隨著人類壽命不斷延長，在財富有限下，家計單位將會透過調整其消費及投資決策以因應，而不同年齡層家計單位之決策行為亦有所差異。因此本研究藉由實驗經濟學之方式，以觀察長壽風險因素對不同年齡層家計單位消費和投資決策之關係。
    本研究結合問卷資訊與實驗決策，模擬有無考慮長壽風險下之情境，分析家計單位於退休前後和全部期間的消費與投資決策變化。受試者為已婚之家計單位，並分為30歲、40歲和50歲之年齡族群，以了解不同年齡群族對於長壽風險認知之差異。此外，亦繪製動態分析圖，以觀測在長壽風險因素下不同年齡層家計單位消費與投資決策的變化趨勢。
    本研究結果顯示，(1)長壽風險因素與消費投資變化：在消費決策方面，由於習慣形成難以改變，因此消費決策之變化較不顯著；而在投資決策方面，家計單位中為女性、教育程度較高、子女數較多、預期壽命較低、遺產意願較高、工作收入較低、保健支出較高和風險趨避程度較高者，傾向增加無風險性資產比例而降低風險性資產比例以因應長壽風險。(2)就不同年齡家計單位對長壽風險認知之差異：與是否能完全理解長壽風險之意義和實驗操作有關，故於30歲家計單位解釋能力最好，40歲次之，50歲則較差。(3)至於消費及投資動態變化：30歲家計單位傾向在全部期間增加風險性資產比例而降低無風險性資產比例因應長壽風險；40歲和50歲家計單位傾向在退休前增加無風險性資產比例而降低風險性資產比例，退休後則增加風險性資產比例降低無風險資產比例因應長壽風險。

The purpose of this paper is using a questionnaire and experimental methodology to investigate the difference between varied age households who will change their consumption and investment plans when facing their longevity risk. In order to understand the difference of longevity risk awareness in different age households, the participants in this experiment  who must be the head of a household, married, and divided thirty, forty and fifty years old into three different age groups. Furthermore, this paper also use the dynamic figure to analyze the change of consumption and investment decisions. 
The main findings of this paper are described as follow. (1) Based on “Habit Formation”, households prefer to adjust their investment decisions rather than their consumption decisions in order to deal with longevity risk. Moreover, female households,with highly education level, more children, lower life expectancy, more bequest motivation, lower income, higher health-care expenditure and greater risk aversion tend to reduce their proportion of risky assets with a longevity risk. (2)With the difference of longevity risk awareness between different age households, they have the distinct behavior response to the longevity risk.(3) As for the changing of consumption and investment decisions, thirty year-old households tend to reduce their proportion of risky assets to deal with the longevity risk in whole life. Forty year-old and fifty year-old households tend to reduce their proportion of risk-free assets to deal with the longevity risk before retirement. Further, they tend to increase their risky asset holdings after retirement.

