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系統識別號 U0002-2906202020083200
中文論文名稱 盈餘宣告是否對台股有異常報酬
英文論文名稱 The analysis of abnormal returns from the impact of earnings announcement to Taiwanese stocks
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生中文姓名 林育瑩
研究生英文姓名 Yu-Ying Lin
電子信箱 et11640@gmail.com
學號 707530118
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2020-06-28
論文頁數 39頁
口試委員 指導教授-林蒼祥
指導教授-蔡蒔銓
委員-吳中書
委員-孫效孔
委員-林蒼祥
中文關鍵字 盈餘宣告  異常報酬 
英文關鍵字 earnings announcements  abnormal remuneration 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究以台灣市場為研究對象,透過事件研究法來透析 2010 年到 2015 年市場上例行性的盈餘宣告是否會引起股價的異常報酬(abnormal returns)。 探討異常交易量(AV)、委託單不平衡(OIB)對異常報酬間的影響關係。
本研究參考 Chen, Huang, Wang and Wu (2014)以事件宣告日為事件期的概念來做研究,但若事件宣告日當天之個股收盤價以漲跌停坐收,則改以打該漲跌停之該段期間為事件期。 並將投資人細分三大類,分別為外資、散戶、 本地法人三類別,端看盈餘宣告事件下投資人的不同反應。而實證結果指出, 首先在全市場及全市場下之各類投資人在盈餘宣告期間之異常交易量皆與異常報酬呈現顯著關係,表示在盈餘宣告下會帶動市場上的交易量。而將全市場進一步細分不同投資人後,外資在異常交易量及委託單不平衡部分均無顯著相關,足見外資訊息領先於盈餘宣告前,故單獨就外資部份分析實際盈餘宣告發生時影響面不大。
本土法人、散戶的異常交易量均呈現顯著正相關且市值變數為顯著負相關,判斷原因為交易量提昇,連帶造成市值較小的公司有較大波動。 而在委託單不平衡部分,散戶在全市場及細分類別比較後結果均呈現顯著負相關,代表散戶較其他二類投資人資訊相對落後,外資及本土法人對於事件較有預測能力會事先佈局故影響不大,而散戶在異常交易量及委託單不平衡皆為顯著結果可驗證散戶為雜訊交易者,較容易受到訊息影響。
英文摘要 This study uses the Taiwan market as the research object, and uses the event research method to analyze whether the routine earnings announcements
in the market from 2010 to 2015 will cause abnormal returns in stock prices.
Explore the relationship between abnormal transaction volume (AV) and order
imbalance (OIB) on abnormal returns.
This research refers to Chen et al. (2014) to do research on the concept of the event declaration date as the event period, but if the closing price of individual stocks on the day of the event declaration is closed at the price limit, it should be changed to hit the increase. The period during which the limit falls is the event period. The investors are subdivided into three categories, namely foreign capital, retail investors and local legal persons, depending on the different reactions of investors under the surplus announcement event.
The empirical results indicate that, first of all, the abnormal trading volume of all types of investors in the entire market and the entire market during the earnings declaration period has a significant relationship with the abnormal
returns, indicating that the trading volume in the market will be driven by the earnings announcement. After further subdividing the whole market into different investors, foreign capital has no significant correlation in the abnormal transaction volume and the unbalanced part of the order.
This shows that the foreign investment information is ahead of the surplus announcement. Not big.
The abnormal transaction volume of the local legal persons and retail investors all showed a significant positive correlation and the market value variable was a significant negative correlation.
The reason for the judgment was that the transaction volume increased, and the companies with smaller market values also caused greater fluctuations. In the unbalanced part of the order, the
results of retail investors after the comparison of the entire market and the subdivision categories all show a significant negative correlation, indicating that retail investors are relatively backward in information compared to other secondclass investors, and foreign capital and local legal persons have a more predictive ability for events and will be arranged in advance. Therefore, the impact is not
large, and the abnormal transaction volume and order imbalance of retail investors are both significant results, which can verify that retail investors are noisy traders and are more susceptible to information.
論文目次 目錄

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構 5
第四節 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
第三章 研究方法 12
第一節 研究資料與樣本篩選 12
第二節 變數說明 14
第三節 模型設定 23
第四章 實證結果 29
第一節 敘述統計分析 29
第二節 Hausman Test 檢定結果 32
第三節 事件期之迴歸分析 33
第五章 結論 37
參考文獻 38

表目錄

【表 1-1】集中市場交易金額投資人類別比例表 2
【表 4-1】全市場下樣本敘述統計表 30
【表 4-2】不同投資人之變數敍述統計 30
【表 4-3】Hausman Test檢定 32
【表 4-4】全市場下變數之迴歸分析表 34
【表 4-5】未預期盈餘變數之迴歸分析表 34
【表 4-6】不同投資人變數之迴歸分析表 36

圖目錄

【圖 1-1】研究流程圖 6
【圖 3-1】事件研究法說明用圖 15
【圖 3-2】本研究事件研究法示意圖 16

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管理研究所博士論文,民國八十五年七月。
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