「1992年美國－香港政策法」為美國介入香港事務提供了法律依據，也為美國保持了影響中國大陸的一扇窗口，其重要性不言可喻。筆者以決策理論為主，輔以國際體系理論，分析布希政府之香港政策如何形成，行政、立法、智庫、利益團體乃至台、港因素所扮演之角色，以及「1992年美國－香港政策法」之內容和影響。從而得出：「美國－香港政策法」是美國為推廣其價值觀念、維護其國際領導地位及擴大其經濟利益等因素共同作用的結果。此外，美國的香港政策是其中國戰略的ㄧ環，將對美中（共）關係的發展產生一定的影響。
    本論文運用艾里森（Graham T. Allison）三種決策模式來分析，發現美國的香港政策決策是一個複雜的過程。「理性行為者模式」對布希政府的香港政策起到一定的解釋作用，但不全面，因為布希政府雖然也是基於各種利益審酌立法的必要性和法案內容，但是行政部門是回應者而非倡議者，換句話說，布希政府是在國會的壓力下參與立法決策。如果將國會、行政部門、國內外智庫、利益團體都視為組織，則「組織行為模式」最能解釋「1992年美國－香港政策法」之決策。惟因艾里森的「組織行為模式」著重在說明行政部門內不同機構因受制於標準工作程序而導致之決策差異，故筆者認為帕斯特（Robert A. Pastor）強調行政與立法部門互動關係的「跨部門政治研究法」以及希爾斯曼（Roger Hilsman）主張的由政治系統內有權力的行為者互動造成的「政治過程模式」更能完善詮釋。至於以官僚政治為主體的「政府政治模式」，則因布希總統的謹慎個性、共識要求以及對中國政策的關注和投入，使得官僚拔河現象在布希的中國政策決策上極為罕見，因此「政府政治模式」模式無法解釋布希的香港政策決策，是以筆者改採「總統管理模式」及「小團體思維」理論來闡釋。因此「1992年美國－香港政策法」是理性、跨部門/政治過程、總統管理/小團體思維三種模式在決策過程中綜合起作用的結果，當然不同的模式起的作用不同，對決策的影響力也有差異。大體為：理性行為者模式可以解釋美國的香港政策。政治過程模式最能彰顯法案決策特色。總統管理模式較能解釋布希團隊決策。
    本論文提出四項假設：「一個政策選項獲得青睞，通常是因為該選項最符合國家的利益。」「一個組織愈是主動積極且能力愈突出，愈有可能影響政府的政策選擇。」「行政部門與國會歧見愈小的選項，被採納為政策的可能性愈高。」「對於領導人有興趣與積極投入的外交決策，官員常傾向於配合其想法。」，並分別以國會通過該法案、總統簽署不否決、該法案中之「一國兩制」條款、民主人權條款、情勢變遷條款以及報告條款共六個項目來檢驗。結果發現絕大多數皆能驗證，僅少數項目結果不明顯，有待未來陸續獲得解密資料後，進一步之研究與修正。

The purpose of this dissertation is trying to understand George H.W. Bush Administration’s policy toward Hong Kong, the formulation of the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, and the roles and influence of the Executive branch, Congress, think tank, interest groups and even foreign countries.
    The passage of the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 （hereinafter referred as “the Act”）enhanced the world’s （certainly including Hong Kong residents）confidence on Hong Kong’s future and accordingly helped to stabilize the political, social, and economic situation in Hong Kong during more-than-a-decade-long transition period before the 1997 handover.  However, the making of the Act, so far, has not been very much deliberated academically.  
    This paper attempts to make some contributions on this subject by probing into the evolution of the Act through investigating the following determining factors: the U.S. predominance in the post-Cold War international community, the development of U.S. domestic politics, and the individual characteristics of decision makers.  For these factors, Graham T. Allison’s three decision-making models（i.e. Rational Actor model, Organizational Behavior Model and Governmental Politics Model）, were first explored. Yet it is found that together with Rational Actor model, intra-branch approach/political process model, and presidential management model/ groupthink theory, better facilitate the analysis of the making of the Act. The Act was actually the product of the interaction of the above-mentioned three models. Each could explain the formation of the Act. However their functions are not equal. 
    Rational Actor model is workable to find out the reason why the United States needs this policy. The Bush Administration had some, though not many, alternatives to deal with Hong Kong issue.  It could do nothing.  The U.S.-Hong Kong status quo relationship would thus have totally changed after 1997.  The U.S. government should treat Hong Kong the same as China since it then became one of the Chinese territory.  Should the U.S. continue to develop its multifaceted relationship with Hong Kong?  Should the U.S. support Hong Kong’s participation in international organizations?  Should the U.S. help to safeguard Hong Kong people’s human rights?  Would all of the above be interpreted as interference in China’s exercise of sovereignty?  How should the U.S. do if its sanctions on China would bring a negative effect upon Hong Kong? Having finished this complicated cost-benefit analysis, and based on its policy goal toward Hong Kong (to safeguard human rights and prosperity of Hong Kong, and among others, to help promoting Chinese democratization), the Bush Administration endorsed the Act submitted by Congress. With some amendments, the Act met the Administration’s policy goal and the U.S. interests both in China and Hong Kong.
    Intra-branch approach/political process model serves best to highlight legislative decision. The Act was initiated by Congress, yet sponsored by certain other power centers.  There have been tensions between President Bush and Congress owing to different views concerning Chinese issues, such as MFN treatment, student immigration and response to Tiananmen incident.  However, the Administration agreed with the spirit of the Act. The State Department officials, think tank scholars, and interest group professionals, both domestic and foreign, attended hearings many times, consulting and discussing with senators, representatives and Congress staffs article by article, making some amendments.  The lengthy legislative process of the Act demonstrated that the decision-making power of the Administration‘s policy toward Hong Kong was shared by President Bush, Congress and interested parties.
    Presidential management model/ groupthink theory, compared with other theories, can explain the feature of President Bush’s national security teamwork. Having been American ambassador in Beijing, President Bush has a lot of experience dealing with Chinese. He dominated all China policy decisions during his term. NSC staffs and other bureaucrats tend to be silent and follow him in China affairs (including Hong Kong issue). 
    To sum up, the main theme of this paper is: The Act is made for promoting American value, sustaining the U.S. world leadership, and enlarging its strategic, economic and political interest in Hong Kong. Also the United States’ Hong Kong policy is one part of its China policy. It will eventually influence Sino-American relations.

