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中文論文名稱 伏現中的政治文化與台灣未來: 318太陽花學運影響力個案研究
英文論文名稱 Emerging Political Cultures and Taiwan Futures: A Case Study of the Sunflower/318 Legacy
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 未來學研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Futures Studies
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生中文姓名 柯望鯨
研究生英文姓名 McGregor Keith
學號 607705026
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
第二語文別 中文
口試日期 2020-07-01
論文頁數 110頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳國華
委員-紀舜傑
委員-方顆璇
中文關鍵字 太陽花學運  導因層次分析  台灣未來  情節分析  時代力量 
英文關鍵字 Sunflower Movement  Causal Layered Analysis  Taiwan Futures  Scenarios  New Power Party 
學科別分類 學科別人文學哲學
中文摘要 自太陽花學運及318 佔領立法院行動以來,六年已過去,而台灣的政治也在這期間發生顯著地變化,值得我們探討。當年參與太陽花學運的青年學子們,在諸多社運活動的洗禮下,如今蛻變成長,整個台灣也和他們一同發展。與此同時,在太陽花學運影響後成立的「時代力量」,也是最能象徵此社運的政黨,在2020 年中華民國總統副總統及立法委員選舉期間裡,流失了許多重要的黨內成員以及支持者。隨著這些起起落落,如今「時代力量」的混亂局面,讓太陽花世代的理想
破滅。站在十字路口面對未來,他們尚未有明確藍圖。

此論文運用未來民族誌學以及長時間、針對太陽花世代的半結構性訪談,呈現瀰漫在近來「進步社運」文化中的緊張情勢,尤其關於「時代力量」所扮演的角色。結果顯示,當年太陽花學運的參與者如今優先考慮事項也與六年前有所不同,而一群不同於他們的年輕世代正逐漸崛起。為闡明發生這些變化的原因,內文運用多類別導因層次分析圖表,檢視當前太陽花學運裡的交互隱喻;接著,一張關於未來2040 年發想情節分析的二乘二矩陣表格,提供關於「時代力量」的全新見解,及其作為太陽花學運的傳承象徵。最後調查結果發現,學運的後續發展需要更明確的願景,由下而上的組織改革是必須,「時代力量」無法保證能持續作為太陽花學運的傳承象徵;另外,太陽花參與者若不願在政治上被孤立、邊緣化,其必须彌合與不同世代間的代溝。
英文摘要 With more than six years having passed since the start of the Sunflower/318 Movement and its 318 Occupation of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s political context has changed significantly, enticing further study. A youth-oriented movement, Sunflower/318 participants have grown and acquired experience that, in many ways, they did not possess when the movement first began, and Taiwan as a whole has evolved along with them. At the same time, perhaps the most visible symbol for the continued political impact of the movement, the New Power Party (NPP), has lost many of its key members and failed to find greater support at the polls in the recent January 2020 general election. With the movement’s broader collection of victories and failures, the disillusionment that comes with the NPP’s current state of disarray places the Sunflower/318 generation at something of a crossroads,
unsure of how to proceed into the future.

This thesis uses futures ethnographic methods and semi-structured, long-form interviews conducted with members of Taiwan’s Sunflower/318 generation as a way of delineating some of the tensions within the current culture of progressive activism, especially concerning the role of the NPP. The results of this research indicate that the Sunflower/318 generation of activists have rather different priorities in 2020 than they may have had six years ago and that a younger, different generation is now gradually emerging. In an attempt to clarify the drivers of these changes, a multi-category CLA chart examines the current
interplay of Sunflower/318’s underlying metaphors. Then, a 2 x 2 matrix of speculative scenarios looks from the perspective of the year 2040 for new insight into the role of the NPP as a Sunflower/318 legacy symbol. Findings conclude that clearer visions are needed, bottom-up organizational reform is necessary, the NPP’s role as a legacy symbol is
contingent, and that the Sunflower/318 activists need to bridge their generation gaps if they are to avoid the fate of growing out of touch and isolating themselves politically.
論文目次 INDEX

Chapter 1 - Introduction p. 1
Introduction p. 1
Research Objective p. 8
Research Question p. 8
Study Significance p. 9
Chapter 2 - Literature Review p. 10
Part 1- Taiwan’s Future as a Space of Conflict and “Becoming” p. 10
Part 2 - Political Obstacles and Utopia p. 15
Part 3 - The Social Movement Party p. 19
Part 4 - The Generation Gap p. 25
Chapter 3 - Methodology p. 29
Chapter 4 - Results and Discussion p. 39
Chapter 5 - Analysis p. 86
Part 1- CLA p. 86
Part 2 - Scenarios p. 95
Chapter 6 - Conclusion p. 102
Study limitations p. 102
Concluding Statements p. 102
References p. 105

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 1: List of Respondents and their Basic Information p. 32
Table 2: Multiple-Category Causal-Layered Analysis p. 87

Figure 1: Taiwan GDP | 1980-2019 Data | 2020-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart | News p. 6
Figure 2: 2 x 2 Matrix Template p. 38
Figure 3: A quick sketch of Earth and the Solar System linking to protect the Sun’s energy in
a Far distant future p. 76
Figure 4: 2 x 2 Scenario Matrix - 2040 CE p. 96
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