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系統識別號 U0002-2806201313132700
中文論文名稱 美國自然犯罪率-以區域之觀點
英文論文名稱 American Natural crime-The perspectives of regional
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 產業經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial Economics
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生中文姓名 張錦煌
研究生英文姓名 Jin-Huang Chang
學號 600540289
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2013-06-20
論文頁數 124頁
口試委員 指導教授-劉德芝
委員-林佩蒨
委員-王譯賢
中文關鍵字 自然犯罪  區域  CBL單根檢定  H-P filter 
英文關鍵字 Natural crime  regional  CBL unit root test  H-P filter 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究重點在於以個別區域犯罪率,重點觀察有無自然犯罪率存在,有別於Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth(2010)所著「Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?」中以美國單一平均犯罪率觀點。

景氣之更迭,對於犯罪率究竟有無其影響性?其中各種犯罪類型佔總犯罪較大部分比例如:財產犯罪、入室竊盜、汽機車竊盜等,可明顯看出這些犯罪乃圍繞金錢及物質上的需求,故本研究經由實證分析找尋是否有自然失業率的存在;及觀察美國景氣衰退時點,對照於經H-P Filter調整之美國犯罪率趨勢是否達到高峰,且佐以其他研究數據分析,歸納其犯罪之主要成因。

Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth(2010)以美國總體年犯罪率資料,唯一以實證得出存在自然犯罪率之結論,作出應著眼於長期經濟及社會結構配置的建議;而本研究以劃分美國區域的年犯罪資料來進行研究,此一差別重點著眼於,以區域之觀點更能清楚理解,各區域間犯罪率波動程度不同可能受地理位置、社會結構等因素的不同,故長期下所應施行之政策並不侷限於經濟層面。
英文摘要 This study focuses on an individual regional crime rates, focus to observe whether there is crime natural, unlike Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth (2010) book "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?" Average crime rate in the United States point of view.

Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth (2010) uses the overall crime rate data of the United States and finds out the only evidence of existing the natural crime rate. It advises that it should focus on the long-term of economic and the configuration of social structure. This study uses the year crime data of the divided regions of the U.S. for research , a difference is that in the view of region to understand more clearly the crime rate of each region may be affected by different levels of geographical location and social structure etc..Thus, in the long run , the policies should not be limited to the aspects of economic.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究步驟及方法 3
第四節 本文架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 犯罪行為之文獻探討 6
第二節 探討造成犯罪之經濟面因素 9
第三節 自然犯罪率理論基礎架構 14
第三章 研究方法 19
第一節 Panel聯合單根檢定 20
第二節 CBL多重結構點單根檢定 23
第三節 H-P filter 25
第四章 實證結果 27
第一節 資料來源與敘述統計 27
第二節 實證結果與分析 49
第五章 結論與建議 117
第一節 結論 117
第二節 建議 119
參考文獻 120





圖目錄
圖4-1 2004年美國各州暴力犯罪統計 28
圖4-2 各州地理位置圖 28
圖4-3 50個區域Violent的犯罪人數趨勢圖 32
圖4-4 50個區域Property的犯罪人數趨勢圖 34
圖4-5 50個區域Murder的犯罪人數趨勢圖 36
圖4-6 50個區域Forcible Rape的犯罪人數趨勢圖 38
圖4-7 50個區域Robbery的犯罪人數趨勢圖 40
圖4-8 50個區域Aggravated assault的犯罪人數趨勢圖 42
圖4-9 50個區域Burglary的犯罪人數趨勢圖 44
圖4-10 50個區域Larceny-Theft的犯罪人數趨勢圖 46
圖4-11 50個區域Vehicle Theft的犯罪人數趨勢圖 48
圖4-12 Violent類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 76
圖4-13 Property類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 80
圖4-14 Murder類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 84
圖4-15 Forcible Rape類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 88
圖4-16 Robbery類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 92
圖4-17 Aggravated assault類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 96
圖4-18 Burglary類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 100
圖4-19 Larceny-Theft類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 104
圖4-20 Vehicle Theft類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖 108





表目錄
表2-1 失業對於犯罪類型相關性文獻彙整 13
表4-2 50個區域Violent的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 31
表4-3 50個區域Property的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 32
表4-4 50個區域Murder的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 35
表4-5 50個區域Forcible Rape的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 37
表4-6 50個區域Robbery的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 39
表4-7 50個區域Aggravated assault的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 41
表4-8 50個區域Burglary的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 43
表4-9 50個區域Larceny-Theft的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 45
表4-10 50個區域Vehicle Theft的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人) 47
表4-11 對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行LLC單根檢定 49
表4-12 對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行IPS單根檢定 51
表4-13 對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行Hadri單根檢定 53
表4-14 50個區域Violent類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 55
表4-15 50個區域Property類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 57
表4-16 50個區域Murder類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 59
表4-17 50個區域Forcible Rape類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 61
表4-18 50個區域Robbery類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 63
表4-19 50個區域Aggravated assault類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 65
表4-20 50個區域Burglary類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 67
表4-21 50個區域Larceny-Theft類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 69
表4-22 50個區域Vehicle Theft類型犯罪CBL檢定結果 71
表4-23 US Business Cycle 75

參考文獻 參考文獻
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