第一章 緒論..............................................1
    第一節 研究目的與主旨................................1
    第二節 研究途徑與方法................................3
        壹、個案分析法...................................4
        貳、比較分析法...................................6
    第三節 文獻回顧......................................8
        壹、美國學者的研究...............................9
        貳、香港學者的研究..............................17
        叁、中國大陸學者的研究..........................19
        肆、台灣學者的研究..............................27
        伍、綜合評析....................................29
    第四節 研究範圍、架構、預期貢獻與限制...............30
        壹、研究範圍....................................30
        貳、論文架構....................................31
        叁、預期貢獻....................................32
        肆、研究限制....................................34
    第五節 小結.........................................35
第二章 決策理論與假設...................................37
    第一節 美國外交決策之複雜性.........................37
        壹、外部因素：國際體系的變化....................40
        貳、政府、社會和決策者因素......................43
    第二節 決策理論.....................................46
        壹、理性行為者模式..............................47
        貳、組織行為模式................................50
        叁、政府政治模式................................58
        肆、綜合評析....................................66
    第三節 本論文之假設.................................67
    第四節 小結.........................................70

第三章 理性行為者模式...................................73
    第一節 布希總統的全球及亞太戰略.....................73
        壹、「超越圍堵」與「世界新秩序」................74
        貳、亞太扇型策略................................78
        叁、戰略意義....................................80
    第二節 美國的中（共）、港政策.......................85
        壹、東歐改革與天安門事件之影響..................86
        貳、布希政府的中國大陸政策......................89
        叁、「九七大限」之陰影.........................105
        肆、香港政策的內容與目標.......................108
    第三節 可能選項與利弊評估..........................129
        壹、什麼都不做.................................129
        貳、全盤接受國會所提法案.......................133
        叁、與國會溝通修正法案.........................135
    第四節 最佳方案....................................140
    第五節 小結........................................145
第四章 組織行為模式與政治過程模式......................147
    第一節 國會主導....................................147
        壹、國會關注香港之原因.........................150
        貳、國會提出香港議案的各種思路.................155
        叁、推動「美國－香港政策法」...................167
    第二節 府會一致....................................179
        壹、決定府會關係之因素.........................180
        貳、府會和諧溝通香港政策.......................190
    第三節 智庫與利益團體..............................204
        壹、智庫研析美國應有的香港政策.................205
        貳、利益團體皆支持維護香港現狀.................208
    第四節 國外因素....................................214
        壹、英國因素...................................215
        貳、中共因素...................................236
        叁、香港因素...................................251
        肆、台灣因素...................................265
    第五節 小結........................................281
第五章 政府政治模式與總統管理模式......................283
    第一節 布希總統的決策管理..........................284
    壹、布希政府的決策結構.............................285
    貳、布希個人的決策風格.............................289
    第二節 同心協力的核心幕僚..........................297
    壹、在朋友中制定政策...............................297
    貳、同僚式的管理...................................306
    第三節 布希總統的中國情結..........................311
    壹、布希以中國經驗自豪.............................311
    貳、布希對香港的認知...............................319
    第四節 小團體思維..................................324
    第五節 小結........................................332
第六章 結論............................................335
第一節 決策模式功效評估................................335
    壹、理性行為者模式可以解釋美國的香港政策...........336
    貳、政治過程模式最能彰顯法案決策特色...............337
    叁、總統管理模式較能解釋布希團隊決策...............338
第二節 假設檢驗結果....................................339
第三節 本研究之意義....................................342
    壹、學術意義.......................................342
    貳、政策意義.......................................343
參考文獻...............................................345
附錄
  一、中（共）英「關於香港問題的聯合聲明」.............377
  二、United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992.......387
  三、美國國會有關香港之決議案/法案（1984-1992）.......395
  四、美國、香港相關大事紀要（1984-1992）..............399
圖目錄
圖2-1：同心圓模型......................................38
圖2-2：因果漏斗模型....................................39
圖2-3：國家行為與國際體系互動關係......................41
圖2-4：同心圓模型 vs.移動星座模型......................56
圖4-1：策略性政策的決策系統...........................150
圖4-2：美國民眾對布希總統之支持度.....................186
圖4-3：美國民眾對布希總統外交政策之支持度.............187
圖4-4：美國民眾對布希總統經濟政策之支持度.............187
圖5-1：布希政府三個同時並行的國安決策結構.............288
圖5-2：小團體思維的理論分析...........................334

表目錄
表2-1：立法－行政過程模式..............................55
表2-2：小團體思維和非失敗決策結果......................65
表2-3：假設驗證一覽表..................................71
表3-1：美國的全球競爭力................................84
表4-1：香港人的自我身分認同（1988-1992）..............256
表4-2：香港居民對中國大陸政府的信任度（1988-1992）....257
表5-1：總統管理方式與國家安全顧問角色.................307
表6-1：假設檢驗結果一覽表.............................344

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