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系統識別號 U0002-2706201311552900
中文論文名稱 巴拿馬運河擴建工程對巴拿馬與臺灣經濟關係的影響
英文論文名稱 THE IMPACT OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION PROJECT ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND ROC (TAIWAN)
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生中文姓名 孫艾文
研究生英文姓名 ELVINS KELSINS SANTANDER CEDENO
學號 600330426
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2013-06-21
論文頁數 145頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃任佑
委員-翁明賢
委員-格拉伊
中文關鍵字 經濟關係  雙邊合作  貿易  經濟影響 
英文關鍵字 Economic Relationship  Bilateral Cooperation  Trade  Economic Impact 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本論文以通過巴拿馬公投的巴拿馬運河第三套船閘擴建計畫為研究主題。
海運界已準備迎接二十一世紀全球經濟耀眼之星的巴拿馬運河擴建完工,該運河獲得2013年阿斯圖里亞斯親王獎(The Prince of Asturias Award 2013)提名且譽為世界七大工程奇蹟之一。本研究的方法論採用一般系統(General System Theory)法。
第一章闡釋本研究大綱及假設目標,礙於研究資料來源甚少,許多相關研究也尚未完成,本章將略提重要著作做為本研究的論點。同時,此論文為分析式探討,並加入個人觀點,此外,為延續脈絡及引導結論,本章中的方法論為後續章節之基礎。
第二章將探討巴拿馬運河之背景,以5W1H分析法針對巴拿馬運河擴建計畫來研究,5W1H包括:人(Who)、事(What)、時(When)、地(Where)、為何(Why)、如何(How)。本章也將提及中華民國與巴拿馬的經濟關係,並評估兩國間的自由貿易協定,也將探討兩國如何透過經貿、外交及經濟貢獻,來維持外交關係的方式,以供他國做為參考。
第三章著墨於台巴兩國經濟的直接關係,分析此擴建計畫對全球市場及競爭力的影響,來引導出本研究的第一個結論。此外,運用PEST分析法,從政治、經濟、社會、科技的角度,探討巴拿馬運河擴建計畫;以SWOT分析法,以優勢、劣勢、機會、威脅,探討台巴兩國的外交關係。
第四章為最複雜的章節,本章運用Michael Porter所提出的鑽石模型理論(Diamond model theory)分析競爭優勢。透過此理論,了解全球競爭下國家的比較地位。該理論可應用於國家或地域做地理區域研究,因此本章研究巴拿馬及該擴建計畫,也運用前述章節運用的正反觀點分析引導出結論。
最末章結論印證巴拿馬運河擴建為可行計畫,因擴建後可增加台巴兩國間的經濟利益。
本研究包含許多參考資料及相關面談記錄作為附件,面談記錄包括中華民國外交部柯政務次長森耀,第三套船閘擴建計畫的巴拿馬工程團隊土木工程師Gilberto Cedeno及巴拿馬大學知名巴拿馬經濟教授Jose Luis Solis。
英文摘要 This research is based mainly on the expansion project of the Panama Canal and its third set of locks, from the beginning when it was approved by a large majority in a national Referendum in the Republic of Panama.
The maritime world is preparing to welcome one of the most important works of the XXI century which is now in the sights of all economic sectors in the world, nowdays competes to be the Prince of Asturias Award 2013 and it is considered one of the 7 modern marvels.
In the first chapter I will speak of the foundation of this thesis, the objectives with their respective hypotheses, it should be mentioned that within this chapter I will allude to the most important books used as it is an argument, because there is not much information and material as the project studied have not finished yet, at the same time this research is an analytical research with a new visual approach from my point of view. At the same time I will use in the same chapter the main methodologies used to perform the next chapters, so we can follow a shape and get the results from itself.
In the second chapter I will do a general background based in the Panama Canal, all of my questions are based on the method 5W + 1H that is no more than what, where, who, when, why, and how questions; all based on the expansion project of the Panama Canal, later in the same chapter I will explain the background of the economic relationship between Panama and the ROC (Taiwan) and make important evaluations of the Free Trade Agreement between the two nations, I will also talk about the trade and economic relations, diplomatic and economic contributions that both nations realize to maintain diplomatic relationship as an example for other nations.
In Chapter III, we see the direct relation between the economies of both nations and I will analyze the project in the global market and competitiveness, in order to start finding the first results of this investigation taking a look in both economies. On the other side I will make some studies based on two theories, the PEST is the analysis of the political, economic, social and technological areas of the mega project extension in the canal; the second theory is the SWOT that analyzes opportunities, weaknesses, strengths and threats that affect with implications on this diplomatic relation between both nations.
In Chapter IV, which I consider more complex than the ones above, I use a theory called the Diamond model theory by Michael Porter in order to get some competitive advantages, it is a model that can help to understand the comparative position of a nation in the global competition. This model can be used to study geographical regions within a country or territory, and in this case we study Panama and also the mega project of the extension , we also have positive and negative aspects to analyze the same way as in the previous chapter I am going to get some important subconclusiones.
Finally in Chapter V we give our conclusions of this research with their respective recommendations to sustain the canal expansion project as a feasible project which will contribute benefits to both economies Panama and ROC (Taiwan).
It should be noted that my research is rich in bibliography and attachments such as interviews with senior officials of the ROC (Taiwan) such as Excellency Mr. Simon Ko, at the other side of the Republic of Panama I have Mr. Gilberto Cedeno in charge of a section of the project of extension of the Canal in the third sets of locks and also the renowned Panamenian economist of the University of Panama Prof. Jose Luis Solis.
論文目次 ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………...I
I.PREFACE...................................................................................................................V
II.INDEX…………………………………………………………………………..VII
III.TABLE INDEX………………………………………………………………....... X
IV.CONTENT……………………………………………………………………...…1
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………...……..1
1. RESEARCH MOTIVES AND OBJETIVES……………………………1
2. HYPOTHESIS, LITERATURE REVIEW, METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH STRUCTURE……………………………...................................................................2
3. EXPECTED CONSTRIBUTIONS AND RESEARCH LIMITATIONS……….....10

CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND OF “THE PROJECT” AND THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND ROC (TAIWAN)…………..………12
1. BACKGROUND OF “THE PROJECT” –A DESCRIPTION ON BASIS OF THE 5W+1H METHOD…………………………….....................................................12
1.1 Why to do “The Project”………………………………………………….…….13
1.2 When began “The Project” ……………………………........................................18
1.3 What’s the content of “The Project”………………………………….………….20
1.4 Who are in charge of “The Project………………………………….……...…….27
1.5” Where to do “The Project” …………………………………..………....28
1.6 How much the cost of do “The Project” …….………………………………29
2. THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND ROC ( TAIWAN) ………………………………………………………..………..……. 34
2.1 The bilateral trade ………………………………………………………….…….34
2.2 The bilateral investments ………………………………………………………...40
2.3 Other cooperations …………………………………………….………………...44

CHAPTER 3 “THE PROJECT” IN THE GLOBALIZATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND ROC (TAIWAN)…………………………………………..…………………...47
1. “THE PROJECT” IN THE GLOBALIZACION--AN ANALYSIS BY PEST METHOD…………………………………………………………………………….47
1.1 The Political aspect…….……………………………………………….………..49
1.2 The Economic aspect…..………………………………………….……….…….51
1.3 The Social aspect ….………………………………………………………..……53
1.4 The Techonological aspect..………………….………………………………..…57
2. IMPLICATIONS ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND TAIWAN – AN ANALYSIS BY SWOT METHOD…………………….…….62
2.1 Strengths ………………………………………………………..…………..……62
2.2 Weaknesses…………………………..…………………………………….…….64
2.3Oportunities………………………………………………………………………65
2.4 Threats……………………………………………………………………………66
CHAPTER 4 PROSPECT ABOUT “THE PROJECT” ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND ROC (TAIWAN) –AN EVALUATION ON BASIS OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM THEORY…………………………………………………………………………..…71
1. AN EVALUATION ON BASIS OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM THEORY ……..71
1.1 The competitors ………..……..……………………………………...…………73
1.2 Conditions of the factors ………………….…………………………...……….78
1.3 Conditions of the demand …………………………….………………..………80
1.4 Support and Related industries …………………………………………..……..82
1.5 Government………………………………………..……………………………85
1.6 Chance…………………………………………………………………………..87
2. PROSPECT ABOUT THE IMPACT OF “THE PROJECT” ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND TAIWAN ON BASIS OF THE ABOVE EVALUATION……………………….………………………...88
2.1 Positive View………………………………………………………………..…..88
2.2 Negative View……………………………………………...……………..…..…89
2.3 Prospected strategies and measures for Panama and ROC (Taiwan)…...............91

