團隊合作效率的分析是專案管理之重要議題，然而多數學者大多從質化分析的角度進行探討，若能利用電腦模擬進行實驗測試以量化量的方式，相信將能觀察到更細微之現象與結果。為此，本研究結合「社會網絡(Social Network)」及「代理人模擬(Agent-based Simulation)」之理論，利用多代理人模擬工具，建立團隊合作流程效率模擬程式Project Team Collaboration Efficiency Simulator,(PTCES)」。藉以透過模擬的方式，提供專案管理人員針對團隊組織成員的合作網絡(collaborative network)與作業流程進行模擬試驗，找出流程與溝通的瓶頸，從而幫助設計專案團隊。
其次，本研究以一實際建築工程案例進行模擬驗證以及參數校正，並透過多種模型檢核方法測試，證實本研究模擬程式(PTCES)之輸出數據具備相當程度的精確度及有效性。最後，本研究以三種不同鏈結程度之溝通網絡結構設計劇情模擬方案，並應用模擬程式(PTCES)進行模擬實驗。經分析比較後發現該建築工程專案之網絡結構，在只考慮溝通鏈結數的前提下，應追求局部完全網絡狀態即可達到一定程度的效率提升。

Bigger the project size is; more professionals would be involved in the project team. The communications among professional members during the entire project lifecycle is the key to project success (Gould & Joyce 2013). Many essential researches (EmpyGiri et al. 2014, Labarbe & Thiel 2014, Yin et al. 2012, Easley et al. 2003) have been proposed to increasing the collaborative efficiency of project team members. Due to the dynamic and complex natures of projects, many factor-based evaluation models have been addressed to predict or to measure the efficiency of project team members, but the simulation models. Traditional modeling approaches treat a company’s employees, projects, products, customers, and partners as either aggregated averaged quantities or as passive entities or resources in a process; for example, in the discrete-event simulation approach, the project team is treated as a number of processes. Although these approaches can capture organizational dynamics and non-linearity, they ignore the fact that all those people, products, projects, pieces of equipment, assets, etc., are all different and have their own histories, intentions, desires, individual properties, and complex relationships. The agent-based approach is free of such limitations as it suggests that the modeler directly focus on individual objects in and around the organization, their individual behaviors, and their interactions. The agent based model is actually a set of interacting active objects that reflect objects and relationships in the real world and thus is a natural step forward in understanding and managing the complexity of big projects (Anon n.d.). This research is aimed at developing an agent-based project collaboration efficiency simulation model to be an experimental tool for aiding project team design

目錄
摘要	I
Abstract	II
目錄	III
圖目錄	V
表目錄	VII
1.	緒論	1
1.1	研究動機	1
1.2	研究目的	3
1.3	研究流程與方法	4
2.	文獻回顧	10
2.1	專案團隊數值模擬	10
2.1.1	數值模擬方法	10
2.1.2	虛擬團隊模式Virtual Design Team	12
2.2	代理人建模理論	16
2.2.1	代理人建模(Agent Based Modeling and Simulation,ABMS)	16
2.2.2	模型檢核與驗證方法	19
2.3	NETLOGO多代理人系統	21
2.4	社會網絡理論	22
3.	模擬系統建構	25
3.1	問題陳述	25
3.2	研究假設	27
3.3	模擬系統運作概念	27
3.4	輸入資料建置程式	28
3.4.1	輸入資料建置程式介面設計	29
3.4.2	輸入資料建置程式功能展示	29
3.5	模擬程式設計	34
3.5.1	模擬程式輸出	35
3.5.2	模型主要變數	36
3.5.3	模擬程式主要演算法	38
3.5.4	代理人模型	42
3.5.5	模擬程式執行流程:	45
3.6	模擬程式執行流程演示	46
4.	案例分析與討論	50
4.1	案例資料建立	50
4.1.1	案例說明	50
4.1.2	案例資料蒐集	51
4.1.3	建立輸入資料模型	51
4.2	案例模擬與參數校正	57
4.2.1	參數校正	57
4.2.2	案例模擬結果分析	59
4.3	模型檢核與驗證	61
4.3.1	數據離散程度（Discrete Degree）:	62
4.3.2	假設檢定(Statistical Hypothesis Testing):	63
4.3.3	以歷史數據判斷有效性(Historical Data Validation):	65
4.3.4	預測驗證(Predictive validation)	66
4.3.5	參數變化敏感性分析 (Parameter Variability - Sensitivity Analysis)	70
4.4	劇情模擬分析	74
5.	結論與建議	78
5.1	結論	78
5.2	建議	79
參考文獻	80
附件	84
附件A	84
附件B	86


 
圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程與方法	4
圖2.1 作業執行行為模式 (資料來源: Levitt,1996)	15
圖2.2社會網絡分析工具UCINET 6	24
圖2.3 網絡圖繪製工具NetDraw	24
圖3.1 研究概念圖	26
圖3.2 模擬系統運作概念	28
圖3.3 輸入資料建置程式功能架構	29
圖3.4 基本數據建置頁面	30
圖3.5 基礎資訊/技能清單建置畫面	30
圖3.6 基礎成員清單建置畫面	31
圖3.7 基礎作業項目清單建置畫面	31
圖3.8 人員資料編輯頁面	32
圖3.9 流程資料編輯頁面	33
圖3.10 溝通網絡矩陣輸入頁面	33
圖3.11 預覽頁面	34
圖3.12 多代理人作業執行演算法	40
圖3.13 資訊/技能合作學習網絡演算法	41
圖3.14 網絡溝通擴張演算法	42
圖3.15 代理人系統類別圖	44
圖3.16 模擬程式執行流程圖	45
圖3.17 模擬程式初始畫面	46
圖3.18 參數設定畫面	47
圖3.19 建置(SETUP)畫面	48
圖3.20 模擬運行結束畫面	49
圖3.21 輸出檔案擷取畫面	49
圖4.1 案例專案流程網圖	53
圖4.2 專案排程甘特圖	53
圖4.3案例團隊組織架構圖	55
圖4.4正式網絡分布圖	55
圖4.5 初始網絡分布圖	56
圖4.6 溝通網絡矩陣圖	56
圖4.7 案例模擬溝通比率網絡分布圖	61
圖4.8 Ec參數變化影響圖	72
圖4.9 PD參數變化影響圖	73
圖4.10 單純組織架構網絡分布圖	75
圖4.11 局部完全網絡分布圖	75
圖4.12 完全網絡狀態分布圖	75

 
表目錄
表1.1作業基本資料表(部分)	7
表1.2人員基本資料表(部分)	7
表2.1 近年採用VDT之相關研究議題	13
表2.2代理人建模相關文獻	17
表2.3 NetLogo特性與語法特點	21
表2.4 近年應用NetLogo之相關研究	22
表4.1 作業基本資料表(部分)	52
表4.2 人員基本資料表(部分)	54
表4.3 校正後模擬結果彙整表	58
表4.4 案例模擬與實際值比較表	58
表4.5 模擬各作業溝通比率彙整表	60
表4.6 離散程度測定指標計算表	63
表4.7 T檢驗分析結果判斷表	64
表4.8 案例各樓層施工網圖歷史資料表	65
表4.9 各樓層模擬結果與實際值比較表	66
表4.10 問題一實驗結果比較表(ave- Ec=0.78)	68
表4.11 問題二實驗結果比較表(ave- Ec=0.78)	68
表4.12 模擬參數敏感度分析組合表	70
表4.13 參數影響曲線(Ec)平均斜率表	72
表4.14 參數影響曲線(PD)平均斜率表	73
表4.15 劇情模擬結果比較表	76

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