太平洋島嶼地區，又稱為南太平洋或是西南太平洋, 是一個具有日益成長的地緣政治、經濟強盛，以及環境議題的一個區域。 太平洋島嶼地區由 14 個獨立主權國家以及 8 個具有不同治理經歷的領土所組成，人口總數大約為一千萬人。在過去的十年間，此地區已成為舊有權利以及新興權力疊加的策略重區。 南太平洋地緣政治系統的迅速發展特點在於新的國際政治選擇、系統中行動者，以及媒介之間的協同作用，而此協同作用使區域秩序產生轉變；特別是該地區吸引了中國日益增長的外交與經濟參與，而中國在傳統地區之權利影響的淺在競爭對手為澳洲、紐西蘭、美國等西方國家，這些淺在競爭對手在南太平洋區域投資了多重的安全與經濟政策措施，並且提供主要的雙邊地區之外援。中國日漸增廣的影響力使得政府、國際組織，以及研究學者對亞太關係或更甚於亞太關係之事務的關注日漸增長，而這些學者擔憂中國日日增長的活躍會使得其對於亞太關係中成為競爭或主導的可能性。為了學術需要，本論文研究中國在太平洋島嶼地區之地位與影響的相關議題。本論文探討中國與太平洋島嶼國家之間的關係以及地區性的多方機構；同時也探討中國與長期區域強權主義者與和其他外部行為者在影響力上的互動與競爭。本研究中分析的部分包含中國近期與長期以來於太平洋島嶼國家中的戰略意義，以及其相應的發展、政治陳述，以及其模式變化。因此，研究途徑包含數章節討論中國參與太平洋島嶼事務的動機與戰略目的，中國與澳洲、紐西蘭關係之動態、中國與台灣的外交較勁、中國對太平洋島嶼地區之對外援助與投資、中國的區域見解以及北京的軟實力、中國所代表的政體、與中國軍隊意外衝突的風險、中國區域社會化以及與中國建設性外交。本論文根據社會結構主義之理論分析所得結論，中國的區域整合受限於多重身分與異律行為；外交與經濟成長、具有影響力的資產與合夥關係決定了包含北京在內的利益關係者，其制度戰略將中國社會化向區域系統推進。相對的，遏制且得失所系的立場僅是有害而無一利的。

The Pacific Islands Region (PIR), also known as the South Pacific or Southwest Pacific, is an area of increasing geopolitical relevance, economic significance and environmental concern. It comprises 14 sovereign states and 8 territories with varied histories of governance populated by approximately 10 million people. Over the last decade, it has become a strategically important region where the interests and ambitions of established and rising powers intersect and superimpose. The rapidly evolving South Pacific geopolitical ecosystem - characterized by synergies among new international politics options, actors and vectors - is generating shifts in the regional order. In particular, the region has attracted growing diplomatic and economic engagement from China, a potential competitor to the influence of the traditional regional powers: Australia, New Zealand, US and other Western-aligned states, which have a complex set of security and economic interests invested in the region, and provide the bulk of bilateral and regional foreign assistance. China’s expanding regional footprint is effecting a change in the level of attention paid to the Pacific Islands by governments, international organizations and analysts within and beyond Asia-Pacific, which are preoccupied with the possibility of China’s growing regional activism producing destabilizing consequences in terms of competition and governance. For the sake of scholarly inquiry, this dissertation investigates issues related to China’s presence and influence in the PIR. It discusses China’s relations with Pacific Island countries and the regional multilateral agencies, as well as its interaction and competition for influence with the long-time regional hegemons and other external actors. Specifically, the analysis conducted in this study assesses the current and long-term strategic implications of China’s embedding in the region, and examines the corresponding scenarios, political narratives and paradigm changes. Accordingly, the avenues of analysis include chapters and sections on the drivers and strategic aims of China’s involvement, the dynamics of China’s relations with Australia and New Zealand, China’s diplomatic rivalry with Taiwan, Chinese foreign assistance to and investments in the region, regional perceptions of China and Beijing’s soft-power, regimes of representation of China, the risk of accidental friction with the Chinese military, China’s regional socialization and ambits for constructive engagement with China. The conclusion draws from the social constructivist approach upon which the dissertation is predicated. In the light of its theoretical prism, the analysis concludes that, while China’s regional integration remains limited due to its multi-faceted identities and heteronomy of behavior, China’s diplomatic and economic inroads, influential asset and partnership role dictate that regional stakeholders, including Beijing, devise strategies to incrementally further the socialization of China into the regional system. By contrast, a containment, zero-sum, posture would only be pernicious.