目錄

第一章  緒論	1
第一節 研究背景	1
第二節 研究動機	5
第三節 研究目的	7
第四節 研究範圍	8
第五節 研究流程與架構	9
第二章  文獻回顧	11
第一節 實驗經濟學	11
第二節 長壽風險	15
第三節 人口老化與消費及投資決策	17
第四節 風險態度之衡量	23
第三章  研究方法	26
第一節 研究資料來源	26
第二節 實驗設計與流程	26
第三節 變數定義與說明	39
第四節 實驗資料分析方法	50
第五節 研究模型之建立	51
第四章  實證結果與分析	53
第一節 敘述性統計分析	53
第二節 皮爾森相關分析	70
第三節 線性迴歸分析	80
第四節 動態分析	112
第五章  結論與建議	119
第一節 結論	119
第二節 研究建議	122
參考文獻	125
附件	130
圖目錄
圖1-1外國高齡人口佔比趨勢圖	1
圖1-2我國高齡人口佔比趨勢圖	2
圖1-3外國兩性平均餘命趨勢圖	3
圖1-4我國兩性平均餘命趨勢圖	3
圖1-5外國老年人口依賴比趨勢圖	4
圖1-6我國老年人口依賴比趨勢圖	5
圖1-7研究流程架構圖	10
圖3-1實驗流程示意圖	27
圖3-2註冊帳號示意圖	28
圖3-3實驗目的說明圖	28
圖3-4實驗流程說明圖	29
圖3-5實驗前問卷示意圖	30
圖3-6實驗前問卷說明圖	30
圖3-7受試者年齡設定說明圖	31
圖3-8工作階段與退休階段說明圖	32
圖3-9消費決策資訊說明圖	32
圖3-10投資決策資訊說明圖	33
圖3-11實驗主介面之說明圖	34
圖3-12消費決策實驗介面之說明圖	34
圖3-13-1投資決策實驗介面之說明圖	35
圖3-13-2投資決策實驗介面之說明圖	35
圖3-14實驗流程步驟圖	36
圖3-15受試者決策流程圖	37
圖3-16展延期數分配圖	45
圖3-17台灣省最低生活費趨勢圖	47
圖4-1有無長壽風險下存款比例平均數分析圖(30歲家計單位)	113
圖4-2有無長壽風險下股票比例平均數分析圖(30歲家計單位)	113
圖4-3有無長壽風險下消費比例平均數分析圖(30歲家計單位)	114
圖4-4有無長壽風險下存款比例平均數分析圖(40歲家計單位)	115
圖4-5有無長壽風險下股票比例平均數分析圖(40歲家計單位)	116
圖4-6有無長壽風險下消費比例平均數分析圖(40歲家計單位)	116
圖4-7有無長壽風險下存款比例平均數分析圖(50歲家計單位)	118
圖4-8有無長壽風險下股票比例平均數分析圖(50歲家計單位)	118
圖4-9有無長壽風險下消費比例平均數分析圖(50歲家計單位)	119

表目錄
表3-1實驗前問卷變數分析表	39
表3-2人口性別分佈(2010年)與兩性平均餘命(2009年)分析表	40
表3-3各年齡階層教育程度分佈表	40
表3-4每月工作收入與初始工作收入之轉換分析表	42
表3-5淨資產與實驗初始財富之轉換分析表	43
表3-6預期年齡與實驗期數之轉換分析表	44
表3-7 65歲至78歲與79至100歲之死亡率分析表	45
表3-8實驗之股票投資報酬率分析表	48
表 3-9變數定義彙整表	49
表4-1受試樣本結構分析(30歲家計單位)	56
表4-2受試樣本結構分析(40歲家計單位)	57
表4-3受試樣本結構分析(50歲家計單位)	58
表4-4風險態度與性別交叉分析表	59
表4-5風險態度與教育程度交叉分析表	60
表4-6風險態度與子女人數交叉分析表	61
表4-7風險態度與自用住宅交叉分析表	61
表4-8風險態度與健康狀況交叉分析表	62
表4-9屬量變數之分析表-背景變數(30歲家計單位)	64
表4-10屬量變數之分析表-背景變數(40歲家計單位)	65
表4-11屬量變數之分析表-背景變數(50歲家計單位)	65
表4-12屬量變數分析表-決策變數(30歲家計單位)	68
表4-13屬量變數分析表-決策變數(40歲家計單位)	69
表4-14屬量變數分析表-決策變數(50歲家計單位)	70
表4-15皮爾森相關係數分析表-背景變數(30歲家計單位)	72
表4-16皮爾森相關係數分析表-背景變數(40歲家計單位)	73
表4-17皮爾森相關係數分析表-背景變數(50歲家計單位)	74
表4-18皮爾森相關係數分析表-絕對風險趨避與決策變數(30歲家計單位)	75
表4-19皮爾森相關係數分析表-絕對風險趨避與決策變數(40歲家計單位)	76
表4-20皮爾森相關係數分析表-絕對風險趨避與決策變數(50歲家計單位)	77
表4-21皮爾森相關係數分析表-相對風險趨避與決策變數(30歲家計單位)	78
表4-22皮爾森相關係數分析表-相對風險趨避與決策變數(40歲家計單位)	79
表4-23皮爾森相關係數分析表-相對風險趨避與決策變數(50歲家計單位)	79
表4-24線性迴歸分析表-風險趨避與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	81
表4-25線性迴歸分析表-風險趨避與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	82
表4-26線性迴歸分析表-風險趨避與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	83
表4-27-1線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	85
表4-27-2線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	86
表4-28-1線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	88
表4-28-2線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	89
表4-29-1線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	91
表4-29-2線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(30歲家計單位)	92
表4-30-1線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	94
表4-30-2線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	95
表4-31-1線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	96
表4-31-2線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	97
表4-32-1線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	99
