||Ocean Dragon: China in the Pacific Islands Region - Implications, New Equilibria and Synergies
||Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
Pacific Islands Region
||太平洋島嶼地區，又稱為南太平洋或是西南太平洋, 是一個具有日益成長的地緣政治、經濟強盛，以及環境議題的一個區域。 太平洋島嶼地區由 14 個獨立主權國家以及 8 個具有不同治理經歷的領土所組成，人口總數大約為一千萬人。在過去的十年間，此地區已成為舊有權利以及新興權力疊加的策略重區。 南太平洋地緣政治系統的迅速發展特點在於新的國際政治選擇、系統中行動者，以及媒介之間的協同作用，而此協同作用使區域秩序產生轉變；特別是該地區吸引了中國日益增長的外交與經濟參與，而中國在傳統地區之權利影響的淺在競爭對手為澳洲、紐西蘭、美國等西方國家，這些淺在競爭對手在南太平洋區域投資了多重的安全與經濟政策措施，並且提供主要的雙邊地區之外援。中國日漸增廣的影響力使得政府、國際組織，以及研究學者對亞太關係或更甚於亞太關係之事務的關注日漸增長，而這些學者擔憂中國日日增長的活躍會使得其對於亞太關係中成為競爭或主導的可能性。為了學術需要，本論文研究中國在太平洋島嶼地區之地位與影響的相關議題。本論文探討中國與太平洋島嶼國家之間的關係以及地區性的多方機構；同時也探討中國與長期區域強權主義者與和其他外部行為者在影響力上的互動與競爭。本研究中分析的部分包含中國近期與長期以來於太平洋島嶼國家中的戰略意義，以及其相應的發展、政治陳述，以及其模式變化。因此，研究途徑包含數章節討論中國參與太平洋島嶼事務的動機與戰略目的，中國與澳洲、紐西蘭關係之動態、中國與台灣的外交較勁、中國對太平洋島嶼地區之對外援助與投資、中國的區域見解以及北京的軟實力、中國所代表的政體、與中國軍隊意外衝突的風險、中國區域社會化以及與中國建設性外交。本論文根據社會結構主義之理論分析所得結論，中國的區域整合受限於多重身分與異律行為；外交與經濟成長、具有影響力的資產與合夥關係決定了包含北京在內的利益關係者，其制度戰略將中國社會化向區域系統推進。相對的，遏制且得失所系的立場僅是有害而無一利的。
||The Pacific Islands Region (PIR), also known as the South Pacific or Southwest Pacific, is an area of increasing geopolitical relevance, economic significance and environmental concern. It comprises 14 sovereign states and 8 territories with varied histories of governance populated by approximately 10 million people. Over the last decade, it has become a strategically important region where the interests and ambitions of established and rising powers intersect and superimpose. The rapidly evolving South Pacific geopolitical ecosystem - characterized by synergies among new international politics options, actors and vectors - is generating shifts in the regional order. In particular, the region has attracted growing diplomatic and economic engagement from China, a potential competitor to the influence of the traditional regional powers: Australia, New Zealand, US and other Western-aligned states, which have a complex set of security and economic interests invested in the region, and provide the bulk of bilateral and regional foreign assistance. China’s expanding regional footprint is effecting a change in the level of attention paid to the Pacific Islands by governments, international organizations and analysts within and beyond Asia-Pacific, which are preoccupied with the possibility of China’s growing regional activism producing destabilizing consequences in terms of competition and governance. For the sake of scholarly inquiry, this dissertation investigates issues related to China’s presence and influence in the PIR. It discusses China’s relations with Pacific Island countries and the regional multilateral agencies, as well as its interaction and competition for influence with the long-time regional hegemons and other external actors. Specifically, the analysis conducted in this study assesses the current and long-term strategic implications of China’s embedding in the region, and examines the corresponding scenarios, political narratives and paradigm changes. Accordingly, the avenues of analysis include chapters and sections on the drivers and strategic aims of China’s involvement, the dynamics of China’s relations with Australia and New Zealand, China’s diplomatic rivalry with Taiwan, Chinese foreign assistance to and investments in the region, regional perceptions of China and Beijing’s soft-power, regimes of representation of China, the risk of accidental friction with the Chinese military, China’s regional socialization and ambits for constructive engagement with China. The conclusion draws from the social constructivist approach upon which the dissertation is predicated. In the light of its theoretical prism, the analysis concludes that, while China’s regional integration remains limited due to its multi-faceted identities and heteronomy of behavior, China’s diplomatic and economic inroads, influential asset and partnership role dictate that regional stakeholders, including Beijing, devise strategies to incrementally further the socialization of China into the regional system. By contrast, a containment, zero-sum, posture would only be pernicious.
