine, No. 298, pp.38-45.
28. Schelling, T., (1969), “Models of Segregation,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 2, pp.488-493.
29. Schelling, T., (1971), “Dynamic Models of Segregation,” Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Vol. 1, Iss. 2, pp.143-186.
30. Schelling, T., (1978), “Micromotives and macrobehavior,” Norton New York.
31. Twomey, P. and Cadman, R., (2002) “Agent-based modelling of customer behaviour in the telecoms and media markets,” info, Vol. 4 , Iss. 1, pp.56-63.
32. Wilensky, U., (1999), NetLogo:Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, from http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo.
33. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2004), “Prediction Markets”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 107–126.
34. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2006a), “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper 10359.
35. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2006b), “Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets,” NBER Working Paper 12060.
論文使用權限
  • 同意紙本無償授權給館內讀者為學術之目的重製使用,於2012-07-04公開。
  • 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2012-07-04起公開。


  • 若您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡!
    圖書館: 請來電 (02)2621-5656 轉 2281 或 來信