表4-32-2線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(40歲家計單位)	100
表4-33-1線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	101
表4-33-2線性迴歸分析表-退休前決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	102
表4-34-1線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	104
表4-34-2線性迴歸分析表-退休後決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	105
表4-35-1線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	106
表4-35-2線性迴歸分析表-全部期間決策變數與背景變數(50歲家計單位)	108
表4-36 線性迴歸分析彙總表(30歲家計單位)	110
表4-37 線性迴歸分析彙總表(40歲家計單位)	111
表4-38 線性迴歸分析彙總表(50歲家計單位)	111

一、英文部分
1.Ando, A. and Modigliani, F. (1957) 'Tests of the life-cycle hypothesis of savings: comments and suggestions', Bulletin of the Oxford Institute of Statistics 19: 99-124.
2.Ang, A. and Maddaloni, A. (2005) 'Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? evidence from international data', The Journal of Business 78(1)：341 -379.
3.Antolin, P. (2007) Longevity risk and private pensions, OECD working paper , Insurance and Private Pensions.
4.Bajtelsmit, V. L. and VanderHei, J. A. (1997) 'Risk aversion and retirement income adequacy', in Mitchell, O. S. (eds.) Positioning Pensions for the Year 2000, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, pp. 45-66.
5.Bakshi, G. S. and Chen, Z. (1994) 'Baby boom, population aging, and capital markets', Journal of Business 67 (2)：163-202.
6.Benzion, U. and Yagil, J. (2003) 'Portfolio composition choice: a behavioral approach', Journal of Behavioral Finance 4(2):85-95.
7.Bernheim, B. D., Skinner, J. and Weinberg, S. (2001) ' What accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among U.S. households? ', The American Economic Review 91(4): 832-857.
8.Blake, D., Waegenaere, A. D., MacMinn R. and Nijman T. (2009)Longevity risk and capital markets: the 2008-2009 update, working paper, the Pensions Institute, Cass Business School.
9.Brunetti, M.(2007) Population ageing, household portfolios and financial asset returns: A survey of the literature, CEFIN working paper.
10.Brzozowski, M. and Lu, Y. (2006) Home cooking, food consumption and food production among the unemployed and retired households, SEDAP research paper No. 151.
11.Carroll, C. D., Overland, J. and Weil, D. N. (2000) 'Saving and growth with habit formation', American Economic Review 90(3) 341-355.
12.Chang, C. C., DeVaney, S. A. and Chiremba, S. T. (2004) 'Determinants of subjective and objective risk tolerance', Journal of Personal Finance 3(3):53-67.
13.Cocco, J. F. and Gomes, F. J. (2009) Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation, working paper, London Business School.
14.Cordell, D. M. (2001) 'Investment advising in good times and bad ', Journal of Financial Services Professionals 55 (4):78-85.
15.Crawford, V. P. (2002) 'Introduction to experimental game theory ' Journal of Economic Theory 104:1-15.
16.Daly, M. and Wilson, M. (2001) ' Risk-taking, intrasexual competition, and homicide ', Nebraska Symposium on Motivation 47: 1-36.