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...............................95
1. CONCLUSIONS .....................................................................................................95
2. RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................................................100
V- Bibliography……………………….………………………………….…………102
IV Annex……………………………..……………………………………………..115
1 Photos………………………………………...………………………………...…115
2 Interviews ………………………………..…………………………………...…..121
3 Perfil………… ………………………..………………………..……………...…125


TABLE INDEX
Page
Table 1: Methodology Framework……………………………………………..….....9
Table 2: Sumary of 5W + 1H ………………..………………………………………33
Table 3: Trade of Panama whith the Roc (Taiwan) 2004-2010….……..…………….38
Table 4: Import and export Between CFZ and Roc (Taiwan) …………………….....40
Table 5: Constributions according Master plan project 1999.......………………...….56
Table 6: Results national referendum in Panama…………………………………….65
Table 7: Matrix Pest..…………………………………..…………………………...93

FIGURE INDEX
Figure 1: Comparisson Between Panamax and Post-Panamax……………………....15
Figure 2: Detonation Cartagena Hill ………………………………………………...19
Figure 3: Dreeger Marco Polo………………………………………………………..23
Figure 4: Panama Canal and new routes.....................……………………………....26
Figure 5: Porter Diamond Model…………………………………………………….71
Figure 6: Suez Canal Route…………………………………………………………..74
Figure 7: An ice free route to artic………………………………………………...…76
Figure 8: New Route Panama Canal…………………………………...…………….81

GRAPHICS INDEX
Graphic 1 Trade Between Central South America and the Caribe…………………...37
參考文獻 English bibliography

Anderson David, Sweeney Dennis j. Williams Thomas A. Stadistic for business and economics, West Publishing Company, 1987.

Chow, Peter C. Y. Taiwan in the Global Economy. Westport, Connecticut: PRAEGER, 2002.

Dev Gupta, Atya. The Political economy of globalization.Massachussetts: Kluwer
academic Publisherts, 1997.

Frieden Jeffry A. Lake David A. International political Economy, perspective on global power and wealh, st. Martins Press, 1995.

Gilpin Robert, the Political economy of international relations, Princeton University Press, 1987.

Harmodio Arias. The Panama Canal. A study in international law and diplomacy.Honolulu Hawaii year 2000.

Michaell Connif The United States and the Americas, Panama and the united State. The forced alliance, printed united state of America second. edition 2001

Nicholson, Michael. Formal theories in international Relations. Cambridge university press, 1995.

Ocampo, jose Antonio and Juan Martin, globalization and Development, a latin American and carribean perspective. Chile: standford University press, 2003.

Pugel Thomas A. International Economics, macgraw-hill/Irwin 2007.

Robert C. Harding The history of Panama the greenwood histories of the modern nations, printed united state of America year 2006.

Collection of papers of the ninth international symposium on Latin America in the Republic of China, Graduate Institute of Latin American Studies, Tamkang University, 2005


Spanish bibliography

Aldo Ferrer Historia de la globalization, origen del orden economico mundial, impreso en argentina. 1996.

Berta Alicia Cheng, Como cuando y porque llegaron los chinos a Panama, poyectos editorials, Panama, 2010.

Carlos Andriani, Rodolfo Biasca, Mauricio Rodriquez, El nuevo sistema de gestion para la PYMES, Norma ediciones, Ano 2003.

Carlos Fernandez, Roberto Hernandez, Pilar Baptista Metodologia de la
investigacion,. Primera edicion, McGraw-Hill, 1991.

Constitucion Politica de la Republica de Panama.

Jorge Basave, Alejandro Dabat, Carlos MoreraGlobalizacion y Alternatives incluyentes para el siglo VVI, Instituto de investigacion eseconomicas UNAM 2002

Juan Tam Huellas chinas en Panama 150 anos de presencia, impreso en Panama por Unicos Impresores, 2006.

Mark Rosemberg, Cambios en el Ambiente Commercial Hemisferico, Oportunidades y Obstaculos, FLACSO- Chile 1993.

