自從1950年代以來，出口帶動經濟成長的經濟發展策略，似乎已經成為經濟學的定論，許多實證研究亦證實此一結論。然而，1980年代以來多個新興工業化經濟體興起，加上學術界對於不完全競爭貿易理論的發展，在策略性貿易的主題下，似乎推翻了過去以自由貿易為背景下，出口帶動經濟發展的結論。實證經濟學再度利用新發展的計量經濟方法，探索出口對經濟成長影響的議題。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功。過去對於臺灣出口與經濟成長關係的研究，大都探討因果關係，而且結論也不一致，本文延續此一觀念，不再探討兩者之因果關係，而係檢視出口對經濟成長的貢獻。
本文以臺灣地區的經濟發展為中心，利用1970年到1997年這一段期間的統計資料，實證分析出口對臺灣經濟成長的貢獻。利用年資料估計一組聯立方程式模型，包括增列出口的擴大國民總生產函數、出口需求函數以及出口供給函數中的各參數值。為確實掌握各種估計方法的差異，分別採用普通最小平方法、二階段最小平方法以及三階段最小平方法，對實證模型的三個方程式進行統計估計。研究結果發現：(一)出口額變動率與總要素生產力成長率二項對經濟成長率的貢獻非常顯著，此一結果符合一般理論與實務上的預期；(二)勞工就業水準與資本形成變動率為促進經濟成長的第三重要原動力，惟三種方法所估得的結果並不一致；(三)比較出口需求與出口供給的兩個所得彈性值，國外所得彈性係數皆大於國內所得彈性係數，顯示臺灣出口商品對於世界經濟景氣的依賴度大於國內的經濟活動，證實臺灣經濟易受國外景氣變動之影響。

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data.  The 1970’s have witnessed an emerging consensus in favor of export promotion.  Analysis in depth of individual country experience has provided extensive support for export promotion as an effective development strategy.  
  However, such an advocacy for export oriented policies has not been immune from criticism.  Recently it has been argued that there are reasons for export pessimism.  The slowing down of economic activities in the industrialized countries implies that the trade engine is running out of fuel.  New trade theory has also contributed to the theoretical relationship between exports and growth regarding effects on technical efficiency.  In models of imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, this outcome is ambiguous.
  The purpose of this paper has been to examine the relationship between exports performance and economic growth in Taiwan using time series data for the period 1970-97.  Unlike other studies on this topic the present paper has examined the relationship in a simultaneous equation framework.  Following Khan and Saqib (1993) we specify an export augmented Cobb-Douglas production function, export demand and export supply functions simultaneously. The estimation techniques are ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares methods (2SLS) and three-stage least squares methods (3SLS).
  Similar to previous studies, this paper finds that the growth rate of exports and GDP growth rate are significantly and positively correlated.  It also shows that a strong association between growth rate of total factor productivities and GDP growth rate.  The foreign income elasticity of demand for exports is found to be much higher compared with the domestic income elasticity of supply for exports.  This finding indicates that Taiwan’s exports are more dependent on world rather than on domestic economic activity.

目錄
第一章	緒論……………………………………………………	1
  第一節 研究動機………………………………………………	1
  第二節	研究架構………………………………………………	3
第二章	文獻回顧………………………………………………	6
  第一節	理論上出口與經濟成長的關係………………………	6
  第二節	實證研究結果…………………………………………	10
  第三節	實證研究方法簡述……………………………………	17
  第四節	本文研究方法…………………………………………	22
第三章	實證模型與方法………………………………………	23
  第一節	實證模型………………………………………………	23
  第二節	實證方法………………………………………………	26
第四章	實證估計結果…………………………………………	35
  第一節	資料來源與說明………………………………………	35
  第二節	實證估計結果…………………………………………	36
  第三節	與其他研究臺灣地區相關文獻之比較………………	42
第五章	結論……………………………………………………	49
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………	52

表目錄
表一  出口與經濟成長關係文獻實證研究結果…………………	14
表二  出口與經濟成長關係文獻實證研究方法及變數…………	18
表三  OLS、2SLS、3SLS實證估計結果—採用變數的原始值…	46
表四  OLS、2SLS、3SLS實證估計結果—採用變數的差分值…	47
表五  臺灣地區實證研究相關文獻之比較………………………	48

