本研究重點在於以個別區域犯罪率，重點觀察有無自然犯罪率存在，有別於Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth(2010)所著「Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?」中以美國單一平均犯罪率觀點。

   景氣之更迭，對於犯罪率究竟有無其影響性？其中各種犯罪類型佔總犯罪較大部分比例如：財產犯罪、入室竊盜、汽機車竊盜等，可明顯看出這些犯罪乃圍繞金錢及物質上的需求，故本研究經由實證分析找尋是否有自然失業率的存在；及觀察美國景氣衰退時點，對照於經H-P Filter調整之美國犯罪率趨勢是否達到高峰，且佐以其他研究數據分析，歸納其犯罪之主要成因。
 
   Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth(2010)以美國總體年犯罪率資料，唯一以實證得出存在自然犯罪率之結論，作出應著眼於長期經濟及社會結構配置的建議；而本研究以劃分美國區域的年犯罪資料來進行研究，此一差別重點著眼於，以區域之觀點更能清楚理解，各區域間犯罪率波動程度不同可能受地理位置、社會結構等因素的不同，故長期下所應施行之政策並不侷限於經濟層面。

This study focuses on an individual regional crime rates, focus to observe whether there is crime natural, unlike Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth (2010) book "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?" Average crime rate in the United States point of view.

    Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth (2010) uses the overall crime rate data of the United States and finds out the only evidence of existing the natural crime rate. It advises that it should focus on the long-term of economic and the configuration of social structure. This study uses the year crime data of the divided regions of the U.S. for research , a difference is that in the view of region to understand more clearly the crime rate of each region may be affected by different levels of geographical location and social structure etc..Thus, in the long run , the policies should not be limited to the aspects of economic.

目錄
第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究背景與動機	1
第二節  研究目的	3
第三節  研究步驟及方法	3
第四節  本文架構	4
第二章  文獻探討	6
第一節  犯罪行為之文獻探討	6
第二節  探討造成犯罪之經濟面因素	9
第三節  自然犯罪率理論基礎架構	14
第三章  研究方法	19
第一節  Panel聯合單根檢定	20
第二節  CBL多重結構點單根檢定	23
第三節  H-P filter	25
第四章  實證結果	27
第一節  資料來源與敘述統計	27
第二節  實證結果與分析	49
第五章  結論與建議	117
第一節  結論	117
第二節  建議	119
參考文獻	120





圖目錄
圖4-1   2004年美國各州暴力犯罪統計	28
圖4-2   各州地理位置圖	28
圖4-3   50個區域Violent的犯罪人數趨勢圖	32
圖4-4   50個區域Property的犯罪人數趨勢圖	34
圖4-5   50個區域Murder的犯罪人數趨勢圖	36
圖4-6   50個區域Forcible Rape的犯罪人數趨勢圖	38
圖4-7   50個區域Robbery的犯罪人數趨勢圖	40
圖4-8   50個區域Aggravated assault的犯罪人數趨勢圖	42
圖4-9   50個區域Burglary的犯罪人數趨勢圖	44
圖4-10  50個區域Larceny-Theft的犯罪人數趨勢圖	46
圖4-11  50個區域Vehicle Theft的犯罪人數趨勢圖	48
圖4-12  Violent類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	76
圖4-13  Property類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	80
圖4-14  Murder類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	84
圖4-15  Forcible Rape類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	88
圖4-16  Robbery類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	92
圖4-17  Aggravated assault類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	96
圖4-18  Burglary類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	100
圖4-19  Larceny-Theft類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	104
圖4-20  Vehicle Theft類型犯罪數據經H-P filter的趨勢圖	108





表目錄
表2-1   失業對於犯罪類型相關性文獻彙整	13
表4-2   50個區域Violent的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	31
表4-3   50個區域Property的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	32
表4-4   50個區域Murder的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	35
表4-5   50個區域Forcible Rape的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	37
表4-6   50個區域Robbery的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	39
表4-7   50個區域Aggravated assault的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	41
表4-8   50個區域Burglary的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	43
表4-9   50個區域Larceny-Theft的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	45
表4-10  50個區域Vehicle Theft的犯罪人數敘述統計(每10萬人)	47
表4-11  對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行LLC單根檢定	49
表4-12  對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行IPS單根檢定	51
表4-13  對50個區域9種犯罪類型進行Hadri單根檢定	53
表4-14  50個區域Violent類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	55
表4-15  50個區域Property類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	57
表4-16  50個區域Murder類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	59
表4-17  50個區域Forcible Rape類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	61
表4-18  50個區域Robbery類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	63
表4-19  50個區域Aggravated assault類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	65
表4-20  50個區域Burglary類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	67
表4-21  50個區域Larceny-Theft類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	69
表4-22  50個區域Vehicle Theft類型犯罪CBL檢定結果	71
表4-23  US Business Cycle	75

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