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系統識別號 U0002-2507201102533500
中文論文名稱 雷根政府「戰略防禦計畫」與美蘇關係
英文論文名稱 The Strategic Defense Initiative of the Reagan Administration and the U.S.-Soviet Relations
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of The Americas
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 方緒雄
研究生英文姓名 Hsu-Hsiung Fang
學號 891220013
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-06-20
論文頁數 244頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳明
委員-包宗和
委員-李明
委員-陳一新
委員-王高成
中文關鍵字 洲際彈道飛彈  彈道飛彈防禦  戰略防禦計畫  軍備控制  反彈道飛彈條約  相互保證毀滅  雷根主義 
英文關鍵字 ICBM  Ballistic Missile Defense  Strategic Defense Initiative  Arms Control  ABM Treaty  Mutual Assured Deterrence  Reagan Doctrine 
學科別分類
中文摘要 1983年3月23日雷根總統提出著名之「戰略防禦計畫」演說,呼籲美國科學界應立即將自身偉大才能轉移到確保人類與世界和平上,讓美國有能力使核武變成「無效」及「過時」。雷根於演說中所勾勒之飛彈防禦系統遠景,與歷屆美國政府相比,可謂「空前絕後」,引發美國國內第二次針對飛彈防禦展開大辯論。
雷根政府之「戰略防禦計畫」決策,最關鍵因素為雷根本人對於美國應建立飛彈防禦能力之信念,特別是對於「相互保證毀滅」核武嚇阻戰略之不認同。雷根在就任前便主張重建美國軍力與蘇聯對抗,「戰略防禦計畫」在雷根上任前兩年並未提出,主要是因為當時雷根政府優先目的在重建傳統軍力與戰略核武能力,然雷根政府提出之MX飛彈計畫遭國會反對,引發雷根提出「戰略防禦計畫」之決心。
雷根政府在「戰略防禦計畫」決策,係由在雷根授意下由國安會與白宮幕僚以秘密方式進行,目的在利用美國科技與經濟優勢壓迫蘇聯,並提高美國與蘇聯談判地位,國務卿舒茲與國防部長溫柏格等重要官員事前並不清楚決策過程,然事後均忠心支持雷根之決定。
雷根堅持「戰略防禦計畫」非美蘇談判交易籌碼,加上他堅持落實「裁減核武」之美蘇軍備控制談判比「限制核武」更有意義,以及美國對美蘇冷戰所設定之目標應為「勝利」而非僅「圍堵」,充分體現其領導風格與外交思維之獨特,此為後世稱之為「雷根主義」,並將冷戰結束、蘇聯瓦解歸功於雷根之主因。
英文摘要 On March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan made his famous speech on the “Strategic Defense Initiative.” In the speech, President Reagan called for the U.S. scientific community to turn their great talents to give the U.S. means of rendering these nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete. The missile defense vision described by President Reagan was unprecedented, and therefore induced a great debate within the U.S. on this issue.
The most important factors of President Reagan’s decision to push forward the “Strategic Defense Initiative” was President Reagan’s own conviction on the need for the U.S. to possess missile defense capability, and President Reagan did not agree with the nuclear deterrence doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction.” President Reagan believed that the U.S. should rebuild its overall military strength to compete with the Soviet Union. However, during the first two years of Reagan Administration, the focus of the rebuilding military task was on conventional forces and strategic nuclear arms. Until the MX missile deployment plan was blocked by the U.S. Congress, Reagan Administration began to push forward the “Strategic Defense Initiative.”
The preparation of President Reagan’s “Strategic Defense Initiative” was conducted secretly by the NSC and specific White House officials with the authorization from President Reagan. And the main purpose of this policy was to exploit U.S. technological and economical advantages to pressure Soviet Union as well as to improve U.S. position on arms control negotiations with Soviet Union. Although key national security officials like Schultz and Weinberger did not know much about President Reagan’s decision to propose the “Strategic Defense Initiative” On March 23, 1983, both of them faithfully obeyed President Reagan’s decision afterward.
President Reagan insisted that the “Strategic Defense Initiative” is not a bargain chip of the U.S.-Soviet negotiations, a “arms reduction” is more meaningful than “arms limitation,” and he believed that the U.S. “Cold War” strategy should be “victory” not “containment” demonstrate the uniqueness of his leadership and diplomatic thinking. That is the main reason why it was called by many as the “Reagan Doctrine”, and many people give the credit of “ending the Cold War” and “the demise of Soviet Union” to him.