List of Tables, Maps and Figures xii
List of Acronyms xiv
Chapter I - Introducing the Pacific Islands Region
I.1 The Pacific Islands Region 1
I.2. “A Sea of Islands”: Pacific Insularity 10
2.1. Insularity and asymmetry 10
2.2 Vulnerability and geopolitical porosity 16
I.3. A Region of Islands: The Origins of Regional Identity 21
3.1. Defining a region 21
3.2 Choosing inclusiveness 28
I.4. Changing Currents: The Evolving Regional Order 35
4.1 The Security Factor 35
4.2 “Only trails across the sea” 40
4.3 Outward projection in a globalized world 46
I.5 Conclusion 50
Chapter II - Literature Review, Theory and Methodology
II.1. Introduction: The dissertation blueprint 53
II.2 Purpose of the study 54
2.1 Motivations 54
2.2 Goals 56
II.3 Literature review 59
3.1 PIR regional order 60
3.2 China (and Taiwan) in the Pacific Islands 61
3.3 Theoretical Sources 64
II.4 Research design 67
4.1.1 Research question and hypotheses 67
4.2 Scope and Limitations 68
II.5 Theoretical background 70
5.1 Theoretical background 70
II.6 Research approach and method 73
6.1 Research approach 73
6.2 The ‘Moebius Strip’ model 79
II.6 Analytical framework 83
6.1 Rivalry; coexistence; synergy 83
6.2 Synergistic constructivism 88
II.7 Dissertation structure 88
II.8 Conclusion 92
Chapter III - When a Strait is an Ocean: China and Taiwan’s Pacific Island Crossing
III.1. Introduction 93
III.2. Cross-Strait relations: a panoramic view 94
2.1 A complicated relationship 94
2.2 Cross-Strait evolution: boundaries and bridges 98
2.3 Uncertain future and persisting triangle 102
III.3 Tracing the Path of the Cross-Strait Diplomatic Rivalry in the PIR 106
3.1 The Making of a Diplomatic Battleground 106
3.2 Wooing the Islands 114
3.3 The Cross-Strait thaw: from rivalry to détente 119
III.4 The PICs: Cross-Strait rivalry managers? 120
4.1 Diplomatic recognition as a commodity 120
4.2 Surfing the Cross-Strait rivalry: extracting aid 124
III.5 PIR Cross-Strait dynamics and Australia 128
5.1 Reacting to the ‘intrusion’ 128
5.2 Toward a new perception 134
III.6 Conclusions 136
Chapter IV - The Dragon, the Kangaroo, and the Kiwi: New PIR Equilibria
IV.1 Introduction 138
1.1 Australia and New Zealand’s regional interests 138
IV.2 Concerns over China’s regional rise 143
2.1 “Canberra, Wellington, we have a problem” 143
2.2 The Chinese complication 146
IV.3 Coming to terms with Pacific China 150
3.1 China: Influent but soft-powerless 150
3.2 Of men and states 153
IV.4 Assessing China’s comprehensive security impact in the PIR 157
4.1 Comprehensive security 157
4.2 China’s diplomatic waves and ripples 158
4.2 China’s identity declensions 162
4.3 China’s military dimension 164
IV.4.4 China’s economic impact 167
IV.5 : The interests of the Pacific Islands 172
5.1 Navigating the Chinese current 172
5.2: A New Regional Order? 174
IV.6 Prospects for Sino-Australian-NZ cooperation in the PIR 177
6.1 Working with the Dragon 177
6.2 Policy Recommendations 180
IV.7 Conclusion 181
Chapter V - China’s Aid to the Pacific Islands: A Constructivist View
V.1. Introduction 185
V.2. Using constructivism for understanding China’s foreign aid 190
2.1 Constructivism as an analytical framework 190
V.3. Formation of Chinese foreign aid approach 195
3.1 Historical background: three stages 195
V.4. Trajectories of Identity and Norms in China’s Foreign Relations Since 1949 202
4.1 The Three core norms 202
4.2 Aid volume 209
V.5. Institutionalization of aid norms and types 211
5.1 Operational structure 211
5.2 Aid Conditionality (?) 216
V.6. China’s bilateral aid to the PICs 219
6.1 Rising China, raising aid 219