17.Davidoff, T. (2009) ' Housing, health, and annuities', Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(1) :31-52.
18.DellaVigna, S. and Pollet, J. M. (2007) 'Demographics and industry returns ', The American Economic Review 97(5):1667-1702.
19.Edwards, R. D. (2008) 'Health risk and portfolio choice', Journal of Business and Economic statistics 26(4): 472-485.	
20.Eisenhauer, J. G. and Ventura, L. (2003) 'Survey measures of risk aversion and prudence', Applied Economics 35 (13)：1477-1484. 
21.Evans, J and Sherris, M. (2010) Longevity risk management and the development of a life annuity market in Australia, research paper, Australian School of Business.
22.Faff, R., Mulino, D. and Chai, D. (2008) 'On the linkage between financial risk tolerance and risk aversion', Journal of Financial Research 31(1)：1-23. 
23.Fehr, E., Fischbacher, U.,von Rosenbladt, B., Schupp, J. and Wagner, G. G. (2003) A nation-wide laboratory: examining trust and trustworthiness by integrating behavioral experiments into representative surveys, working paper, Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research CESifo.
24.Gilliam, J. E., Goetz, J. W. and Hampton, V. L. (2008) 'Spousal differences in financial risk tolerance', Financial Counseling and Planning 19(1): 3-11.
25.Goyal, A. (2004) 'Demographics, stock market flows, and stock returns', Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 39:115-142.
26.Guiso, L. and Paiella, M. (2008) 'Risk aversion, wealth, and background risk', Journal of the European Economic Association 6(6): 1109-1150.
27.Hamermesh, D. S.(1984) 'Consumption during retirement: the missing link in the life cycle', Review of Economics and Statistics 66：1–7.
28.Hanna, S. and Chen, P. (1997) ' Subjective and objective risk tolerance:
   implication for optimal portfolios', Financial Counseling and Planning 
8(2):17-26.
29.Harrison, G. W. and List, J. A. (2004) 'Field experiments', Journal of Economic Literature 42(4) 1013-1059. 
30.Hurst, E. (2008) The retirement of a consumption puzzle, NBER working paper No. 13789.
31.Jianakoplos, N. and Bernasek, A. (1998) ' Are women more risk averse? ', Economic Inquiry 36(4): 620 -630.
32.Jonathan, D. F. and Marchand, J. (2010) Does the retirement consumption puzzle differ across the distribution?, working paper.
33.Korniotis, G. and Kumar, A.(2007) Does investment skill decline due to cognitive aging or improve with experience?, working paper, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin.
34.Kosfeld, M. (2004) 'Economic networks in the laboratory: a survey', Review of Network Economics 3:20-42.
35.Levitt, S. D. and List, J. A. (2007) 'What do laboratory experiments measuring social preferences reveal about the real world?', Journal of Economic Perspectives 21(2): 153-174. 
36.Ludwig, A. and Slok, T. (2004) ' The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries', Topics in Macroeconomics 4(1):1-26.
37.MacMinn, R., Brockett, P. and Blake, D. (2006) 'Longevity risk and capital markets', The Journal of Risk and Insurance 73(4): 551-557.
38.Mark, A. and Hurst, E. (2009) Deconstructing lifecycle expenditure,
NBER working paper, No. 13893.
39.Mathieu, L. (2006) Population ageing and consumption demand in Belgium, CREPP working paper.
40.Mclnish, T. H., Ramaswami, S. N. and Srivastava, R. K.(1993) 'Do more risk‐averse investors have lower net worth and income?', The Financial Review 28 (1):91-106.
41.Messinis, G. (1999) ' Habit formation and the theory of addiction', Journal of Economic Surveys 13 (4):417-442.
42.Modigliani, F. and Brumberg, R.(1954) 'Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data', in Kenneth K. Kurihara (eds.) Post-Keynesian Economics, NJ :New Brunswick Rutgers University Press, pp. 388-436.