論文目次 目 錄

頁次
第一章 緒論 --------------------------------------------------------------------------1
第一節 研究動機與目的-------------------------------------------------------------1
第二節 研究途徑、方法、架構、範圍與限制----------------------------------8
第三節 文獻回顧 -------------------------------------------------------------------14
第二章 理論與假設 ----------------------------------------------------------------21
第一節 國際體系分析層次-------------------------------------------------------- 21
第二節 決策理論分析層次-------------------------------------------------------- 28
第三節 嚇阻理論分析層次-------------------------------------------------------- 32
第四節 小 結 ------------------------------------------------------------------------36
第三章 雷根政府前美國之飛彈防禦政策 -------------------------------------39
第一節 美國反彈道飛彈技術發展緣起------------------------------------------39
第二節 1950年至1980年間美國飛彈防禦政策---------------------------------46
第三節 美蘇簽訂《反彈道飛彈條約》之決策過程---------------------------63
第四節 小 結 ------------------------------------------------------------------------70
第四章 雷根總統「戰略防禦計畫」之決策 ----------------------------------73
第一節 雷根總統國防戰略 --------------------------------------------------------73
第二節 雷根對「飛彈防禦」之信念形成過程 --------------------------------95
第三節 雷根政府「戰略防禦計畫」之決策分析-----------------------------102
第四節 小 結 -----------------------------------------------------------------------137
第五章 雷根政府「戰略防禦計畫」對美蘇關係影響 ---------------------141
第一節 蘇聯對「戰略防禦計畫」之反應 -------------------------------------141
第二節 美蘇就雷根政府「戰略防禦計畫」之談判交涉 -------------------153
第三節 「戰略防禦計畫」對戈巴契夫決策之影響 -------------------------179
第四節 小 結 -----------------------------------------------------------------------186
第六章 研究發現與結論--------------------------------------------------------------189
第一節 研究發現------------------------------------------------------------------------189
第二節 結論-------------------------------------------------------------------------------199
參考文獻 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------201
附錄 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------227

表 次
頁次
表1-1 雷根任內與戈巴契夫召開四次元首峰會情況 -------------------------7
表2-1 守勢現實主義與攻勢現實主義之差異 ---------------------------------28
表3-1 NIKE-ZEUS A 型系統測試情況 ----------------------------------------44
表3-2 各型NIKE 系統飛彈性能諸元比較 ------------------------------------46
表3-3 1963-1969 年美蘇兩國ICBM 載具數量對比 -------------------------57
表4-1 1969-1978 年美蘇年度軍事活動支出金額比較 ----------------------90
表4-2 雷根政府在MX 飛彈問題相關提議與國會反應---------------------111
表4-3 理性行為者模式分析「戰略防禦計畫」決策------------------------113
表5-1 美蘇兩國在彈道飛彈防禦相關領域發展比較表---------------------147
表5-2 雷根政府對SDI 研發經費需求情況 ----------------------------------153
表5-3 雷根就美蘇戰略武器裁減談判之7 次《國家安全決策指示》---157

圖 次
頁次
圖2-1 懦夫賽局 --------------------------------------------------------------------34
圖2-2 根本不對稱嚇阻賽局 -----------------------------------------------------35
圖2-3 一般性連續嚇阻賽局 -----------------------------------------------------36
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二、期刊論文
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貳、英文部分
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 78, U.S. Approach to START Negotiations V, February 1, 1983, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 85, Eliminating the Threat From Ballistic Missiles, March 25, 1983, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 98, U.S. Approach to START Negotiations VI, June14, 1983, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 106, U.S. Approach to START Negotiations VI, June14, 1983, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 116, Strategic Defense Initiative: Congressional and Allied Consultation, December 2, 1983, retrieved from: http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/offdocs/nsdd116.htm.
______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 119, Strategic Defense Initiative, January 6, 1984, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 121, Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control Agreements, January 14, 1984, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 142, Arms Limitation Talks, September 1984, July 5, 1984, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 153, Instructions for the Schultz-Gromyko Meeting in Geneva, January 1, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 160, Preparing for Negotiations with the Soviet Union, January 24, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 165, Instructions for the First Round of U.S./Soviet Negotiations in Geneva, March 8, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 172, Fact Sheet on the Strategiv Defense Initiative, June 1, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 183, Meeting with Soviet Leader in Geneva, August 8, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 192, The ABM Treaty and the SDI Program, October 11, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 195, The U.S. Position: Nuclear and Space Talks, October 30, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 202, Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control Agreements, December 20, 1985, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 209, Implementing Decisions of the Geneva Summit, February 4, 1986, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 210, Allied Consultations on the U.S. Response to General Secretary Gorbachev's January 14, 1986, Arms Control Proposal, February 4, 1986, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 233, Consultations on a Response to General Secretary Gorbachev, July 31, 1986, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 244, Meeting with Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev, October 3, 1986, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 261, Consultations on the SDI Program, February 18, 1987, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 267, Review of U.S. Arms Reductions Negotiating Positions, April 9, 1987, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 287, Organizing for the Summit with General Secretary Gorbachev, November 10, 1987, retrieved from:
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______. National Security Decision Directive, Number 307, U.S. Arms Reduction Positions for the Moscow Summit, May 27, 1988, retrieved from:
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______. 1989. Minutes of meetings of the National Security Council. Second supplement. Frederick, MD: University Publications of America.