Huang Gregorio Recursos disponibles a las MIPYMEs en Panama, Oficina del Consejero Economico de la Embajada de la ROC (Taiwan) 2011.


Website.

Nicaragua looking to finance its Canal Interoceanic (database online) –(cited May, 10 2013) available http://www.taringa.net/posts/ecologia/15028844/Nicaragua-busca-financiar-su-Canal-Interoceanico.html

Maintenance of gates, somos Panama ( database online) –( cited May, 22, 2013 ) available from http://www.somospanama.com/canal/mantenimiento.php

Canal de Panama en el futuro (database online) ( cited March, 22 2013) available from http://www.slideshare.net/bemaguali/canal-de-panama-futuro

Objetives of the Panama canal’s expansion. Canal Autority. Imformation office, ( database online)-(cited May 22) available from http://www.pancanal.com/esp/plan/documentos/propuesta/acp-propuesta-datos-principales.pdf

Panama Canal Expansion Impact on U.S. Economy (database online) (cited May, 22, 2013)

Panama Canal Alternatives (database online)-(cited April, 26, 2013) available from http://bdigital.binal.ac.pa/bdp/canal13.pdf

The Panama Canal and his history (database online) (cited April 26, 2013) available from http://direct-democracy-navigator.org/cases/panama-canal-referendum-2006

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United Canal group, tercer juegos de exclusas (database online) (cited May, 5 2013) available from http://www.gupc.com.pa/es/proyecto/tercer-juego-de-esclusas

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Summary Free Trade Agreement Panama and ROC (Taiwan) (database online) (cited May, 8, 2013) available from http://www.reingex.com/Panama-Taiwan-TLC.shtml

The Colon free Zone (database online) (cited May, 9 2013) available from www.zonalibredecolon.com.pa

List of Flags of convenience; Countries listed as having a flag of convenience by the The International Transport Workers' Federation (database online ) ( cited May, 10 2013) available from http://www.panamashipregistration.com/en/component/content/article/7-maritime-news-a-events-in-panama/43-list-of-flags-of-convenience
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Fort Davis Colon Panama (database online) ( cited May, 12, 2013) available from http://www.loopnet.com/Listing/13648001/Fort-Davis-Colon-Panam-PA/

Banks - Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd. (database online) ( cited May, 13, 2013) available from http://www.panamabusinessandliving.es/7/19/show/35/Panama.html

Understanding the past to recognize this, The Panama Canal I: The technology for globalization (database online) (cited May, 14, 2013) available from http://www.oei.es/divulgacioncientifica/reportajes013.htm

Panama globalization (database online) (cited May, 13, 2013) available from http://es.prmob.net/canal-de-panama/panama/estados-unidos-863425.html

Panama FTA with Taiwan expands After four years of being in force, Panama and Taiwan agreed to its free trade agreement (FTA). (database online) ( cited May, 13 2013) available from http://www.centralamericadata.com/es/article/home/Panama_amplia_TLC_con_Taiwan

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Global Peace Index, The world’s leading measure of national peacefulness, the GPI measures peace according to 22 qualitative and quantitative indicators. (database online) ( cited May, 13, 2013) available from http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi-data/ Panama.

Contributions of the Canal economic system in 1999. Plan maestro, proyecto de ampliacion del canal.

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Spanish Technology in the works to expand the Panama Canal (database online) (cited May, 15 2013) available from http://www.cincodias.com/articulo/empresas/tecnologia-espanola-obras-ampliacion-canal-panama/20120229cdscdsemp_20/

BID: Central American must adjust his ports to new conditions for Panama Canal Expansion, (database online) (cited may, 13, 2013) available from http://www.latercera.com/noticia/negocios/2013/03/655-514019-9-bid-centroamerica-debe-adecuar-puertos-a-nuevas-condiciones-por-ampliacion-canal.shtml
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Panama un lugar para invertir (database online) (cited May, 14, 2013) available from http://www.yucatan.com.mx/20110302/nota-9/84423-panama-nicho-para-comerciar-.htm

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Credit conditions in Latin America remain strong, but tempered by the global environment (database online) (cited May, 14, 2013) available from http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/es/la

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doing business (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://espanol.doingbusiness.org/~/media/FPDKM/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/Foreign/DB12-Spanish.pdf

