本研究係以國際油價、庫存、GDP、CPI、新台幣匯率等產業面因素及總體經濟的變動資料進行研究，並以油價為門檻，探討對近年來台灣上市塑膠公司之獲利狀況，何者有重大影響，是否呈現不同的互動關係或產生結構性的轉變？以及存在著非線性之關係。
透過Granger and Teräsvirta（1993）and Teräsvirta（1994）提出的平滑移轉迴歸模型(Smooth Transition AutoRegression, STAR)，發現當油價達到某一個水準(即門檻值，接近88.84美元)附近時，油價、GDP及匯率對塑膠公司獲利，均呈現正相關的影響，但庫存及CPI，則與塑膠公司獲利呈現負相關的狀況。而當油價遠大於門檻值或遠小於門檻值時，庫存、GDP及CPI對塑膠公司獲利，呈現正相關的影響，而油價及匯率則與塑膠公司獲利反而呈現負相關的狀況。

This research investigates the profitability of the listed plastic companies in Taiwan affected by both the industrial factors and macro-fundamentals, includes oil price, inventory, GDP, CPI and exchange rate. The model of non-linear relationships with considering of structural change is applied by utilizing the oil price as the threshold variable.
The result of smooth transition auto regression (STAR) elaborated by Granger and Teräsvirta (1993) and Teräsvirta (1994) shows that the ESTAR model is fitted to our estimation and the threshold value of the oil price is found to be $88.84 US dollar. Around the threshold value, there exists positive impact of oil prices, GDP and exchange rate on the profit of plastic companies. However, inventory and CPI are shown to have negative impacts on the profit of plastic companies. On the other hand, when the oil price is far apart from the threshold value, inventory, GDP and CPI positively and oil price and exchange rate negatively affect the profit of plastic companies, respectively.

目 錄
	頁次
中文摘要		i
英文摘要		ii
目錄		iv
表目錄		vi
圖目錄		vii
	
第一章、緒論		1
第一節  研究背景與動機		1
第二節  研究目的.		5
第三節  研究架構與流程		6
	
第二章、產業概況與相關文獻探討		8
第一節  台灣石化產業概況…		8
第二節  相關理論及文獻探討.		12
第三章、研究方法 		23
第一節  單根檢定法…		23
第二節  平滑移轉迴歸模型		26
	
第四章、研究結果 		33
第一節  資料來源與敘述性統計…		33
第二節  單根檢定結果…		40
第三節  線性檢定…		41
第四節  轉換函數之檢定…		42
第五節  模型之參數估計與檢定…		43
	
第五章、結論與建議 		47
第一節  研究結論		47
第二節  建議.		48
	
參考文獻		51
     中文部份		51
     英文部份		53

表目錄
	頁次
表4-1 樣本資料來源表		33
表4-2 樣本塑膠公司表		34
表4-3 樣本資料敘述統計表		40
表4-4 油價、庫存、GDP、CPI、匯率及塑膠公司獲利之單根檢定表		41
表4-5 LM-Type F統計量及p-Value之線性檢定		42
表4-6 轉換函數之檢定表		43
表4-7 油價為轉換變數之ESTAR模型參數估計		46
表4-8 油價為轉換變數時之各解釋變數對塑膠公司獲利之影響		46

圖目錄
	頁次
圖1-1 研究流程圖		7
圖2-1 產業關聯圖		11
圖3-1 邏輯型函數圖形		30
圖3-2 指數型函數圖形		31
圖4-1 塑膠公司獲利變化圖		34
圖4-2 西德州原油現貨價格走勢圖		35
圖4-3 塑膠公司庫存變化圖		35
圖4-4 台灣GDP變化圖		36
圖4-5 台灣CPI變化圖		36
圖4-6 新台幣匯率走勢圖		37

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