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中文論文名稱 臺灣地區出口與經濟成長:1970-1997
英文論文名稱 Exports and Economic Growth in Taiwan:1970-1997
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of International Trade
學年度 93
學期 2
出版年 94
研究生中文姓名 劉龍嫦
研究生英文姓名 Lung-Chang Liu
學號 791480071
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2005-05-27
論文頁數 55頁
口試委員 指導教授-賈昭南
委員-謝振寰
委員-吳秀玲
中文關鍵字 出口  經濟成長  普通最小平方法  二階段最小平方法  三階段最小平方法 
英文關鍵字 export  economic growth  ordinary least squares  two-stage least squares methods  three-stage least squares methods 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 自從1950年代以來,出口帶動經濟成長的經濟發展策略,似乎已經成為經濟學的定論,許多實證研究亦證實此一結論。然而,1980年代以來多個新興工業化經濟體興起,加上學術界對於不完全競爭貿易理論的發展,在策略性貿易的主題下,似乎推翻了過去以自由貿易為背景下,出口帶動經濟發展的結論。實證經濟學再度利用新發展的計量經濟方法,探索出口對經濟成長影響的議題。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功。過去對於臺灣出口與經濟成長關係的研究,大都探討因果關係,而且結論也不一致,本文延續此一觀念,不再探討兩者之因果關係,而係檢視出口對經濟成長的貢獻。
本文以臺灣地區的經濟發展為中心,利用1970年到1997年這一段期間的統計資料,實證分析出口對臺灣經濟成長的貢獻。利用年資料估計一組聯立方程式模型,包括增列出口的擴大國民總生產函數、出口需求函數以及出口供給函數中的各參數值。為確實掌握各種估計方法的差異,分別採用普通最小平方法、二階段最小平方法以及三階段最小平方法,對實證模型的三個方程式進行統計估計。研究結果發現:(一)出口額變動率與總要素生產力成長率二項對經濟成長率的貢獻非常顯著,此一結果符合一般理論與實務上的預期;(二)勞工就業水準與資本形成變動率為促進經濟成長的第三重要原動力,惟三種方法所估得的結果並不一致;(三)比較出口需求與出口供給的兩個所得彈性值,國外所得彈性係數皆大於國內所得彈性係數,顯示臺灣出口商品對於世界經濟景氣的依賴度大於國內的經濟活動,證實臺灣經濟易受國外景氣變動之影響。
英文摘要 The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. The 1970’s have witnessed an emerging consensus in favor of export promotion. Analysis in depth of individual country experience has provided extensive support for export promotion as an effective development strategy.
However, such an advocacy for export oriented policies has not been immune from criticism. Recently it has been argued that there are reasons for export pessimism. The slowing down of economic activities in the industrialized countries implies that the trade engine is running out of fuel. New trade theory has also contributed to the theoretical relationship between exports and growth regarding effects on technical efficiency. In models of imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, this outcome is ambiguous.
The purpose of this paper has been to examine the relationship between exports performance and economic growth in Taiwan using time series data for the period 1970-97. Unlike other studies on this topic the present paper has examined the relationship in a simultaneous equation framework. Following Khan and Saqib (1993) we specify an export augmented Cobb-Douglas production function, export demand and export supply functions simultaneously. The estimation techniques are ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares methods (2SLS) and three-stage least squares methods (3SLS).
Similar to previous studies, this paper finds that the growth rate of exports and GDP growth rate are significantly and positively correlated. It also shows that a strong association between growth rate of total factor productivities and GDP growth rate. The foreign income elasticity of demand for exports is found to be much higher compared with the domestic income elasticity of supply for exports. This finding indicates that Taiwan’s exports are more dependent on world rather than on domestic economic activity.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機……………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究架構……………………………………………… 3
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………… 6
第一節 理論上出口與經濟成長的關係……………………… 6
第二節 實證研究結果………………………………………… 10
第三節 實證研究方法簡述…………………………………… 17
第四節 本文研究方法………………………………………… 22
第三章 實證模型與方法……………………………………… 23
第一節 實證模型……………………………………………… 23
第二節 實證方法……………………………………………… 26
第四章 實證估計結果………………………………………… 35
第一節 資料來源與說明……………………………………… 35
第二節 實證估計結果………………………………………… 36
第三節 與其他研究臺灣地區相關文獻之比較……………… 42
第五章 結論…………………………………………………… 49
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………… 52

表目錄
表一 出口與經濟成長關係文獻實證研究結果………………… 14
表二 出口與經濟成長關係文獻實證研究方法及變數………… 18
表三 OLS、2SLS、3SLS實證估計結果—採用變數的原始值… 46
表四 OLS、2SLS、3SLS實證估計結果—採用變數的差分值… 47
表五 臺灣地區實證研究相關文獻之比較……………………… 48

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