系統識別號 | U0002-2606201523001800 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2015.00907 |
論文名稱(中文) | 影響人壽保險保單失效因素之探討 |
論文名稱(英文) | To study of the factors that affect the life insurance policy to lapse |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班 |
系所名稱(英文) | Department of Insurance |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 103 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 104 |
研究生(中文) | 楊芳純 |
研究生(英文) | Fan-Chun Yang |
學號 | 702560094 |
學位類別 | 碩士 |
語言別 | 繁體中文 |
第二語言別 | 英文 |
口試日期 | 2015-06-17 |
論文頁數 | 95頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
汪琪玲(kili@mail.tku.edu.tw)
委員 - 曾郁仁 委員 - 黃瑞卿 |
關鍵字(中) |
保單失效 繳費頻率 扣繳繳費 銷售通路 |
關鍵字(英) |
lapse frequency of paying fees withholding insurance premium channel |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
本研究利用台幣傳統型保單,分析人壽保險保單失效之因素,建立羅吉斯迴歸(Logistic regression)模型及最小平方法迴歸(Ordinary Least Square,OLS)模型,分析被保險人購買單一契約及同時購買兩種契約之停效機率、停效且終結機率、停效保單終結機率及停效到終結之反應時間;我們並從保單持有人及銷售通路特性找出影響保單失效之關鍵因素,本研究之結論如下: 一、產品特性實證分析:結果顯示開始還本年度與保單失效不顯著,即無法推論,同時購買兩張保單之脫退率低於僅購買一張保單。 二、保單持有人特性實證分析:結果顯示年齡、繳費頻率、扣繳繳費、居住地區、體況、有、無貸款與保單失效有關;其中以繳費頻率為年繳、扣繳繳費,顯著且具有解釋能力。 三、銷售通路特性實證分析:結果顯示保代比二階通路較會失效;業務員專業能力部份以業務員之年齡、年資及教育程度,對招攬之保單失效機率,顯著且具有解釋能力。 建議壽險公司應持續分析保單脫退之影響因素,並建立預警及管理機制。 |
英文摘要 |
This study uses traditional police to analyze the factors affecting life insurance policy lapse, establishing logistic regression model and ordinary least square (OLS) model to analyze the probability of lapse, the probability of no continue, the probability of end, and the response time from lapse to end in situations that insured purchase only one contract and that purchase two contracts at the same time. We find the key factors affecting lapse with the characteristic of policy owner and marketing channel. In the product characteristic analysis, the results indicated that the starting year of repaying principal has no significant relation with lapse, which means it cannot be deduced that the lapse rate of buying two polices simultaneously is lower than buying one police only. The result of the characteristic of policy owner analysis shows that age, the frequency of paying fees, withholding insurance premium, place of residence, health condition, and having loan or not have relation to lapse. Paying fees annually and withholding insurance premium have significant relations with lapse. The result of the characteristic of marketing channel analysis shows that insurance agents have more possibilities for failure than two level channel. In the professional of salesman part, age, seniority, and educational status have significant relations with lapse. We suggest that life insurance companies should continue to analyze the factors of the policy lapse and to establish early warning and management mechanism. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
目錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 11 第三節 研究範圍與限制 12 第四節 研究流程與架構 13 第二章 文獻回顧 15 第一節 保單失效假說之相關文獻 15 第二節 產品特性對保單失效影響之相關文獻 21 第三節 保單持有人特性對保單失效影響之相關文獻 23 第四節 銷售通路特性對保單失效影響之相關文獻 27 第三章 研究假說與方法 31 第一節 研究假說 31 第二節 研究方法 37 第四章 研究資料 48 第一節 初步觀察 48 第二節 樣本結構 52 第五章 實證結果 56 第一節 以所有保單為基礎,觀察保單變化情況 56 第二節 以同時購買兩種保單為基礎,觀察保單變化情況 64 第六章 結論與建議 66 第一節 結論 66 第二節 建議 69 參考文獻 70 附錄 78 圖目錄 圖 1-1-1我國歷年人身保險之保險密度圖 2 圖 1-1-2我國歷年人身保險之保險滲透度圖 2 圖 1-2 我國歷年人壽保險及年金保險投保率及普及率 3 圖 1-3 人身保險業保單繼續率 5 圖 1-4 人壽保險業保險給付(金額比) 6 圖 1-5 保單生命週期 8 圖 1-6 研究架構圖 14 表目錄 表 1-1我國歷年人身保險之保險密度、保險滲透度 1 表 1-2我國歷年人壽保險及年金保險之投保率及普及率 3 表 1-3人身保險業保單繼續率統計表 5 表 1-4人壽保險業保險給付 6 表 2-1 2014年壽險通路前五大領導品牌_業務員 30 表 4-1保單狀況變化表 50 表 4-2 停效到終結之反應時間級距表 50 表 4-3 繳費方式分佈表 52 表 4-4 繳費頻率分佈表 53 表 4-5 銷售通路分佈表 53 表 4-6 招攬人評等分佈表 54 表 4-7 招攬人學歷分佈表 54 |
參考文獻 |
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