當熱錢大量移動之際，中央銀行可以採取沖銷式的干預，同時達成穩定匯率與國內金融情勢的目標，當中央銀行採行沖銷式干預外匯市場時，必須付出利息成本，此一代價往往成為開發中國家中央銀行決定是否繼續干預的重要因素。
故本文採用與Kletzer和Spiegel（2004）相同的實證方程式，對台灣地區1981年第一季至2005年第一季這段期間的樣本資料進行實證估計，探討沖銷成本是否為影響新台幣對美元匯率的重要因素。實證結果發現匯率隨沖銷成本增加而上升，而上升的幅度則快速縮小。對於這種快速上升特徵的合理解釋，與管理式浮動匯率制度的基本精神不謀而合。

When the rapid movements of hot money, central banks can take sterilized intervention to stabilize the exchange rate and domestic financial condition simultaneously. However, sterilized intervention cost the central bank in addition to the loss in interest earnings. When central bank cannot afford to these costs, it will abandon the fixed exchange rates targeting. This essay applies empirical model suggested in Kletzer and Spiegel (2004) to estimate the effects to sterilization costs on the changes in the exchange rates for Taiwan using seasonal data covering the period from 1981 to 2005. The estimated result shows that increased sterilization costs have caused rapid change in the exchange rate movements to which the managed floating exchange rate system is embedded.

目錄 ………………………………………………………………	Ⅰ
圖表目錄 …………………………………………………………	Ⅱ

第一章	緒論  	………………………………………………1

第一節	背景介紹  ……………………………………………	1
第二節	研究動機和目的………………………………………	6
第三節	研究內容 ………………………………………………	9

第二章	文獻探討	………………………………………………10

第一節	政府干預有效性的探討………………………………	10
第二節	有關沖銷成本的探討…………………………………	16

第三章	KS沖銷成本模型………………………………………21

第一節	資產組合貨幣學說的基本架構………………………	21
第二節	中央銀行的決策問題設定……………………………	24
第三節	KS沖銷成本模型的最適解與實證方程式…………… 	27

第四章	實證估計與結果…………………………………………30	

第一節	資料來源與處理過程…………………………………	30
第二節	實證研究方法…………………………………………	32
第三節	估計結果………………………………………………	34

第五章	結論……………………………………………………37	

參考文獻  …………………………………………………………	39

表目錄	
表一	原始變數資料來源…………………………………………………	30
表二	各變數資料來源……………………………………………………	31
表三	各變數資本統計資料………………………………………………	31
表四	實證估計結果………………………………………………………	36


圖目錄	
圖(一)	淨流入與匯率走勢…………………………………………………	3
圖(二)	外匯存底與匯率走勢………………………………………………	3

參考文獻
第一部份  中文部分
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