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系統識別號 U0002-2906201714515800
中文論文名稱 歐巴馬時期之美中網路安全關係
英文論文名稱 Sino-American Cyber Security Relationship Dynamics During Obama Administration
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生中文姓名 梁欐
研究生英文姓名 Jenny Lai Yu
學號 602330341
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2017-06-13
論文頁數 103頁
口試委員 指導教授-李大中
委員-王高成
委員-林穎佑
中文關鍵字 美中關係  網路安全  戰略  國際關係  國際政治 
英文關鍵字 U.S.-China Relations  Cyber Security  International Relations  International Politics  Cyber Warfare Strategy 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要   本研究探討歐巴馬政府時期美中兩國出現網路戰的可能,本論文的首要研究問題為美中間高頻率的網路衝突,是否可能增加網路戰的機率?為回答此問題,本論文採用溫特(Alexander Wendt)在「國際政治的社會理論」 (Social Theory of International Politics)一書中的認同、自利、意圖等概念,本書第二章與第三章依據上述概念,分析美中雙方的戰略思考與網路衝突行為,根據兩份國際網路實力的評估指標,本論文指出頻繁的網路攻擊次數,並不代表真實的網路能力,研究證據顯示,面對網路衝突,美中雙方呈現非傳統的合作模式,本論文獲致的重要結論,大國間網路安全關係的本質,在於互賴及自我克制,而非以攻擊等挑釁作為摧毀對手。
  本論文的第二項研究問題在於,美中在網路安全問題上雖有摩擦,但兩國是否有合作的可能?習近平提倡所謂的網路主權觀,而歐巴馬則主張、開放、自由與相互操作的全球網路體系,雙方針鋒相對。習近平的政策以國家為核心,從上至下掌控資訊流動,但美國的政策卻強調從下而上,透過鼓勵私部門、公民相互合作的夥伴關係,促進網路的發展。美中兩國在網路防護與科技的發展上相互競爭,從歷史觀之,兩國關係看似充滿衝突,但基於實際證據,再加上溫特互賴、共同命運、自我克制等觀念的解釋,本論文認為美中在網路安全上的合作,不僅必要也是可能的。在歐巴馬結束總統任期後,因為川普政府在亞洲政策上的不明朗,故外界產生不確定性與疑慮,本論文提供決策者相關的政策建議,期能將美中危險的網路安全關係導向和平之路。
英文摘要 China challenges U.S. dominance in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) raised fear that a high severity, total cyber warfare between major powers is imminent. This concern propels this research to explore the likelihood of U.S.-China total cyber warfare during Obama Administration. In Chapters 2 and 3, thesis applied theoretical approach of Social Theory of International Politics by Alexander Wendt. The concepts of identity, self-interest and intention are salient in analysis of U.S. and China strategic thinking and state cyber conflict behavior. Data from two global cyber power indexes provided credible evidence to confirm the frequency of cyber attacks does not represent true cyber capabilities. Empirical evidence from ten year study showed unconventional cooperative U.S.-China pattern of cyber conflict response marked by tolerance and restraint.
Another research motivation is to explore the possibility of U.S.-China cyber collaboration given the traditional rivalry. The fundamental ideological difference of Xi proposed “Internet Sovereignty”, a state-centric, top-down control model is in contrast with American policy of “an open, free and interoperable global Internet” reinforced by a bottom-up, collaborative multi-stakeholder model. As China continues to compete with U.S. in future development of future “hacker-free” Quantum Global Network, history showed power transitions are fraught with conflict and war. Based on empirical evidence and application of Wendt’s Master variables of interdependency, common fate, and self-restraint in Chapter 4, thesis argues U.S.-China cyber collaboration is necessary and possible to avoid the Thucydides Trap.
As Obama Presidency ends, uncertainty and fear arises from the ambiguity of Trump Administration foreign policy in Asia. The goal of the proposed recommendations in Chapter 5 is to direct foreign policy makers down a peaceful path in managing the precarious Sino-American cyber security relationship.
論文目次 Chapter 1 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Importance of Topic 1
1.2 Theoretical Framework 3
1.3 Literature Review 6
1.4 Thesis Chapter Outline 8
CHAPTER 2 10
CHINA PERSPECTIVE ON CYBER SECURITY 10
2.1 Synopsis 10
2.2 China Cyber Security Policy 10
2.3 China Cyber Security Strategies 17
2.4 China Cyber Strategic Outcome Assessment 24
CHAPTER 3 32
UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE ON CYBER SECURITY 32
3.1 Synopsis 32
3.2 United States Cyber Security Policy 32
3.3 United States Cyber Security Strategy 39
3.4 United States Cyber Strategic Outcome Assessment 47
3.5 Summary 53
CHAPTER 4 55
ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POWER DYNAMICS 55

IN CYBER SECURITY RELATIONSHIP 55
4.1 Synopsis 55
4.2 Analysis Of Cyber Conflict Relationship 55
4.3 Discussion on Sino-American Cyber Relationship 58
4.4 Possibility of Cyber Collaboration 70
4.5 Future Direction of Cyber Security Relationship Quantum Technology Race 78
CHAPTER 5 82
CONCLUSION 82
5.1 Research Findings 82
5.2 Recommendations 87
APPENDIX 1 92
BIBLIOGRAPHY 93

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Journal Articles
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Chen, Fusheng (Katie Chan). “Spreading Gunpowder Smoke on Cyber Warfare and How we Can Counter It.” Watchtower (2015).

