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本論文紙本於2015-03-02起公開使用
| 系統識別號 | U0002-2602201511104800 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2015.00879 |
| 論文名稱(中文) | 從「資源詛咒」角度審視委內瑞拉經濟發展（1970-2012） |
| 論文名稱(英文) | The Economic Development of Venezuela: From the Point of View of Resource Curse (1970-2012) |
| 第三語言論文名稱 | |
| 校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
| 系所名稱(中文) | 美洲研究所碩士班 |
| 系所名稱(英文) | Master's Program, Graduate Institute of the Americas |
| 外國學位學校名稱 | |
| 外國學位學院名稱 | |
| 外國學位研究所名稱 | |
| 學年度 | 103 |
| 學期 | 1 |
| 出版年 | 104 |
| 研究生(中文) | 何秉樵 |
| 研究生(英文) | Bing-Qiao He |
| 學號 | 699310164 |
| 學位類別 | 碩士 |
| 語言別 | 繁體中文 |
| 第二語言別 | |
| 口試日期 | 2015-01-16 |
| 論文頁數 | 111頁 |
| 口試委員 |
指導教授
-
熊建成
委員 - 白方濟 委員 - 黃任佑 |
| 關鍵字(中) |
委內瑞拉 資源詛咒 石油 油價 查維斯 PDVSA |
| 關鍵字(英) |
Hugo Chavez oil price Petroleum PDVSA Resource Curse Venezuela |
| 第三語言關鍵字 | |
| 學科別分類 | |
| 中文摘要 |
邏輯上，天然資源富饒的國家在經濟發展上較資源匱乏國家來得有利，然而，根據統計經濟學的研究證明，大多擁有天然資源的國家反而未蒙其利，反受其害，資源稟賦與國家發展不成正比，成為直覺上的悖論，也形成學術界所稱的「資源詛咒」現象。
委內瑞拉自廿世紀初發現石油後，石油始終對該國經濟發展扮演舉足輕重的角色，然而，在石油帶來龐大收益下，委國未能朝產業多元化發展，僅專注於石油單一產業帶來的利潤來滿足財政所需，礙於石油價格波動性極高與不易預測的特性，連帶影響委國財政收益的多寡，亦影響其國內社會福利的支出也隨之增減，從而導致國內動盪，產生惡性循環現象，並落入「資源詛咒」的陷阱中。
1999年委內瑞拉總統查維斯上任後，致力社會主義的發展道路，為了拓展國內社會福利政策乃至外交的目標，查氏採用釜底抽薪的方式，徹底掌握石油公司的控制權，藉以獲取財源。雖然在減輕貧窮率、醫療改善等社會政策達到一定的成效，然而實際上卻是揮霍石油收益換來的成果，在查氏執政時期，依舊無法擺脫「資源詛咒」所帶來的危害。
本文從「資源詛咒」的理論基礎來檢視委內瑞拉的經濟發展，說明石油如何在上個世紀逐漸成為委國最重要的財政收入來源，1970年代石油收益曾帶來繁榮，榮景卻只是曇花一現，肇因錯誤的經濟決策和財政政策，反而弱化委國的整體發展，到了查維斯執政時期情況依舊，石油收益重分配失當，使得委國依舊無法逃脫出「詛咒」。若與其他天然資源充沛且經濟發展順遂的國家相較，石油並非「資源詛咒」的原罪，卻可將石油視為一把雙面刃。
|
| 英文摘要 |
Logically, the economic development of countries with abundant natural resources is more beneficial than the one of those with shortages. However, according to the study of economics statistics which prove that countries with the most natural resources get no benefit from the windfall, resource endowment and country development are obvious not in direct proportion. Facts as such are becoming an intuitive paradox, and shaping “resource curse” phenomenon in the academic world. After the discovery of oil in Venezuela from the early twentieth century, oil has always played a pivotal role in the economic development of the country. Although the government has huge oil revenue, it fails to diversify its industrial development, singly focusing on oil industry profits to meet the financial requirement. Due to high volatility and low predictable characteristics of the oil price, the amount of Venezuelan financial benefits has been affected. Moreover, domestic social welfare spending has also come to decrease, both causing domestic unrest and resulting in a vicious cycle phenomenon and consequently falling into the trap of “resource curse.” Since Hugo Chavez took office in 1999, he’s dedicated to the socialist path of development. In order to expand the domestic social welfare policy and the diplomatic goals, Chavez adopted drastic ways, completely took the control over oil companies to obtain financial resources. Nevertheless, in reducing poverty rates and improving health care, his social policies have achieved a certain positive effect. In fact, it was by squandering the oil revenues in exchange for these achievements in the reign of Chavez. In the end, Venezuela still cannot get rid of the harm of “resource curse.” This thesis examines the economic development in Venezuela from the theoretical foundation “resource