43.Modigliani, F. (1986) ' Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations ', American Economic Review 76：297-313.
44.Moreschi, R. W. (2005) 'An analysis of the ability of individuals to predict their own risk tolerance', Journal of Business & Economics Research 3(2)：39-48. 
45.Oeppen, J. and Vaupel, J. W.(2002) 'Broken limits to life expectancy', Science 296 : 1029-1031.
46.Pollak, R. A. (1970) ' Habit formation and dynamic demand functions', The Journal of Political Economy 78 (4):745-763.
47.Robbins, W. A. (1991) ' GASB Statement No.13：New Standards Capture the Economics of OPERATING leases with scheduled rent increases', The Government Accountants Journal 40:61. 
48.Roszkowski, M. J. (1998) 'Risk tolerance in financial decisions ', in Cordell, D. M.(eds.) Readings in Financial Planning, PA: The American College, pp. 281-328.
49.Smith, E. R. and Mackie, D. M. (2001) Social Psychology, NY:Worth Publishers.
50.Smith, V. L. (1989) 'Theory, experiment and economics', Journal of Economic Perspectives 3(1):151-169.
51.Smith, V. L. (1994) 'Economics in the laboratory', Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(1):113-131.
52.Stallard, E. (2006) 'Demographic issues in longevity risk analysis',The Journal of Risk and Insurance 73(4): 575-609.
53.Wang, H. and Hanna, S. (1997) 'Does risk tolerance decrease with age?', Financial Counseling and Planning 8(2): 27-32.
54.Watson, J. and McNaughton, M. (2007) 'Gender differences in risk aversion and expected retirement benefits', Financial Analysts Journal 63(4): 52-62.
55.Weber, E. U., Blais, A. R. and Betz, N.(2002)'A domain-specific risk-attitude scale: measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 15：263-290.
56.Yang, S. S. and Huang, H. C. (2009) 'The impact of longevity risk on the optimal contribution rate and asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans', The Geneva Papers 34: 660-681.
57.Yogo (2009) Portfolio choice in retirement: Health risk and the demand for annuities, housing, and risky assets, NBER working paper No. 15307.
58.Zweig, J. (2007) Inside the mind of the older investor, Money Magazine, NY, pp. 77-78.











二、中文部分
1.陳柏銘(2010)，「長壽風險與風險態度對家計單位消費及投資決策之影響」，淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士班碩士論文。
2.許維玲(2003)，「個人金融商品選擇模式之研究」，屏東科技大學企業管理系碩士班碩士論文。
3.彭素玲、郭迺鋒、周濟、方文秀(2009)，「人口年齡結構、所得分配與產業結構轉型對臺灣民間消費與總體產出之影響」，臺灣經濟預測與政策，中央研究院經濟研究所，第39卷，第2期，第51-101頁。
4.曾雅妮(2007)，「決策者風險態度下資產配置評選之研究-以國軍軍官為例」，國防決策科學研究所碩士論文。
5.曾義峰(2005)，「保證金準備與市場浮動性：以代理人為基礎之研究」，元智大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文。
6.楊佳蓉(2007)，「個人生命週期理財決策模型之研究」，銘傳大學財務金融學系碩士班碩士論文。
7.詹維玲(2009)，「臺灣生命循環消費與退休」，臺灣經濟預測與政策，中央研究院經濟研究所，第39卷，第2期，第129-157頁。
8.劉文全(2005)，「風險知覺、風險傾向影響飛機維修人為失誤因素之探討-個案研究」，中正大學勞工研究所碩士論文。

三、網站部分
1.內政部統計處網站，http://www.moi.gov.tw/，
最終瀏覽日期：2011年5月13日。
2.內政部戶政司網站，http://www.ris.gov.tw/ ，
最終瀏覽日期：2011年5月13日。  
3.內政部社會司網站，http://www.moi.gov.tw/dsa/，
最終瀏覽日期：2011年5月13日。