Acknowledgements										i
Abstract                                                                                                        	             	iii
List of Tables, Maps and Figures 								xii 
List of Acronyms										xiv
Chapter I - Introducing the Pacific Islands Region
I.1 The Pacific Islands Region 								1
I.2. “A Sea of Islands”: Pacific Insularity							10
2.1. Insularity and asymmetry								10
2.2 Vulnerability and geopolitical porosity							16
I.3. A Region of Islands: The Origins of Regional Identity				21
3.1. Defining a region									21
3.2 Choosing inclusiveness 									28
I.4. Changing Currents: The Evolving Regional Order					35
4.1 The Security Factor									35
4.2 “Only trails across the sea”								40
4.3 Outward projection in a globalized world						46
I.5 Conclusion										50
Chapter II - Literature Review, Theory and Methodology			
II.1. Introduction: The dissertation blueprint						53
II.2 Purpose of the study									54
2.1 Motivations										54
2.2 Goals											56
II.3 Literature review									59
3.1 PIR regional order									60
3.2 China (and Taiwan) in the Pacific Islands						61
3.3 Theoretical Sources									64
II.4 Research design 										67
4.1.1 Research question and hypotheses							67
4.2 Scope and Limitations									68
II.5 Theoretical background									70
5.1 Theoretical background									70
II.6 Research approach and method							73
6.1 Research approach									73
6.2 The ‘Moebius Strip’ model								79
II.6 Analytical framework									83
6.1 Rivalry; coexistence; synergy								83
6.2 Synergistic constructivism								88
II.7 Dissertation structure									88
II.8 Conclusion										92
Chapter III - When a Strait is an Ocean: China and Taiwan’s Pacific Island Crossing
III.1. Introduction										93
III.2. Cross-Strait relations: a panoramic view						94
2.1 A complicated relationship								94
2.2 Cross-Strait evolution: boundaries and bridges						98
2.3 Uncertain future and persisting triangle							102
III.3 Tracing the Path of the Cross-Strait Diplomatic Rivalry in the PIR		106
3.1 The Making of a Diplomatic Battleground						106
3.2 Wooing the Islands									114
3.3 The Cross-Strait thaw: from rivalry to détente						119
III.4 The PICs: Cross-Strait rivalry managers?						120
4.1 Diplomatic recognition as a commodity							120
4.2 Surfing the Cross-Strait rivalry: extracting aid						124
III.5 PIR Cross-Strait dynamics and Australia						128
5.1 Reacting to the ‘intrusion’								128
5.2 Toward a new perception									134
III.6 Conclusions										136
Chapter IV - The Dragon, the Kangaroo, and the Kiwi: New PIR Equilibria 
IV.1 Introduction										138
1.1 Australia and New Zealand’s regional interests						138
IV.2 Concerns over China’s regional rise							143
2.1 “Canberra, Wellington, we have a problem”						143
2.2 The Chinese complication								146
IV.3 Coming to terms with Pacific China   							150
3.1 China: Influent but soft-powerless							150
3.2 Of men and states										153
IV.4 Assessing China’s comprehensive security impact in the PIR 			157
4.1 Comprehensive security									157
4.2 China’s diplomatic waves and ripples  							158
4.2 China’s identity declensions								162
4.3 China’s military dimension								164
IV.4.4 China’s economic impact								167
IV.5 : The interests of the Pacific Islands							172
5.1 Navigating the Chinese current								172
5.2: A New Regional Order?									174
IV.6 Prospects for Sino-Australian-NZ cooperation in the PIR				177
6.1 Working with the Dragon									177
6.2 Policy Recommendations									180
IV.7 Conclusion										181
Chapter V - China’s Aid to the Pacific Islands: A Constructivist View
V.1. Introduction										185
V.2. Using constructivism for understanding China’s foreign aid			190
2.1 Constructivism as an analytical framework						190
V.3. Formation of Chinese foreign aid approach						195
3.1 Historical background: three stages							195
V.4. Trajectories of Identity and Norms in China’s Foreign Relations Since 1949	202
4.1 The Three core norms									202
4.2 Aid volume										209
V.5. Institutionalization of aid norms and types						211