______. 1995. Minutes of meetings of the National Security Council. Third supplement. Frederick, MD: University Publications of America.
______. 1982. Minutes of meetings of the National Security Council. with Special Advisory Reports. Frederick, MD: University Publications of America.
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______. 1989. Foreign Relation of United States, 1955-57, Vol. 24:Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean. Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
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______. 1995. Foreign Relation of United States, 1961-63, Vol. 7:Arms Control and Disarmament. Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 1996. Foreign Relation of United States, 1961-63, Vol. 8:National Security Policy. Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 1997. Foreign Relation of United States, 1964-68, Vol. 11:Arms Control and Disarmament, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 2000. Foreign Relation of United States, 1964-68, Vol. 14:Soviet Uniont, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 2006. Foreign Relation of United States, 1969-76, Vol. 12:Soviet Union, January 1969-October 1970, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 2006. Foreign Relation of United States, 1969-76, Vol. 14:Soviet Union, October 1971-May 1972, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 2007. Foreign Relation of United States, 1969-76, Vol. E-2:Documents on Arms Control and Nonproliferation, 1969–1972, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
______. 2010. Foreign Relation of United States, 1969-76, Vol. 32:SALT I, 1969–1972, Washington D. C.: Government Printing Office.
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二、官方報告
Ackerman, David M. 2002. Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty: Legal Considerations. CRS Report for Congress, updated December 31, 2002.
Critchlow, Robert D. 2006. Nuclear Command and Control: Current Programs and Issues. CRS Report for Congress, updated May 3, 2006.
Kennedy, John F. 1962. “Nuclear Testing and Disarmament.” Department of State Bulletin 46, no. 1186 (19 March): 445.
Hildreth, Steven A. 1988. The Strategic Defense Initiative: Issue for Phase I Deployment. CRS Report for Congress, updated March 7, 1988.
______. 2008. Ballistic Missile Defense: Historical Overview. CRS Report for Congress, updated January 28, 2008.
U.S. Department of Defense. 2010. Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, by Robert M. Gates. Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense.
______. 1993. Report on the Buttom-up Review, by Les Aspin. Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense.
______. 1986. Soviet Military Power 1986. Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense.
U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. 2008. Missile Defense: The First Sixty Years. Distribution Statement A (August).
Woolf, Amy F. 2000. Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Demarcation and succession Agreements: Background and Issues. CRS Report for Congress, updated April 27, 2000.
______. 2001. Missile Defense, Arms Control, and Deterrence: A New Strategic Framework. CRS Report for Congress, updated October 31, 2001.
______. 1999. National Missile Defense and the ABM Treaty: Overview of Recent Events. CRS Report for Congress, updated March 19, 1999.
______. 2002. National Missile Defense: Russia’s Reaction. CRS Report for Congress, updated June 14, 2002.
______. 2004. Nuclear Weapons in Russia: Safety, Security, and Control Issues. CRS Report for Congress, updated January 21, 2004.
______. 2006. U.S. Nuclear Weapons: Changes in Policy and Force Structure. CRS Report for Congress, updated August 10, 2006.
______. 2007. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues. CRS Report for Congress, updated September 5, 2007.
三、書籍
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Brandt, Karl Gerald. 2009. Ronald Reagan and the House Democrats: Gridlock, Partisanship, and the Fiscal Crisis. Columbia, MO: University of Missouri Press.
Bruce-Briggs, B. 1988. The Shield of Faith: A Cronical of Strategic Defense from Zepplins to Star Wars. New York: Simon & Schuster.
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______. 1994. Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
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______. 1979. White House Years. New York: Little Brown & Co.
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四、期刊論文
Achen, Christopher H., and Duncan Snidal. 1989. “Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies.” World Politics, Vol. 41, No. 2: 144-169.
Busch, Andrew A. 1997. “Ronald Reagan and the Defeat of the Soviet Empire.” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 3: 451-467.
