本研究是在考量生育跨國共同衝擊下探討經濟、政治、社會全球化對生育的影響。資料取自世界159國跨20年(1996年至2015年)的追蹤資料，使用全球化指數作為全球化程度的代理變數。除估計世界樣本，並依人均收入分析低所得國家、中低所得國家、中高所得國家及高所得國家經濟、政治、社會全球化對生育的影響。主要使用考量橫斷面相依性的一般性相關效果混合估計式(Common correlated effects pooled estimator)及誤差模型修正下的一般性相關效果平均估計式(Common correlated effects mean group estimator)，並估計固定效果、隨機效果模型、動態GMM模型作為對照。結果顯示：短期經濟、政治、社會全球化對生育的效果皆為負向顯著，與CCEP估計結果相同，但長期經濟、政治、社會全球化對生育的效果由負轉正，政治及社會層面對生育的影響呈正向顯著。綜上所述，根據誤差修正模型下的一般性相關效果平均估計式之分析結果，假若國家欲改善其生育率，可從制定家庭福利的配套措施、育嬰相關政策著手，長期而言仍決定於政治與社會層面的發展。

This study investigates the impact of economic, political and social globalization on fertility rate in consideration of common shocks. We analyze the panel data, consisting of 159 countries, from 1996-2015.In addition to estimating the world model, we examine the impact of economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate, by dividing the sample into four groups, in accordance with income per capita—low income countries, lower-middle income countries, upper-middle income countries and high income countries. We mainly use the common correlation effects pooled (CCEP) estimator and improved common correlation effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator to analyze the impact. We also estimate the fixed effects model, the random effects model, and the dynamic panel model of two-step GMM estimators, for comparison. In the framework of the error correction model, the results of CCEMG indicate that the effects of short-term economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate are all negative, which are the same as the results from the CCEP estimator. In long run, the effects of economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate all have a change in sign from negative to positive. The long-run impacts of political and social globalization are statistically significant. In sum, according to the results of the improved common correlation effects mean group estimator, if a country wants to improve its fertility rate, it can start from the formulation of family welfare supporting measures and parenting related policies, but the fertility rate in the long run is determined by political and social aspects.

目錄

第一章    緒論	                 1
第二章    文獻回顧	         8
第三章    資料來源與變數定義	10
第一節	資料來源與處理	        10
第二節    變數定義與敘述統計	13
第四章    實證模型設定	        22
第一節	靜態追蹤模型	        22
第二節	動態追蹤模型	        24
第三節	一般性相關效果估計式	25
第四節	同期相關檢定及單根檢定	27
第五章    實證結果與分析	        30
第一節	同期相關檢定及單根檢定	30
第二節	靜態追蹤資料模型 	33
第三節	動態追蹤資料模型 	40
第四節	一般性相關效果混合估計式	44
第五節	一般性相關效果平均估計式	50
第六節	敏感性分析       	54
第六章    結論           	55
研究限制與未來發展	        56
參考文獻                 	57
附錄	                        60

圖表目錄

圖1-1全球生育率趨勢圖	                        2
圖1-2不同所得水平全球化指數趨勢圖	                3
圖1-3全球生育率與經濟、社會、政治全球化指數趨勢圖	3
圖1-4不同所得水準生育率與全球化指數趨勢圖	        4
圖1-5其它經濟變數趨勢圖	                        5
圖1-6論文研究架構	                        7

圖3-1生育率線性趨勢圖	                       16
圖3-2全球化指數線性趨勢圖	                       17
圖3-3生育率箱形圖	                       18
圖3-4全球化指數箱形圖	                       18

表3-1全部樣本國家表	                       11
表3-2實證模型變數定義說明	                       15
表3-3生育率之加權敘述統計表	               16
表3-4全球化指數之加權敘述統計表	               17
表3-5經濟、政治、社會全球化指數之加權敘述統計表    19
表3-6人均國民所得對數之加權敘述統計表	       20
表3-7女性勞參率之加權敘述統計表	               20
表3-8男性失業率之加權敘述統計表	               20
表3-9女性失業率之加權敘述統計表	               21
表3-10變數相關係數矩陣	                       21

表5-1變數的單根檢定	                       30
表5-2變數的同期相關檢定	                       31
表5-3存在同期相關變數的單根檢定	               32
表5-4固定、隨機效果模型及Hausman test檢定結果     34
表5-5固定、隨機效果模型及Hausman test檢定結果     37
表5-6兩階段GMM一般化動差法估計之結果	       41
表5-7一般性相關效果混合估計式估計之結果	       45
表5-8一般性相關效果混合估計式估計之結果	       47
表5-9誤差修正模型下一般性相關效果平均估計式估計結果 51

附錄一 KOF全球化指數和變量權重	               60
附錄二 敏感性分析之結果	                       61

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