墨西哥在汽車產業上一直為拉丁美洲中少數發展良好的國家。以產業發展歷史軌跡來看，從初期的進口替代時期到出口擴張時期，種種國家法令也的確扶持了汽車產業的茁壯。1994年，北美自由貿易協定(North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA)正式生效，不僅使得墨西哥經濟朝向正向發展，也連帶促進了汽車產業的成長。
　　然而，2016年美國總統候選人川普不只一次抨擊此項區域協定，企圖在上任後改變協定中對美國造成不利的條款。2017年川普上任後，便即刻展開與墨西哥、加拿大之間的談判，並於一年後的2018年11月，正式簽署美墨加協定(United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, USMCA)用以取代NAFTA。USMCA對於多項議題皆有重大變革，其中之一即為與汽車產業最相關的原產地規則。在新規中，對於汽車原產地含量的規定除原本整車含量要求外，汽車零件、勞動價值含量以及鋼、鋁含量也有所規定，汽車產業也因此面臨種種考驗。
　　本論文將從NAFTA簽署前的墨西哥汽車產業開始闡述，介紹簽署前與簽署後的產業變化，並接續到2018年的新協定USMCA，以及針對墨西哥汽車產業在新規定中受到的影響和未來產業發展進行分析。

Abstract:
Mexico has always been one of the few well-developed countries in Latin America in the automotive industry. Judging from the historical trajectory of industrial development, from the initial import substitution period to the export expansion period, various national laws have indeed supported the growth of the auto industry. In 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) formally came into effect, which not only made Mexico's economy move in a positive direction, but also promoted the growth of the auto industry.

However, in 2016, the US presidential candidate Trump, criticized about NAFTA more than once, attempting to change the terms of the agreement which are disadvantageous to the United States. In 2017, after Trump took office, he immediately started negotiations with Mexico and Canada. One year later, three countries officially signed the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) which will replace NAFTA. Many topics and issues have been discussed and modified significantly in USMCA, one of which is the most relevant to the automotive industry- Rule of Origin. In the new provision, in addition to the original vehicle content requirements in NAFTA, the auto parts, labor value content, and steel and aluminum content are also specified for Rule of Origin. 

This thesis will start from the introduction of Mexican auto industry before NAFTA, introduce the changes in the industry after the signing, and describing the following agreement USMCA in 2018. Analyze the impact of the Mexican auto industry and potential industrial development brought since USMCA.

目錄
第一章　緒論	1
第一節、研究動機與目的	1
第二節、研究方法	3
第三節、研究假設	3
第四節、研究架構	3
第二章　區域整合與跨國投資相關理論	7
第一節　二次大戰後區域經濟整合的發展軌跡	7
第二節　國際投資	14
第三節　NAFTA概略	18
第三章　NAFTA簽訂前後締約國汽車產業	25
第一節　NAFTA簽訂前的美加墨汽車產業發展	25
第二節　NAFTA汽車貿易項目相關規定	34
第三節　NAFTA簽訂後的墨西哥汽車產業	37
第四章　USMCA與汽車產業	43
第一節　USMCA形成背景	43
第二節　USMCA談判過程	48
第五章　USMCA在墨西哥汽車產業所帶來的可能衝擊	61
第一節　USMCA汽車產業相關條款	61
第二節　USMCA汽車條款之影響評估	69
第三節　未來發展與走向	73
第六章　結論	77
參考書目	85

 
圖目錄
圖 3-1，2007-2010年墨西哥汽車工業概況	40
圖 4-1，1993-2019年美國與加、墨商品出口貿易平衡	44
圖 5-1，USMCA汽車原產地規定	63

表目錄
表 2-1，1995-2018年NAFTA貿易額	22
表 2-2，1995-2018年NAFTA區內商品出口貿易額	23
表 2-3，1995-2017年區域內直接投資存量	24
表 3-1，2018年美國汽車工業對外貿易	25
表 3-2，1961-1990年美國本土汽車生產的市場占有率	27
表 3-3，2018年加國汽車工業對外貿易	28
表 3-4，1955-1970年美、加汽車工業部門貿易往來	29
表 3-5，2018年墨西哥汽車工業對外貿易	30
表 3-6，1977-1982年墨西哥汽車工業產量、就業人口數	33
表 3-7，2007-2012年墨西哥汽車工業部門FDI變化	41
表 3-8，2010-2019年全球汽車生產量、排名	42
表 4-1，1994-2016年NAFTA區內汽車貿易	45
表 4-2，USMCA談判大事件時間表	56
表 5-1，USMCA所有車款及零配件區內產值累進	65
表 5-2，USMCA汽車附屬協議	66
表 5-3，NAFTA與USMCA汽車工業原產地規則比較	67
表 5-4，USMCA汽車規定變更對區內整體汽車工業影響	70

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