本文以臺灣地區塑膠工業12家公司的營業收益額為標的，探索美國次級房貸金融風暴期間內，該產業資本結構與公司表現間的關聯性。實證研究首先採用事件分析法，並以營業收益自我迴歸模型為基礎，估計預測模型並計算代表公司表現的營業收益異常值。其次，比較2008年第二季前後各八季的營業收異異常值，觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異。最後，採用縱橫資料分析法，估計2008Q1到2010Q2風暴期間內，樣本公司淨值、長期負債、銀行授信與應付帳款/票據四種資本結構變數，估計其對營收異常值的影響，判斷不同資本結構的優劣。
實證估計結果顯示，12家樣本公司的表現不一。縱橫資料估計結果顯示，金融風暴特別不利於高槓桿比的公司。然而，應付帳款/票據則扮演不顯著的震盪吸收角色。

This thesis empirically examines the effectiveness of various capital structures in coping with the adverse effects of the U.S. subprime financial crises on the Plastics industry in Taiwan. The quarterly sales of the 12 selected sample firms are examined. The event study method which uses the autoregressive model as the foundation for creating a forecasting model, are adopted to calculate the abnormal sales level to represent performances of the sample firms. Comparisons of the performances of the sample firms during the 8 seasons before and after the 2nd season of 2008 are conducted. The panel data analysis of the effects of 4 capital structures, namely the ratios of equity, long term liabilities, bank finance and accounts/ notes payables to total assets on the abnormal sales are then conducted using data covering the 10 seasons beginning from 2008Q1 to 2010Q2 and regression coefficients estimated.
The empirical studies have shown that the performance of the12 sample firms varies and that firms with high leverage ratio suffered a lot during the financial crisis period. However, account/notes payable plays insignificant role in absorbing the external shocks.

目錄
誌謝辭	I
中文摘要	II
英文摘要	III
目錄	IV
圖目錄	VI
表目錄	VI
第壹章 導論	1
第一節 研究動機	1
第二節 塑膠工業產業概況簡介	4
第三節 本文架構	6
第貳章 文獻回顧	8
第一節 資本結構理論	8
第二節 金融風暴衝擊的研究	12
第三節 本文研究方法	13
第叁章 塑膠工業12家公司概況	15
第一節 樣本公司簡介	15
第二節 金融風暴前後各樣本公司營收值變動情況	24
第三節 樣本公司財務結構概況	26
第肆章 實證研究方法與結果	28
第一節 事件研究分析法與縱橫資料估計法	28
第二節 本文資料來源與敘述統計	39
第三節 事件分析結果	46
第四節 縱橫資料法估計結果	56
第伍章 結論	58
參考文獻	60

圖目錄
圖1 - 1中華民國間接金融與直接金融流量	3
圖1 – 2中華民國實質GDP成長率	3
圖1 – 3石化工業產業關聯圖	5
圖3 - 1塑膠工業營業收益圖2000/1~2010/12	25
圖3 - 2塑膠工業財務結構比例圖2000年~2010年	26
圖4 - 1塑膠工業營業收益圖2006Q3~2010Q2	40
圖4 – 2塑膠工業營業收益實際值與預測值2006Q3~2010Q2	51

表目錄
表3 - 1本研究樣本公司簡介	23
表4 - 1本文統計資料定義與來源	39
表4 - 2臺灣地區塑膠工業12家公司營業收益基本統計值	42
表4 - 3臺灣地區塑膠工業12家公司四種財務結構比例	44
表4 - 4各公司營業收益自我迴歸模型估計結果	48
表4 - 5樣本公司營業收益之實際值、預測值與異常值估計	49
表4 - 6事件影響假設檢定	55
表4 - 7營業收益異常值縱橫資料模型估計結果	56

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