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Conference Papers
Cai, Cuihong. “International Dimensions of National (In) Security Concepts, Challenges and Ways Forward”. 9th Berlin Conference on Asian Security (BCAS), June 14-16, 2015.

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“Apple Hits Back at ‘Corrosive’ Claim by U.S. Government.” BBC News Business, March 11, 2016. Accessed on October 24, 2016. Available from www.bbc.co.uk.
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Callagher, James. “Smartphone ‘Orders” Body To Treat Diabetes”. April 29, 2017. Accessed on May 1, 2017. Available from www.bbc.co.uk.

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Yu, Xiaoqiu. “Sincerity Is Needed For International Cooperation in Cybersecurity”. People’s Chinese Daily. March 1, 2010.

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Yu, Jiang. “Also China Denies Pentagon Cyber Raid.” BBC News, September 4, 2007.Accessed on March 15, 2016. Available from www.bbc.co.uk.

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Government Publication & Policy Papers
Central Intelligence Agency, Soviet Acquisition of Military Significant Western Technology: An Update, September 1985. Accessed on July 30, 2016. Available from www.dtic.mil.

Library of Congress, Rand Corporation Research. Getting to Yes With China in Cyberspace, ed. Scott Warren Harold, 2016.

President Barack Obama, Executive Order: Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, February 12, 2013. The White House Office of Press Secretary: Washington, D.C. Accessed on October 5, 2016. Available from www.whitehouse.com.

President Barack Obama, The Presidential Policy Directive. Cybersecurity: Five Things to Know: The Administration’s Priorities on Cybersecurity, February 13, 2013. The White House Press Office: Washington, D.C. Accessed on October 26, 2016. Available from www.whitehouse.com.

President Barack Obama, The White House. International Strategy for Cyberspace: Prosperity, Security, and Openness in a Networked World, 2011. Washington, D.C.: The White House Press Office. Accessed on December 20, 2016. Available from www.whitehouse.com.

The White House Press Release. Fact Sheet: Cybersecurity National Action Plan, February 9, 2016. Accessed on October 26, 2016. Available from www.whitehouse.com.

The White House Office of Press Secretary. Fact Sheet: US-China Economic Relations, September 25, 2015. Accessed November 15, 2016. Available www.whitehouse.com.

UN General Assembly Resolution A/70/174. Group of Government Experts on Development in the Field of Information & Telecommunications in Context of International Security, July 22, 2015. Accessed November 10, 2016. Available www.un.org.

UN Institute for Disarmament International Research (UNIDIR). Cybersecurity and Cyberwarfare: Preliminary Assessment of National Doctrine and Organization.” ed. James A. Lewis and K. Timlin, 2013.

U.S.-China and Security Review Committee Staff Report. China’s Position on the Sony Attack: Implications for the U.S. Response, ed. Jordan Wilson, January 14, 2015.

U.S. Cyber Command, Department of Defense. Cyber Guard 10 Fact Sheet: Commander’s Vision and Guidance for Cyber Command, 2015. Cyber Command Public Affairs.

US Department of Defense, JP1-02 Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms.

US Department of State. Preview of Seventh US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, June 18, 2015. Accessed February 16, 2016. Available from www.fpc.state.gov.

U.S. House of Congress. Report on U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission, November 2011.

U.S. National Communication and Information Administration (NTIA). Q & A on IANA Stewardship Transition, August 16, 2016. Accessed on October 4, 2016. Available from www.ntia.doc.gov.


US White House Press Office. International Strategy For Cyberspace: Prosperity, Security and Openness in a Networked World, 2012. Available from www.whitehouse.gov.

Speeches
Clapper, James, Director of National Intelligence. Statement of Record on “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.” Washington D.C., February 26, 2015.

Lei, Hong. Press Conference by Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. March 29, 2013.

Lu Wei. China-ROK Internet Roundtable Conference. December 10, 2013. Available from www.news.xinhuanet.com

President Xi Jinping. 1st session of National Security Commission of the Communist Party of China: “ Adhere to the Holistic National Security Outlook, and take a path of national security with Chinese characteristics”, April 15, 2014. Accessed on June 25, 2016. Available from www.politics.people.cn.

President Xi Jinping. First World Internet Conference. November 19, 2014. Accessed on February 25, 2016. Available from www.xinhuanet.com.


Videos

CCTV News. Crossover: Chinese Citizens on Hacking Allegation. February 21, 2013. Accessed February 26, 2016. Available from www.youtube.com

CCTV News. How Does China’s Quantum Satellite Work? August 2016. Accessed on January 13, 2017. Available from www.youtube.com

General Hayden, Michael V. Why is Cybersecurity So Hard? Institute of World Politics Cyber Intelligence Initiative Inaugural Conference, May 24, 2016. Accessed on February 23, 2017. Available from www.youtube.com.

Lindsay, John R. Role of Cybersecurity in Chinese Foreign Policy. Conference at Australia National Security College. February 18, 2016. Accessed June 10, 2016. Available from www.youtube.com.
International Research Reports & Surveys
Institute of Defense Analysis. Techniques for Cyber Attack Attribution: IDA Paper P3792, eds. David Wheeler and Gregory N. Larsen, November 2013.

The Economist Intelligence Unit. Global Power Index: Global Technology Report, Booz Allen and Hamilton, 2012.

Valeriano, Brandon and Ryan Maness, University of Illinois, Chicago. Research Study on
The Dynamics of Cyber Conflict Between Antagonists, 2001-2011. Published 2012.

World Economic Forum (WEF), The Global Information Technology Report, 2015.
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