||Sino-American Cyber Security Relationship Dynamics During Obama Administration
||Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
||Jenny Lai Yu
Cyber Warfare Strategy
|| 本研究探討歐巴馬政府時期美中兩國出現網路戰的可能，本論文的首要研究問題為美中間高頻率的網路衝突，是否可能增加網路戰的機率？為回答此問題，本論文採用溫特(Alexander Wendt)在「國際政治的社會理論」 (Social Theory of International Politics)一書中的認同、自利、意圖等概念，本書第二章與第三章依據上述概念，分析美中雙方的戰略思考與網路衝突行為，根據兩份國際網路實力的評估指標，本論文指出頻繁的網路攻擊次數，並不代表真實的網路能力，研究證據顯示，面對網路衝突，美中雙方呈現非傳統的合作模式，本論文獲致的重要結論，大國間網路安全關係的本質，在於互賴及自我克制，而非以攻擊等挑釁作為摧毀對手。
|| China challenges U.S. dominance in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) raised fear that a high severity, total cyber warfare between major powers is imminent. This concern propels this research to explore the likelihood of U.S.-China total cyber warfare during Obama Administration. In Chapters 2 and 3, thesis applied theoretical approach of Social Theory of International Politics by Alexander Wendt. The concepts of identity, self-interest and intention are salient in analysis of U.S. and China strategic thinking and state cyber conflict behavior. Data from two global cyber power indexes provided credible evidence to confirm the frequency of cyber attacks does not represent true cyber capabilities. Empirical evidence from ten year study showed unconventional cooperative U.S.-China pattern of cyber conflict response marked by tolerance and restraint.
Another research motivation is to explore the possibility of U.S.-China cyber collaboration given the traditional rivalry. The fundamental ideological difference of Xi proposed “Internet Sovereignty”, a state-centric, top-down control model is in contrast with American policy of “an open, free and interoperable global Internet” reinforced by a bottom-up, collaborative multi-stakeholder model. As China continues to compete with U.S. in future development of future “hacker-free” Quantum Global Network, history showed power transitions are fraught with conflict and war. Based on empirical evidence and application of Wendt’s Master variables of interdependency, common fate, and self-restraint in Chapter 4, thesis argues U.S.-China cyber collaboration is necessary and possible to avoid the Thucydides Trap.
As Obama Presidency ends, uncertainty and fear arises from the ambiguity of Trump Administration foreign policy in Asia. The goal of the proposed recommendations in Chapter 5 is to direct foreign policy makers down a peaceful path in managing the precarious Sino-American cyber security relationship.
||Chapter 1 1
1.1 Importance of Topic 1
1.2 Theoretical Framework 3
1.3 Literature Review 6
1.4 Thesis Chapter Outline 8
CHAPTER 2 10
CHINA PERSPECTIVE ON CYBER SECURITY 10
2.1 Synopsis 10
2.2 China Cyber Security Policy 10
2.3 China Cyber Security Strategies 17
2.4 China Cyber Strategic Outcome Assessment 24
CHAPTER 3 32
UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE ON CYBER SECURITY 32
3.1 Synopsis 32
3.2 United States Cyber Security Policy 32
3.3 United States Cyber Security Strategy 39
3.4 United States Cyber Strategic Outcome Assessment 47
3.5 Summary 53
CHAPTER 4 55
ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POWER DYNAMICS 55
IN CYBER SECURITY RELATIONSHIP 55
4.1 Synopsis 55
4.2 Analysis Of Cyber Conflict Relationship 55
4.3 Discussion on Sino-American Cyber Relationship 58
4.4 Possibility of Cyber Collaboration 70
4.5 Future Direction of Cyber Security Relationship Quantum Technology Race 78
CHAPTER 5 82
5.1 Research Findings 82
5.2 Recommendations 87
APPENDIX 1 92
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