Abstention wins referendum called to approve proposed expansion of the Panama Canal (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://alainet.org/active/14094&lang=es

Asia pacific economic impact according ex administrador panama Canal (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from https://micanaldepanama.com/administrador-del-canal-de-panama-expone-impacto-de-la-ampliacion-en-sea-asia-2013/

Weeden: 'Comptroller exceeded his powers' (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://www.elsiglo.com/mensual/2010/11/09/contenido/298349.asp

The uncertain future of our Channel, Let's use the current Canal secure income to improve our poor physical and social infrastructure by Keith Holder (database online) (cited May 15, 2013) available from http://mensual.prensa.com/mensual/contenido/2004/09/11/hoy/opinion/26590.html

China wants a canal in Nicaragua' According to Noemi Sanin, Nicaragua needs to take over southern waters Colombian archipelago of San Andres to finalize project. (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/11679/039-china-quiere-un-canal-en-nicaragua-039

China wants a canal in Nicaragua' According to Noemi Sanin, Nicaragua needs to take over southern waters Colombian archipelago of San Andres to finalize project. (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/11679/039-china-quiere-un-canal-en-nicaragua-039

El modelo del diamante de Michael Porter (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://uca.migueldearriba.net/2009/11/22/modelo-del-diamante-de-porter-y-cadenas-productivas/

Diferencia entre el Canal de Suez y el Canal de Panama, (database online) (cited May, 15, 2013) available from http://www.webscolar.com/diferencias-entre-el-canal-de-panama-y-el-canal-de-suez

Geographical Impacts of the Suez and Panama Canals (database online) (cited May, 15 2013) available from http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch2en/conc2en/suez.html

Ruta de suez quita clientes a Panama (database online) (cited May, 15 2013) available from http://www.laestrella.com.pa/online/impreso/2013/03/07/ruta-de-suez-le-quita-clientes-al-canal-de-panama.asp

El Canal de Panama y la demanda del trafico de Buques (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://marygerencia.com/2010/10/04/el-canal-de-panama-y-la-demanda-del-trafico-de-buques-porta-contenedores-post-panamax/

El Canal de Panama y la demanda del trafico de buques (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://marygerencia.com/2010/10/04/el-canal-de-panama-y-la-demanda-del-trafico-de-buques-porta-contenedores-post-panamax/

Region centroamericana compite por Canales secos (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://www.s21.com.gt/pulso/2011/07/04/region-compite-canales-secos.

Plan Puebla Panama: what is it and what it means for women (database online) (cited May, 19, 2013) available from http://www.puntos.org.ni/index.php/es/ediciones-boletina/boletina-edicion-52/plan-puebla-panama-ien-que-consiste-y-que-significa-para-las-mujeres.html

The Panama Ports System consists of 26 ports of which 19 are administered by the Maritime Authority of Panama through the Directorate General of Ports and Auxiliary Maritime Industries, (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://www.amp.gob.pa/newsite/spanish/puertos2/antecedentes.html?reload_coolmenus


Panama: multimodal transport hub and logistics for the world: lecture given by Mr. Julio Fabrega, National Director of Promotion of Production and Investment Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Panama, at the First Global Forum on International Trade and Logistics held in May 2006 in Panama. (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://www.webpicking.com/notas/fabrega.htm

PANAMA, a Hub 'air cargo logistics airport master plan (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://www.entornointeligente.com/articulo/1451174/PANAMA--Un-%E2%80%98hub

Raining investments in U.S. ports logistics, The Panama Canal expansion generated a wave of investment in port infrastructure, especially in warehouses and distribution centers. (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from http://www.centralamericadata.com/es/article/home/Llueven_inversiones_logsticas_en_puertos_de_EEUU

The Torrijos - Carter and Neutrality Pact Panama (database online) (cited May, 18, 2013) available from Canalhttp://www.ellibrepensador.com/2010/03/25/los-tratados-torrijos-%E2%80%93-carter-y-el-pacto-de-neutralidad-del-canal-de-panama/

MAGAZINE AND NEWS PAPER.

www.laprensa.com.pa


The China post, june 10, 2013, taipei

The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Harvard Business reviews Michael Porters.

Magazine bussiness march 2007, year 28 number 3 panama

Revista K, edicion Panama #2-11-2007.
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