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系統識別號 U0002-2806201417553900
中文論文名稱 情緒指標對投資績效的影響
英文論文名稱 The Effect of Sentiment Indexes to Investment Performance
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 管理科學學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master’s Program, Department of Management Sciences
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 董柏均
研究生英文姓名 Pu-Chin Tung
學號 601620825
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2014-06-20
論文頁數 34頁
口試委員 指導教授-倪衍森
委員-曹銳勤
委員-蕭文姃
中文關鍵字 VIX指數  賣買權比  券資比 
英文關鍵字 VIX index  Put-call Ratio  Short selling Margin 
學科別分類
中文摘要 近年來投資人情緒反應對股市所造成的影響逐漸成為眾人所關心的課題,然而,大部份的投資者都無法利用情緒指數來使投資績效為有利可圖,所以本研究主要目的是讓投資者利用情緒指數來判斷何時進行投資時機比較有利。
而研究結果顯示:當投資人在VIX處於低檔時做長期投資,在VIX處於高檔時做短期投資;在賣買權比率處於高檔時做長期投資;投資人在券資比比率處於高檔時做長期投資,特別是在短期內投資人可能獲利的機會高出許多。這些結果顛覆了許多投資者的想像,也幫助了投資者利用情緒指數使投資績效更加有利可圖。
英文摘要 Recently, market participants are interested in the impact on the stock market resulting from investors’ sentiments gradually, but it seems that most investors are unable to make profit by using the indicators of investors’sentiments. In this study, we not only explore whether investors are able to make profits by using the investors’ sentiments, but also endeavor to exploit the favorable investment opportunities in accordance with the indicators of investors’ sentiments. Then we reveal several important findings as shown below.
First, we reveal that investors had better to implement the long-term investment as the VIX index located at the low level measured by RSI technical indicators; but investors might carry out the short-term investment as the VIX index at the high level. Second, the long-term investments would be recommended as the put-call ratio located at the high level. Third, when the ratio, short-selling over margin is located at the high level, the probability of make profit would be enhanced for the short-term investment. These results revealed are rather impressive for investors, which would enhance the profitability for investing in accordance with investors’ sentiments.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 4
第四節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 情緒與資本市場之關聯性 6
第二節 VIX指標與投資績效 7
第三節 賣買權比、券資比與投資績效 8
第三章 研究假說與方法 11
第一節 研究資料與變數 11
第二節 研究假說 13
第三節 研究方法 14
第四章 實證結果與分析 17
第一節 敘述性統計量 17
第二節 VIX假說之驗證與分析 17
第三節 賣買權比假說之驗證與分析 21
第四節 券資比假說之驗證與分析 24
第五節 時間序列模型分析 27
第五章 結論與建議 29
第一節 研究結論 29
第二節 研究意涵 30
第三節 研究限制與建議 30
參考文獻 32

表目錄
表4-1 敘述統計量 17
表4-2 VIX指標高低檔與投資績效 18
表4-3 VIX指標介入之月報酬與週報酬差異 19
表4-4 VIX高低檔介入是否有所不同 20
表4-5 賣買權指標高低檔與投資績效 21
表4-6 賣買權指標介入之月報酬與週報酬差異 22
表4-7 賣買權比高低檔介入是否有所不同 23
表4-8 券資比指標高低檔與投資績效 24
表4-9 券資比指標介入之月報酬與週報酬差異 25
表4-10 券資比高低檔介入是否有所不同 26
表4-11 各指數之單根檢定 27
表4-12 各指數之因果關係檢定 28

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖 4



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