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Halperin, Morton H. 1972. “The Decision to Deploy the ABM: Bureaucratic and Domestic Politics in the Johnson Administration.” World Politics 25, no.1 (October): 62–95.
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Kass, Ilana, and Ethan Burger. 1985. “Soviet Responses to the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative: The ABM Gambit Revisited?”Air University Review (March/April): 1-10.
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Lanouette, William. 1990 “James D. Watkins: Frustrated Adimiral of Energy.” Bullitin of Atomic Scientist (January): 38.
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McFarlane, Robert. 1988. “Effective Strategic Policy.” Foreign Affairs (Fall): 41.
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Pach, Chester. 2006. “The Reagan Doctrine: Principle, Pragmatism, and Policy,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 1: pp. 75-88.
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Stubbs, Eric. 1987. “Soviet Strategic Defense Technology.” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (April 1987): 14.
Talbott, Strobe. 1989. “The Master of the Game: Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace.” Foreign Affair (Spring): 193.
Uhler, Walter C. 2000. “Misreading the Soviets.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July/August): 69.
Zagare, Frank C. 2004. “Reconciling Rationality with Deterrence: A Re-examination of Logical Foundation of Deterrence Theory.” Journal of Theoretical Politics, 16(2): 107-141.
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五、學位論文
Clearwater, John M. 1996. Johnson, McNamara, and the Birth of SALT and the ABM Treaty 1963-1969. Doctoral Dissertation, Kings College, London, UK.
Cho, Yeonmin. 2009. US Decision Making on Missile Defense. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh PA.
Constance Jr., Joseph W. 2006. The great American missile defense debates since the nineteen sixties. Doctoral Dissertation, Boston University, Boston, MA.
Hausenfleck, Michael. 1996. The Reagan Doctrine: A Conceptual Analysis of the Democracy Imperative in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1981-1988. Doctoral Dissertation, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA.
Hubert, David A. 1995. Public Opinion and the Reagan Doctrine: Issue Structure and the Domestic Setting of Foreign Policy. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT.
MacDougall, A.S. 1987. Strategic Defense Initiative: Implications for US Deterrence Policy. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA.
Melton, A.G. Kluge. 1992. Intervention and the Reagan Doctrine. Doctoral Dissertation , Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Scott, James M. 1993. American Foreign Policy-making and the Reagan Doctrine. Doctoral Dissertation, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL.
六、報紙、媒體
Associated Press. 1983. “Teller and 10 Others Receive Science Medal from Reagan.” May 28.
______. 2000. “GPALS: Bush’s Missile Defense Proposal.” April 29.
______. 2008. “Russia Warns of Military Reponse If U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Agreement Approved.” July 8.
______. 2008. “Medvedev: Russia to Deploy Missiles in Response to U.S. Missile Shield.” November 5.
Guardian. 2007. “Russia threatening new cold war over missile defence.” April 11, retrieved from:〈http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/apr/11/usa.topstories3〉
New York Times. 1983. “Andropov Says U.S. is Surring a Race in Strategic Arms.” March 27, p. A14.
______. 1985. “Reagan’s Star War Bid: Many Ideas Converging.” March 4, p. A8.
______. 2009. “White House Scraps Bush’s Approach to Missile Shield.” September 17, p. A1.
Time Magazine. 1946. “We Want with the West.” December 9, retrieved from: 〈http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,793264-1,00.html〉
Wall Street Journal. 1982. “The State of State.” January 29, p. 1.
Washington Post. 1983. “President Seek Futuristic Defense Against Missiles.” March 24, p. A1.
______. 1985. “Reagan Seized Idea Shelved in 80 Race.” March 3, p. A19.
______. 2004. “Rescue with a Presidential Push.” June 11, p. A25.
______. 2008. “Eisenhower Advisers Discussed Using Nuclear Weapons in China.” April 30, p. A.15.
七、其他報告
Cirincione, Joseph. 1998. “The Persistence of Missile Defense Illusion.” Presented at a Conference in Como, Italy, July 2-4, retrieved from:
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=133.
Donovan, Frederic, and James Goodby. 1988. “Changing the Rules: President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Decision.” Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.
Hildebrandt, Gregory. 1988. “SDI and the Soviet Defense Burden.” RAND Corporation (December).
八、相關網站
http://www.ford.utexas.edu/library/document/nsdmnssm/nsdm.htm
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/index.html
http://www.mda.mil/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Doctrine
http://www.reaganfoundation.org/white-house-diary.aspx
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/
http://www.turmoilandtriumph.org/
http://www.thereaganfiles.com/
http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/acda/
http://www.foia.cia.gov/
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