||Emerging Political Cultures and Taiwan Futures:
A Case Study of the Sunflower/318 Legacy
||Graduate Institute of Futures Studies
Causal Layered Analysis
New Power Party
||自太陽花學運及318 佔領立法院行動以來，六年已過去，而台灣的政治也在這期間發生顯著地變化，值得我們探討。當年參與太陽花學運的青年學子們，在諸多社運活動的洗禮下，如今蛻變成長，整個台灣也和他們一同發展。與此同時，在太陽花學運影響後成立的「時代力量」，也是最能象徵此社運的政黨，在2020 年中華民國總統副總統及立法委員選舉期間裡，流失了許多重要的黨內成員以及支持者。隨著這些起起落落，如今「時代力量」的混亂局面，讓太陽花世代的理想
||With more than six years having passed since the start of the Sunflower/318 Movement and its 318 Occupation of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s political context has changed significantly, enticing further study. A youth-oriented movement, Sunflower/318 participants have grown and acquired experience that, in many ways, they did not possess when the movement first began, and Taiwan as a whole has evolved along with them. At the same time, perhaps the most visible symbol for the continued political impact of the movement, the New Power Party (NPP), has lost many of its key members and failed to find greater support at the polls in the recent January 2020 general election. With the movement’s broader collection of victories and failures, the disillusionment that comes with the NPP’s current state of disarray places the Sunflower/318 generation at something of a crossroads,
unsure of how to proceed into the future.
This thesis uses futures ethnographic methods and semi-structured, long-form interviews conducted with members of Taiwan’s Sunflower/318 generation as a way of delineating some of the tensions within the current culture of progressive activism, especially concerning the role of the NPP. The results of this research indicate that the Sunflower/318 generation of activists have rather different priorities in 2020 than they may have had six years ago and that a younger, different generation is now gradually emerging. In an attempt to clarify the drivers of these changes, a multi-category CLA chart examines the current
interplay of Sunflower/318’s underlying metaphors. Then, a 2 x 2 matrix of speculative scenarios looks from the perspective of the year 2040 for new insight into the role of the NPP as a Sunflower/318 legacy symbol. Findings conclude that clearer visions are needed, bottom-up organizational reform is necessary, the NPP’s role as a legacy symbol is
contingent, and that the Sunflower/318 activists need to bridge their generation gaps if they are to avoid the fate of growing out of touch and isolating themselves politically.
Chapter 1 - Introduction p. 1
Introduction p. 1
Research Objective p. 8
Research Question p. 8
Study Significance p. 9
Chapter 2 - Literature Review p. 10
Part 1- Taiwan’s Future as a Space of Conflict and “Becoming” p. 10
Part 2 - Political Obstacles and Utopia p. 15
Part 3 - The Social Movement Party p. 19
Part 4 - The Generation Gap p. 25
Chapter 3 - Methodology p. 29
Chapter 4 - Results and Discussion p. 39
Chapter 5 - Analysis p. 86
Part 1- CLA p. 86
Part 2 - Scenarios p. 95
Chapter 6 - Conclusion p. 102
Study limitations p. 102
Concluding Statements p. 102
References p. 105
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 1: List of Respondents and their Basic Information p. 32
Table 2: Multiple-Category Causal-Layered Analysis p. 87
Figure 1: Taiwan GDP | 1980-2019 Data | 2020-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart | News p. 6
Figure 2: 2 x 2 Matrix Template p. 38
Figure 3: A quick sketch of Earth and the Solar System linking to protect the Sun’s energy in
a Far distant future p. 76
Figure 4: 2 x 2 Scenario Matrix - 2040 CE p. 96
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