本文以臺灣地區鋼鐵產業15家公司的營業收益額為標的，探索美國次級房貸金融風暴期間內，該產業資本結構與公司表現間的關聯性。實證研究首先採用事件分析法，並以營業收益自我迴歸模型為基礎，估計預測模型並計算代表公司表現的營業收益異常值。其次，比較2008年第二季前後各八季的營業收異異常值，觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異。最後，採用縱橫資料分析法，估計2008Q1到2010Q2風暴期間內，樣本公司淨值、長期負債、銀行授信與應付帳款/票據四種資本結構變數，估計其對營收異常值的影響，判斷不同資本結構的優劣。
　　實證估計結果顯示，15家樣本公司的表現不一。縱橫資料估計結果顯示，對銀行授信依賴程度高的公司，其營收受到金融風暴的影響較小，顯示平時與銀行保持良好的往來關係者，雖然面臨流動性緊縮的金融風暴，仍可獲得銀行融通度過難關。淨值比、長期負債比與應付帳款比高的公司，其營收所受到金融風暴的影響為不顯著的負面。因此，與銀行維持良好的往來，應屬有利公司經營的良好手段。

This thesis empirically examines the effectiveness of various capital structures in coping with the adverse effects of the U.S. subprime financial crises on the steel industry in Taiwan. The quarterly sales of the 15 selected sample firms are examined. The event study method which uses the autoregressive model as the foundation for creating a forecasting model, are adopted to calculate the abnormal sales level to represent performances of the sample firms. Comparisons of the performances of the sample firms during the 8 seasons before and after the 2nd season of 2008 are conducted. The panel data analysis of the effects of 4 capital structures, namely the ratios of equity, long term liabilities, bank finance and accounts/ notes payables to total assets on the abnormal sales are then conducted using data covering the 15 seasons beginning from 2008Q1 to 2010Q2 and regression coefficients estimated.
     The empirical studies have shown that the performances of the sample firms varies and firms that those relied heavily on banks loan as major financing source performed well during the crisis, implying that a good relationship with banks is important in running business. The other three leverage ratios were negatively related to the performance, but the influences were insignificant.

目錄
致謝	I
論文提要內容	II
Abstract	III
第壹章	導論	1
第一節 研究動機	1
第二節 鋼鐵產業概況簡介	4
第三節 本文架構	5
第貳章	文獻回顧	6
第一節 資本結構理論	6
第二節 金融風暴衝擊的研究	10
第三節 本文研究方法	11
第參章	鋼鐵產業15家公司概況	13
第一節 樣本公司簡介	13
第二節 金融風暴前後各樣本公司營收值變動情況	19
第三節 樣本公司財務結構概況	20
第肆章	實證研究方法與結果	21
第一節 事件研究分析法與縱橫資料估計法	21
第二節 本文資料來源與敘述統計	32
第三節 事件分析結果	39
第四節 縱橫資料法估計結果	49
第伍章	結論	51
參考文獻	53
 
圖目錄
圖1 中華民國間接金融與直接金融流量	3
圖2 中華民國實質GDP成長率	3
圖3 鋼鐵產業營收值：2006Q3~2010Q2	19
圖4 鋼鐵產業營業收益2006Q3~2010Q2	33
圖5 15家公司實際值、預測值估計圖	44

表目錄
表1 台灣鋼鐵產業產值與進出口統計	4
表2 各公司營業狀態及外銷比重彙整表	18
表3 本文統計資料定義與來源	32
表4臺灣地區鋼鐵產業15家公司營業收益基本統計值	35
表5臺灣地區鋼鐵產業15家公司四種財務結構比例	36
表6營業收益自我迴歸模型估計結果	41
表7實際值、預測值與異常值估計	42
表8事件影響假設檢定	48
表9營業收益縱橫資料模型估計結果	50

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