5.1 Operational structure   									211
5.2 Aid Conditionality (?)									216
V.6. China’s bilateral aid to the PICs							219
6.1 Rising China, raising aid									219
6.2 “Our aid, our ways”									223
6.3 Security outlook  limitations								227
V.7. Chinese bilateral aid programs: five case studies					229
7.1 Fiji												230
7.2 How does China give aid to Fiji?							234
7.3 The Cook Islands										240
7.4 Tonga											243
7.5 Samoa											246
7.6 Vanuatu											249
7.7 Discussion											251
V.8. Conclusion										255
Chapter VI - Beyond the ‘Bad Dragon’ Narrative and toward Constructive Engagement 
VI.1. Introduction										258
VI.2. Representing and misrepresenting China in the Pacific Islands			260
2.1 Creating a ‘regime of representation’							260
2.2 Breaking the ‘China threat’ spell							264
VI.3 ‘China is China’: coming to terms with reality					267
3.1 China’s ‘bad aid’ narrative								267
3.2 Chinese trade and investment: bad for the region?					271
3.3 Diplomatic and military ties: inconvenient for whom?					273
3.4 Cross-Strait dynamics: ‘scary’ no more							276
VI.4 China as an ‘accidental’ security problem						279
4.1 Accidental friction									279
4.2 Making some ‘strategic sense’ of China in the PIR					281
4.3 Taking it constructively: the engagement school					285
VI.5 Accidental friction with China in the PIR						288
5.1 Accidental friction: a potential risk							288
5.2 When: evacuation operations								292
5.3. Where: Melanesia (PNG)								295
5.4 Avoiding accidental friction								299
VI.6 Conclusion										302
Chapter VII: Conclusions
VII.1 Integrated analytics: description, prediction and prescription			304
1.1 Answering three questions 								304
VII.2 Description										305
2.1 China in the PIR: identity declensions							305
2.2 The ‘China effect’: the PICs and the traditional powers				309
VII.3 Prediction										312
3.1 Exploring China-South Pacific possibilities						312
3.2 VII.3.2 A region in flux. A region to consolidate						316
VII.4 Prescription										320
VII.4.1 Advising futures: a team approach to the Pacific					320
VII.4.2 Policy recommendations								323
VII.4.3 Answering the questions: research findings						329
VII.5 Denouement										332
Bibliography									    	334-435






List of Tables, Maps and Figures
Map I.1 The Pacific Islands Region								2
Table I.1 Status of the Pacific Island states and territories according 
to international law									3
Table I.2 Pacific Island Countries								4
Table I.3 Projections of Pacific Island populations in 2015 and 2050			6
Map I.2 Ethnographic Map of the Pacific Islands						13
Table I.4 Pacific Islands Land and Ocean Areas						15
Table I.5 Pacific Regionalism in the Framework for Pacific Regionalism			45
Table II.1 Methodological Outlook of the Dissertation					54
Table II.2 Sources Categorization								60
Figure II.2 The Research Wheel								74
Figure II.3 Deductive (Confirmatory) Approach						76
Figure II.4 Inductive (Exploratory) Approach						76
Table II.3 Differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Research			77
Table II.4 The Quantitative and Qualitative Researcher					79
Image II.1 The ‘Moebius Strip’ Model							80
Image II.1 Rivalry as a ‘zero-sum’ game							85
Figure II.1 The Coexistence Continuum							86
Image II. XX The Synergistic Effect								87
Image III.1 Taiwan (ROC) / PRC Diplomatic Divide in the PIR 				108
Image III.2 The PICs’ Diachronic Shift of Diplomatic Allegiance 				108
Image III.3 Taiwan (ROC)’s ‘Diplomatic Allies’ in the PIR				109
Image III.4 PRC’s ‘Diplomatic Allies’ in the PIR						109
Image V.1. Interaction of Domestic Political Forces based on
Lancaster (2007a)									187
Image V.2 Simplified representation of the interaction between 
domestic and other members of the international system				189
Table V.I Stages of China’s Relations with the International System			195
Table V.II Perceived level of PRC coordinating with other donors				225
Table V.III The methods and fields of PRC Aid to Fiji					237
Table VII.I Policy Recommendations (for China, PICs, Western Powers) 			329

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