Afxentiou PC, Serletis A (1991), “ Exports and GNP causality in the industrial countries 1950-1985”, Kyklos 44/2, pp.167-179.
Ahmad J, Kwan ACC(1991),  “Causality between exports and economic growth”, Economics Letters, vol. 37, pp.243-248.
A. Zellner and H. Theil (1962), “Three-stage, Least-squares: Simultaneous Estimation of Simultaneous Equations”, Econometrica, vol. 30, pp. 54-78.
Bahmani-Oskooee M, Mohtadi H, and Shabsigh G (1991), “ Exports, growth and causality in LDCs: A re-examination”, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 36, pp.405-415.
Bahmani-Oskooee M. and Alse J (1993),” Export growth and economic growth: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling”, Journal of Developing Areas, vol. 27(4).
Balassa, B., (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, June, pp.181-189.
Balassa, B., (1985), “Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock” , Journal of Development Economics, May-June, pp.23-35.
Balassa, B., Voloudakis Evangelos, Fylaktos, Panagiotis, and Suh, Suk Tai (1989), “The Determinants of Export Supply and Export Demand in Two Developing Countries: Greece and Korea”, International Economics Journal, Spring, pp.1-16.
Bhagwati, J. N., (1978), “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes”, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bhagwati, J. N., (1988), “Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence”, The World Bank Research Observer, January, pp27-57.
Chow, P.C.Y., (1987), “Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, June, pp.55-63.
Darrat AF (1987), ” Are exports an engine of growth? Another look at the evidence”, Applied Economics, vol. 19, pp.277-283.
Dodaro S (1993), “ Exports and growth: A reconsideration of causality”, Journal of Development Areas, vol. 27, pp.227-244.
Doyle, E., (2001), “Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997”, International Economic Journal, Vol.15, No.3, Autumn, pp.31-53.
Feder, G.., (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, February, pp.59-73.
Geweke J. (1984), “Measures of conditional linear dependence and feedback between time series”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79/388, pp. 907-915.
Ghartey EE (1993), “ Causal relationship between exports and economic growth: Some empirical evidence in Taiwan, Japan and the U.S.”, Applied Economics, vol. 25, pp.1145-1152.
Goldstein M. and Mohsin S. Khan(1978), “The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, May, pp. 275-286.
Grossman, G. M., and Helpman, E. (1991), “Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy”, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Hsiao C.(1979), “Autoregressive modelling of Canadian money and income data”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74, pp. 553-560.
Jung W. S. and P. J. Marshall, (1985), “Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries” , Journal of Development Economics, May-June, pp.1-12.
Kanamori(1968), “Economic Growth and Exports”, Chapter 10 in Lawrence R. Klein and Kazushi Ohkawa, eds., Economic Growth, Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin.
Kavoussi, R. M. (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, January-February, pp.241-250.
Keesing, D. B. (1967), “Outward-Looking Policies and Economic Development”, Economic Journal, June, pp. 303-320.
Khan, A. H. and N. Saqib, (1993), “Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan Experience”, International Economic Journal, Vol.7, No.3, Autumn, pp.53-64.
Krueger, A. (1978), “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Kugler P (1991), “ Growth exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 127(2), pp.73-81.
Kunst RM and Marin D (1989), “ On exports and productivity: a causal analysis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp.699-703
Lee, F. and W. Cole (1994), “Simultaneity in the Study of Exports and Economic Growth” , International Economic Journal, Summer , pp.33-40.
Marin D (1992),” Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for industrialized countries?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp.678-688.
Michaely, M. (1977), “Exports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, March, pp. 49-53.
Moscho, D., (1989), “Export Expansion, Growth and the Level of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, January, pp.93-101.
Nejib Hachicha, (2003), “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: A Simultaneous Error-correction Model for Tunisia”, International Economic Journal, Vol.17, No.1, Spring, pp.101-120.
Oxley L (1993), “ Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal,  1865-1985”, Economics Letters, vol. 43, pp.163-166.
Ram, R. (1987), “Export and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time Series and Cross Section Data”, Economic Development and Culture Change, January, pp.51-68.
Reizman, R. G.., C. H. Whiteman and P. M. Summers, (1996), “The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth”, Empirical Economics, vol. 21, pp.77-110.
Riedel, J. (1988),“The Demand for LDC Export of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong”, Economic Journal, June, pp.138-148.
Rivera-Batiz, L., and Romer, P. M. (1991), “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, pp.531-556.
Serletis A (1992), “ Export growth and Canadian economic development”, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 38, pp.133-145.
Shan, J. and F. Sun (1998),” On the export-led growth hypothesis: The econometric evidence from China”, Applied Economics, vol. 30, pp. 1055-1065.
Toda, H.Y. and T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 66, pp. 225-250. 
Tyler, W. G., (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, August, pp.121-130.
Ukpolo V (1994), “ Export composition and growth of selected low-income African countries: Evidence from time-series data”, Applied Economics, vol. 26, pp.445-449.
White H. (1980), “A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity”, Econometrica, vol. 48, pp. 817-838.