curse”, explaining how oil gradually became the most important source of revenue to Venezuela in the last century. During the 1970s oil revenues had brought prosperity, but it was only a short-lived phenomenon because of the wrong economic policy-makings and inappropriate fiscal policies, weakening the country’s overall development. Even in the era of Chavez, the same situation remained, his misconducting on the redistribution of the oil income, making the Venezuelan still not be able to escape the curse. When compared with other countries of abundant natural resources and good economic development, oil seems not an original sin of the “resource curse”, but can be viewed as a double-edged sword. |
| 第三語言摘要 | |
| 論文目次 |
第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 2 第二節 研究方法 4 第三節 文獻回顧、名詞釋義和研究限制 7 第二章 委內瑞拉廿世紀石油發展歷程 15 第一節 廿世紀委內瑞拉石油發展歷程 16 第二節 一九七〇年代資源詛咒現象 29 第三章 查維斯時期石油政策與經社發展 39 第一節 政府與國營企業之關係 40 第二節 資源詛咒與查維斯的社會福利計劃 52 第四章 委內瑞拉資源詛咒之因果關係 63 第一節 「意外」之財的弊端 64 第二節 與資源詛咒因果關係的其他因素 76 第五章 結論 93 參考文獻 99 附錄1 110 附錄2 111 圖目錄錄 圖 一-1：研究架構圖................................................................................................... 6 圖 二-1：1970 至1989 天然資源豐裕國家與GDP 成長散佈圖.............................. 35 圖 三-1：波特鑽石體系圖 ......................................................................................... 45 圖 三-2：1980 至1996 年年委內瑞拉拉貧窮家庭百分比.............................................. 54 圖 三-3：1999 至2011 年年委內瑞拉拉政府社會支出佔國內生產總值比重.............. 56 圖 四-1：1970 到2008 年年天然資源豐裕國家與GDP 成長散佈圖.......................... 66 圖 四-2：全球治理理指標：委內瑞拉拉(1996-2012)................................................... 71 圖 四-3：委內瑞拉拉2004-2009 平均收入來來源......................................................... 80 圖 四-4：拉拉丁美洲暨加勒勒比海國家能源補助比較................................................. 82 圖 四-5：委內瑞拉拉民眾對查維斯金金錢援助給其他國家的支持度度......................... 90 表目錄錄 表 一-1：天然豐裕資源和經濟發展的實證研究一覽............................................. 10 表 二-1：1922 到1929 年年委內瑞拉拉石油業出口額佔總出口額比例例...................... 19 表 二-2：1900 至1972 年年委內瑞拉拉石油和政府收入.............................................. 21 表 二-3：1958 年年至1974 年年油價及委國政府分得之收益益...................................... 27 表 二-4：1989 年年1 月華盛頓共識識下財政改革表.................................................... 32 表 二-5：1988-1992 年年委內瑞拉拉主要總體經濟指標.............................................. 33 表 二-6：1900-1995 年年委內瑞拉拉前二名商品出口表.............................................. 36 表 三-1：使命（Missions）政策之源起及實施領領域............................................. 48 表 三-2：2004-2005 年年使命（Misiones）社會福福利利支出預算表.......................... 49 表 三-3：PDVSA 社會發展投資資金金一覽表.............................................................. 51 表 三-4：委內瑞拉拉貧窮率率率2005-2006...................................................................... 55 表 三-5：委內瑞拉拉商品出口結構（1990-2010）................................................... 59 表 三-6：委內瑞拉拉政治經濟「削減-寬鬆-崩壞」循環......................................... 60 表 四-1：1920-2002 委內瑞拉拉經濟成長趨勢.......................................................... 69 表 四-2：1920-73 年年委內瑞拉拉石油產量量.................................................................. 77 表 四-3：委內瑞拉拉、發展中國家和西半球國家稅制結構比較............................. 79 表 四-4：社會支出四種類類型..................................................................................... 85 表 四-5：2001-2012 年年委內瑞拉拉貪腐感知指數數...................................................... 88 |
| 參考文獻 |
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