近幾年，受到自由貿易協定風潮及中國大陸崛起的影響，新一波的東亞區域整合態勢興起。在東亞區域整合中，主要以東協（Association of South East Asian 
Nations Asean，以下簡稱東協、ASEAN ) 為軸心。各國在這股區域整合推力之下，積極參與自由貿易協定 (FTA)。但在多邊架構下 (如WTO)，其談判過程牽涉到多國不同經濟利益與政治考量，這些因素使得多邊協定耗時且推行不易。鑑於雙邊的快速及其彈性與應變能力，許多國加紛紛由「多邊」轉為「雙邊」，積極透過雙邊協定與東協協商以強化其政治及貿易地位。

在這一波雙邊協定熱潮下，歐盟亦改變其貿易政策，由多邊貿易政策調整為雙邊貿易。歐盟向來積極支持多邊貿易體系，但礙於其談判進展有限，使得歐盟不得不將雙邊FTA列為促進貿易自由化的重要手段以強化歐盟產業及競爭力。由於東協有龐大市場機會及發展潛力與高度貿易保護，歐盟將東協列為FTA洽談對象，並於二○○七展開雙邊貿易協商。然而在七次談判後，歐盟與東協於二○○九年同意暫停談判。

本研究旨在研究探討歐盟-東協雙邊貿易協議之可行性。首先，研究者透過福利水準變化來分析FTA為歐盟及東協貿易協定的潛力。其次，研究者透過顯示性比較利益指數(Revealed Comprative Advantage，以下稱為RCA)及貿易互補性指數(Trade Complementarity Index，以下稱為TCI)來衡量產業互補性，以評估FTA的可行性。首先，研究者利用顯示性比較利益指數為歐盟與東協的貿易競爭力進行評比。研究發現兩方各自的產業優勢具有互補性。接著，研究者透過計算出兩國各個產業的TCI來衡量兩方產業結構的互補程度，研究顯示歐盟與東協在三十七個品項上具有互補性。綜合所有分析，本人認為歐盟及東協可藉由強化彼此優勢商品的合作來發揮各自優勢。

Regionalism is not only an issue in the western world, it is also underway in the Asia Pacific region. The rapid development of China and increasing popular of free trade agreements (FTA) are the forces for the wave of integration in the Asia Pacific region, where the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is the leading group to push for integration. The force of integration arouses countries’ interest in FTA for economic, financial, and political and security purposes. However, multilateral trade agreements are time-consuming and inefficient when involving economic and political interests of many countries in the world. In terms of flexibility and efficiency, more and more countries switch their attention from multilateral to bilateral FTAs, and seize the chance to sign a FTA with ASEAN to build political confidence and promote economic development. 

The EU was strongly committed to multilateralism in the early years. However, the inefficiency and inflexibility of multilateralism urge the EU to shift to a policy that enter into bilateral FTAs to facilitate the EU’s free market, ensure its competitiveness and reinforce political power. Taking ASEAN’s market potential and protectionism into consideration, the EU launched a FTA talk with ASEAN in 2007. However, the EU-ASEAN FTA was forced to a halt in 2009 after seven rounds of negotiations. 

The purpose of this research is to study the feasibilities of an EU-ASEAN FTA. First of all, the researcher applies theory of trade effect to examine the potentialities of a FTA between the EU and ASEAN by observing the likelihood of welfare change. Then, the study moves to complementarity analysis. In this study, Revealved Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) are used to appraise the degree of trade complementarity. Firstly, the RCA results show that products the EU and ASEAN specialize in are complementary. Secondly, the computations of TC indices show that complementarity exists in 37 product sectors.  To conclude all the findings, the researcher believes that a FTA can be a win-win opportunity if the EU and ASEAN intensify cooperation in these complementary product sectors.

I. Introduction		1

	1.1 Study Background		1

	1.2 Research Project and Motivation		2

1.3 Research Purpose		3

1.4 Research Scope		3

1.5 Research Structure		3

1.6 Research Flow Chart		4

II. Literature Review		5

	2.1 The European Union		5

	2.2 ASEAN		8 

	2.3 Economic Integration		10

	2.3.1 Five Stages of Economic Integration		10

	2.3.1 Trade Effects: Static and Dynamic		13

	2.4 EU-ASEAN Relations and Trade Agreements		17

		2.4.1 EU-ASEAN Trade and Investment Flow		17

	2.4.2 EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreements		18

	2.5 Discussions over the Feasibility of FTAs		20

		2.5.1 Discussions through Trade Effect		20

	2.5.2 Discussions through RCA Indices		22

	2.5.3 Discussions through TCI		24
	     
 III. Methodology		26

	3.1 Research Design		26

	3.2 Method		26

	3.2.1 Trade Effects		26

	3.2.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage Index		27

	3.2.3 Trade Complementarity Index		29

IV. Research Findings		31

	4.1 Potential Trade Effects of An EU-ASEAN FTA 		31

	4.2 Trade Complementarity Between the EU and ASEAN 		41

	4.2.1 Revealed Comparative Advantage 		41

	4.2.2 Trade Complementarity Index 		54

V. Conclusion		61

	5.1 Conclusion		61

	5.2 Research Limitations and Implication		62

References    		63
 
Appendix A: Harmonized System Classification at 2-Digits (2002 Version)69
Appendix B: RCA Results Computed at HS 2-Digit  76
Appendix C: RCA Results Computed at HS 2-Digit Commodity (ASEAN)  79

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Research Flow Chart		4

Figure 2-1: Trade Creation and Trade Diversion		16

Figure 4-1: Case 1 : A>E>W		34

Figure 4-2: Case 1 : A>E>W ( looking at the EU as an exporter)		34

Figure 4-3: Case 2 : A>W>E ( looking at the EU as an exporter)		35

Figure 4-4: Case 3 : E>A>W		36

Figure 4-5: Case 4 : E>W>A		37

Figure 4-6: Case 5 : W>E>A		38

Figure 4-7: Case 6 : W>A>E ( looking at the EU as an exporter)		39

List of Tables

Table 2-1: The EU’s Main Trade Partners and Trade Balance with ASEAN		17

Table 2-2: ASEAN’s Main Trade Partners and Trade Balance with the EU		18

Table 2-3: FDI Inflows into ASEAN Member Countries, 2002-2009		19

Table 4-1: The Likelihood of Trade Effect A FTA Brings to the EU and ASEAN 		32

Table 4-2: The EU and ASEAN’s RCA for 16 Product Groups, 2007-2011		42

Table 4-3: A Comparison of the EU and ASEAN RCA at Product Groups Level		47

Table 4-4: A Comparison of the EU and ASEAN RCA at 2-digit HS Level		52

Table 4-5: TCI between the EU and ASEAN at 2-digit HS Code Level		54

Table 4-6: TCI between the EU and ASEAN at 2-digit HS Code Level		58

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