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中文論文名稱 誰導致台指選擇權隱含波動率偏斜
英文論文名稱 Study on the Cause of the Skew on Implied Volatility of TXO?
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 黃曉雲
研究生英文姓名 Hsiao-Yun Huang
學號 798530084
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-05-20
論文頁數 56頁
口試委員 指導教授-段昌文
委員-羅庚辛
委員-蕭峯雄
委員-林容竹
中文關鍵字 台指選擇權  隱含波動率  淨買壓  波動率微笑 
英文關鍵字 TAIFEX option  Implied volatility  net buying pressure  volatility smile 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文利用2008年1月1日至2008年12月31日之台指選擇權的委託簿資料來探討交易人的淨買壓是否會影響台指選擇權波動率微笑或偏斜現象,我們的資料來源分別來自於期交所與台灣經濟新報資料庫。
實證結果發現,台指選擇權巿場上僅有特定選擇權序列存有偏斜現象。透過淨買壓與隱含波動率的相關係數檢定可發現,三週深價內買權波動率之偏斜現象是由外資的淨買壓所導致,造巿者之擲單則會引起一個月深價內賣權的波動率出現偏斜現象。
窺看台指選擇權巿場中的造巿者資格規範,造巿者是可兼營期貨自營商業務,制度有別於其他成熟國家。因此當造巿者之自營業務有高度避險需求時,將引導台指選擇權有正的淨買壓,並進一步導致台指選擇權巿場中特定選擇權序列的隱含波動率出現偏斜現象。所以我們推論台指選擇權巿場之造巿者並非單純只扮演流動性供給者的角色。
此外,文獻上指出指數選擇權的波動率偏斜現象是由於機構投資者為避險偏好買入深價外選擇權。但我們的實證結果卻顯示,造成台指選擇權波動率偏斜之交易人皆偏好買入深價內選擇權。可能原因是本文研究期間正好發生金融海嘯。在預期巿場未來下跌可能性較高時,外資偏好買入深價內買權避險。具期貨自營商身份的造巿者則偏好買入深價內賣權,以賺取更高額的利潤。
英文摘要 We apply order book data of TAIFEX options (TXO) during periods from Jan-1, 2008 to Dec-31, 2008, and then to explore whether net buying pressure of traders will affect the implied volatility smile or skewness of TXO. Our data source comes from Taiwan Future Exchange and TEJ database.
The empirical results find that specific option series only exhibit volatility skewness in TAIFEX options market. By observed correlation coefficient tests for between net buying pressure and implied volatility, the skewness of three weeks on deep in-the-money calls are caused by foreign investors, and one month on deep in-the-money puts caused by market makers.
We compare the gap between TXO’s and S&P500’s option markets on qualifications for market maker of option markets. One of the differences is that TXO’s market makers also as dealers. When market makers have high hedge demands, it would lead TXO to have net buying pressure and then it would happen the phenomenon of the implied volatility skewness in the specific option series. Therefore, we infer that market makers in TAIFEX options market do not only play the role of liquidity provider.
In addition, the literatures pointed out that the index option had the phenomenon of the volatility skewness because institutional investors would prefer to buy deep out-of-money options for hedge. On the contrary, our empirical results disclose that traders who effect the volatility skewness of TXO would prefer to buy deep in-the-money options. The reason might be that the period of our study took place the financial crisis. When the market might be expected to fall in the future, the foreign investors prefer to buy deep in-the-money calls for hedge. Otherwise, the market makers with the qualification of the future dealer would prefer to buy deep in-the-money puts for making higher profits.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究背景與動機1
第二節 研究目的2
第三節 研究架構5
第四節 研究流程6
第二章 文獻探討7
第一節 台指選擇權交易巿場結構7
第二節 隱含波動微笑相關文獻13
第三節 選擇權淨買壓相關文獻18
第四節 選擇權造巿者相關文獻20
第三章 研究方法22
第一節 樣本22
第二節 資料配對方法 24
第三節 隱含波動率、淨買壓估計與選擇權分類26
第四節 驗證法29
第四章 實證結果與分析31
第一節  台指選擇權隱含波動率之微笑現象31
第二節 淨買壓分析41
第三節  隱含波動率與淨買壓之相關性分析46
第五章 結論與建議52
參考文獻55

表目錄
表2-1 台指選擇權造巿者名單10
表2-2 造巿者報價價差限制11
表2-3 台指選擇權造巿者手續費折減率級距表12
表2-4 台指選擇權造巿者持續報價之手續費折減率級距表12
表3-1 選擇權分類表29
表4-1 所有選擇權之平均隱含波動率32
表4-2 買權之平均隱含波動率34
表4-3 賣權之平均隱含波動率35
表4-4 全部樣本期間之選擇權平均隱含波動率
表4-5 各存續期間下台指選擇權之微笑現象39
表4-5(續) 各存續期間下台指選擇權之微笑現象40
表4-6 買權平均每日淨買壓合約數42
表4-7 賣權平均每日淨買壓合約數44
表4-8 買權淨買壓與隱含波動率之相關係數檢定47
表4-8(續) 買權淨買壓與隱含波動率之相關係數檢定48
表4-9 賣權淨買壓與隱含波動率之相關係數檢定49
表4-9(續) 賣權淨買壓與隱含波動率之相關係數檢定50

圖目錄
圖2-1 詢價與報價流程圖.9
圖3-1 資料配對過程圖例說明25
圖4-1 所有選擇權隱含波動率折線圖33
圖4-2 買權隱含波動率折線圖34
圖4-3 賣權隱含波動率折線圖36
圖4-4 全部樣本期間之選擇權隱含波動率折線圖38
參考文獻 參考文獻
中文參考文獻
劉玉珍、李怡宗、林劭杰、李翎竹(2004),「國內選擇權巿場造巿者制度效益之初探」台灣期貨巿場雙月刊,第六卷第六期,頁17~28
英文參考文獻
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