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系統識別號 U0002-2606201216033200
中文論文名稱 預算赤字、成長率與匯率之研究
英文論文名稱 Budget deficit, growth rate, and exchange rate
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際企業學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master's Program, Department Of International Business
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 劉逸華
研究生英文姓名 Yi-Hua Liu
學號 699550181
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-06-03
論文頁數 56頁
口試委員 指導教授-蔡政言
指導教授-蔡明芳
委員-鮑世亨
委員-張淑惠
委員-陳財家
中文關鍵字 預算赤字  成長率  匯率 
英文關鍵字 budget deficit  growth rate  exchange rate 
學科別分類
中文摘要 受到2008金融海嘯的影響,使得歐美經濟陷於泥淖時,中國大陸卻在此時依然擁有保有高度的經濟成長,儼然成為引領全球經濟成長的重要支柱。但是在2012年的今天,看空中國大陸經濟的情緒越來越高漲,而其中對中國大陸影響最嚴重的,便是地方政府因為預算赤字所產生的地方債務問題。中國大陸的地方政府藉由借新債償舊債的方式來償還即將到期的債務,因此我們將探討利用借新債償舊債的方式償債對於中國大陸的匯率會有什麼影響。
  本文採用Cagan Model和Public Saving的兩個模型來做探討。藉由Cagan Model的預期方式來研究在預期因為預算赤字導致債務累積上升的情況下,對於匯率有什麼樣的影響。同時藉由Public Saving的模型來分析經濟成長對預算赤字的影響,進而探討是否影響其匯率。
  本研究顯示出二個主要結果: (1)當預期一個國家的政府所累積的債務過高時,將會導致匯率的升高(本國貨幣貶值、 外國貨幣升值);(2)政府所累積的債務多寡,會受到該國經濟成長的強度影響,進而影響其匯率水準。
英文摘要 When America and Europe were facing the economic depression in 2008, Mainland China still maintained high economic growth and became the leader of global economic growth. In 2012, budget deficits of local Chinese governments have resulted in serious debt. The problem is that Chinese local governments continue borrowing more money in order to pay back the old debts. The purpose of this study is to explore the affect of the expected debts caused by budget deficit on exchange rate in China.
This study uses two research models: Cagan Model and Public Saving. First, to explore the affect of expect debts caused by budget deficit on exchange rate by Cagan Model. Second, to use the Public Saving model to explore how economic growth affects budget deficit, and analyses whether it affects the exchange rate.
The results of this study reveal as follows: (1) the exchange rate will appreciate (the domestic currency devaluate, foreign currency appreciate) when one country’s expect debts are too high; (2) Government’s accumulated debts are effect by the strength of economic growth, therefore affecting the exchange rate in China.
論文目次 目錄
謝辭…………………………………………………………………………………….I
目錄…………………………………………………………………………………..IV
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………...V
表目錄………………………………………………………………………………..VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 政府預算之相關文獻 4
第二節 預算赤字相關文獻 9
第三節 經濟成長相關文獻 19
第三章 現行中國大陸債務狀況相關研究 28
第一節 中國大陸地方債成因 29
第二節 中國大陸債務情形 31
第三節 中國大陸債務解決方式與其影響 33
第四章 基本模型 34
第一節 Cagan Model 34
第二節 Public Saving 41
第五章 模型推導 44
第一節 受政府累積債務影響下的Cagan Model 44
第二節 政府累積債務 47
第六章 研究結論 49
參考文獻 50

圖目錄

圖 1-1 論文研究流程圖 3
圖 3-1 2010年中國地方政府性債務規模 31
圖 3-2 2010年中國債務占GDP比重 32

參考文獻 參考文獻
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三、 網路資料

1. 中華人民共和國審計署,http://www.audit.gov.cn/n1992130/index.html。
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