6.2 “Our aid, our ways” 223
6.3 Security outlook limitations 227
V.7. Chinese bilateral aid programs: five case studies 229
7.1 Fiji 230
7.2 How does China give aid to Fiji? 234
7.3 The Cook Islands 240
7.4 Tonga 243
7.5 Samoa 246
7.6 Vanuatu 249
7.7 Discussion 251
V.8. Conclusion 255
Chapter VI - Beyond the ‘Bad Dragon’ Narrative and toward Constructive Engagement
VI.1. Introduction 258
VI.2. Representing and misrepresenting China in the Pacific Islands 260
2.1 Creating a ‘regime of representation’ 260
2.2 Breaking the ‘China threat’ spell 264
VI.3 ‘China is China’: coming to terms with reality 267
3.1 China’s ‘bad aid’ narrative 267
3.2 Chinese trade and investment: bad for the region? 271
3.3 Diplomatic and military ties: inconvenient for whom? 273
3.4 Cross-Strait dynamics: ‘scary’ no more 276
VI.4 China as an ‘accidental’ security problem 279
4.1 Accidental friction 279
4.2 Making some ‘strategic sense’ of China in the PIR 281
4.3 Taking it constructively: the engagement school 285
VI.5 Accidental friction with China in the PIR 288
5.1 Accidental friction: a potential risk 288
5.2 When: evacuation operations 292
5.3. Where: Melanesia (PNG) 295
5.4 Avoiding accidental friction 299
VI.6 Conclusion 302
Chapter VII: Conclusions
VII.1 Integrated analytics: description, prediction and prescription 304
1.1 Answering three questions 304
VII.2 Description 305
2.1 China in the PIR: identity declensions 305
2.2 The ‘China effect’: the PICs and the traditional powers 309
VII.3 Prediction 312
3.1 Exploring China-South Pacific possibilities 312
3.2 VII.3.2 A region in flux. A region to consolidate 316
VII.4 Prescription 320
VII.4.1 Advising futures: a team approach to the Pacific 320
VII.4.2 Policy recommendations 323
VII.4.3 Answering the questions: research findings 329
VII.5 Denouement 332
List of Tables, Maps and Figures
Map I.1 The Pacific Islands Region 2
Table I.1 Status of the Pacific Island states and territories according
to international law 3
Table I.2 Pacific Island Countries 4
Table I.3 Projections of Pacific Island populations in 2015 and 2050 6
Map I.2 Ethnographic Map of the Pacific Islands 13
Table I.4 Pacific Islands Land and Ocean Areas 15
Table I.5 Pacific Regionalism in the Framework for Pacific Regionalism 45
Table II.1 Methodological Outlook of the Dissertation 54
Table II.2 Sources Categorization 60
Figure II.2 The Research Wheel 74
Figure II.3 Deductive (Confirmatory) Approach 76
Figure II.4 Inductive (Exploratory) Approach 76
Table II.3 Differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Research 77
Table II.4 The Quantitative and Qualitative Researcher 79
Image II.1 The ‘Moebius Strip’ Model 80
Image II.1 Rivalry as a ‘zero-sum’ game 85
Figure II.1 The Coexistence Continuum 86
Image II. XX The Synergistic Effect 87
Image III.1 Taiwan (ROC) / PRC Diplomatic Divide in the PIR 108
Image III.2 The PICs’ Diachronic Shift of Diplomatic Allegiance 108
Image III.3 Taiwan (ROC)’s ‘Diplomatic Allies’ in the PIR 109
Image III.4 PRC’s ‘Diplomatic Allies’ in the PIR 109
Image V.1. Interaction of Domestic Political Forces based on
Lancaster (2007a) 187
Image V.2 Simplified representation of the interaction between
domestic and other members of the international system 189
Table V.I Stages of China’s Relations with the International System 195
Table V.II Perceived level of PRC coordinating with other donors 225
Table V.III The methods and fields of PRC Aid to Fiji 237
Table VII.I Policy Recommendations (for China, PICs, Western Powers) 329
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