本研究採用總體生產函數為研究對象，考慮各總體變數具有非定態性以及整體環境因素的差異，建立一總產出成長模型，同時導入生產效率與生產力觀念，估計OECD與東亞十國共34國的總體生產效率，進一步分解總要素生產力(TFP)，探討其決定因素為何，進行跨國比較。

根據產出成長模型估計結果，把樣本分為七大工業國、亞洲四小龍、亞洲非四小龍(5國)、以及其餘的樣本國(18國)等四群組。實證結果，所有資本與勞動的產量彈性平均值均為正，而規模彈性僅有七大工業國的平均值大於1，其餘的區域都小於1，屬於規模報酬遞減的特性，表示若所增加的要素投入均增加1倍時，總產量增加的比例小於1倍，即生產規模過大，建議縮小規模、亦或加快技術進步、提升生產效率。在TFP成長的決定因素方面，整體而言，主要因素在於技術進步。

茲依據本研究相關於台灣的發現與結論，簡述如下。我國資本和勞動的平均產量彈性皆低於樣本平均值，為達到有效促進生產提升勞力素質以及加速投資為當務之急。平均規模彈性估計值約0.5970，尚未達最適生產規模；在二氧化碳密度平均值高達1.1489，環境污染防制極需改善。

This paper proposes an aggregate production function, in which all of the variables are expressed in the first difference form to eliminate the nonstationarity of the variables. To estimate production efficiency and the total factor productivity (TFP), we collect data for 34 countries of OECD and East Asia in the period 1985-2000. After obtaining the parameter estimates, the rate of change of TFP is decomposed into technical progress, rate of change in technical efficiency, and scale effects.
 
We find that the average output elasticity capital and labor are both positive. Divided the sample countries into four categories, i.e., G-7, non G-7, four Asian dragons, and non Asian dragons. Evidence is found that the value of scale effect of G-7 is greater than one, the rest of three categories are less than one. Generally speaking, the technical progress dominates the other two components to TFP growth.

Valuable policy implications for Taiwan can be drawn on the basis of our empirical results. Due to the output elasticity of labor and capital in Taiwan are much lower than the sample average, it should work every efforts to promote the labor quality and to accelerate the investment. The average estimate of scale effect is merely 0.5970, implying that there is large room to improve its production scale. Moreover, the average density of Carbon Dioxide is reaching the edge 1.1489. The regulation of pollutions is deeply in need.

目次
第一章 前言  
1.1研究背景  ……………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2研究動機  ……………………………………………………………………… 2
1.3研究目的  ……………………………………………………………………… 3
第二章 文獻回顧                                  
2.1經濟發展介紹  ………………………………………………………………… 4
2.2估計方法  ……………………………………………………………………… 7
第三章 模型設定  
3.1總體生產函數  …………………………………………………………………10
3.2函數設定  ………………………………………………………………………12
3.3總要素生產力  …………………………………………………………………14
3.4實證迴歸模型  …………………………………………………………………15
第四章 樣本資料與變數定義
4.1樣本資料與變數定義……………………………………………………………17
第五章 實證分析
5.1參數估計結果  …………………………………………………………………27
5.2各項指標計算  …………………………………………………………………29
第六章 結論與政策建議
6.1結論  ……………………………………………………………………………50
6.2政策建議  ………………………………………………………………………51
附錄 
附錄1 表格補充……………………………………………………………………53
附錄2 機率密度函數與期望值推…………………………………………………64
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………………67
圖表次
圖1-1 研究架構圖………………………………………………………………… 4
圖4-1 各年度實質國內生產毛額( Y )…………………………………………… 20圖4-2 各年度之總體要素投入( X1 )……………………………………………… 20
圖4-3 各年度之總體要素投入( X2 )……………………………………………… 21
圖4-4 四區域二氧化碳排放密度………………………………………………… 21
圖4-5 四區域專利權核准數……………………………………………………… 21
圖5-1 模型1各年度要素投入之產量彈性……………………………………… 36
圖5-2 模型1各年度TFP之分解………………………………………………… 47

表4-1 變數資料來源與定義……………………………………………………… 19
表4-2 產出與要素投入之樣本統計量…………………………………………… 22
表4-3 資本勞動比與環境變數之樣本統計量…………………………………… 24
表5-1 各模型的係數估計值……………………………………………………… 26
表5-2 模型1 四區域要素投入之產量彈性……………………………………… 30
表5-3 模型1 四區域分三時段之資本產量彈性………………………………… 33
表5-4 模型1 四區域分三時段之勞動產量彈性………………………………… 34
表5-5 模型1 四區域分三時段之規模彈性……………………………………… 35
表5-6 模型3 四區域要素投入之產量彈性……………………………………… 37
表5-7 模型1 四區域分三時段之技術效率估計值……………………………… 40
表5-8 模型1 四區域分三時段之TFP變動率…………………………………… 41
表5-9 模型1 四區域TFP成長之分解 ………………………………………… 42
表5-10 模型1 四區域分三時段之技術效率變動率 …………………………… 45
表5-11 模型1 四區域分三時段之技術變動率 ………………………………… 46
表5-12 模型1 四區域分三時段之總規模效果 ………………………………… 48
表5-13模型3 四區域 TFP成長之分解………………………………………… 49
附錄1-1 變數之各年度的樣本統計量…………………………………………… 53
附錄1-2 變數之各年度的樣本統計量…………………………………………… 54
附錄1-3 模型1 各年度要素投入之產量彈性…………………………………… 55
附錄1-4 模型1 各年度TFP成長之分解………………………………………… 56
附錄1-5 模型5與模型6係數估計值…………………………………………… 57
附錄1-6 模型1各國要素投入之產量彈性……………………………………… 58
附錄1-7 模型1 各國TFP成長之分解…………………………………………… 60
附錄1-8 模型1 各國產出成長之分解…………………………………………… 62

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