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系統識別號 U0002-2506201418495900
中文論文名稱 影響美國離婚比例的經濟因素之時間序列-橫截面模型分析
英文論文名稱 A Panel Data Analysis of the Economic Determinants of the US Divorce Ratio
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master's Program, Graduate Institute of the Americas
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 巫捷伃
研究生英文姓名 Chieh-Yu Wu
學號 601250060
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2014-06-13
論文頁數 61頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-陳思寬
委員-萬哲鈺
中文關鍵字 結婚比例  離婚比例  無過錯離婚  經濟因素  離婚率  時間序列-橫截面模型 
英文關鍵字 Divorce rate  marriage rate  divorce ratio  economic determinants  no-fault divorce  panel data regression 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本章旨在分析影響美國2005-2012年離婚比例的重要經濟因素。 一般來說,沒有結婚就不會發生離婚。因此,很有可能長期影響離婚比例的重要原因就是結婚比例。我們得知近幾年來,美國社會的經濟不景氣造成許多社會問題,這些社會問題包含不公平的的教育資金分配制度、貧富懸殊、犯罪問題,以及婚姻問題。離婚是社會問題,雖然政府在制訂法令以減少離婚的角色並不大,但是應該要縮小其發生的機會。因為只要牽扯到孩子就會有連帶效應,離婚對小孩來說是有害的,對社會也是。
美國結婚率(每一千人口的婚姻)在1980年代中期達到高峰,並從那時開始持續穩定下降。當然,結婚人口總數也在下降。換句話說,人們所期望離婚人數下降的時間也在同一時期。除此之外,在離婚率下降趨勢的時間有發生重要的波動。這波動與下降趨勢,就是本研究所要分析的。
影響婚姻解組的原因有很多種,雖然從過去的資料顯示,經濟因素一直是重要關鍵,但是也不完全所有的原因都跟經濟有關。因為時間序列-橫截面模型數據非常詳細密集,可以觀察離婚趨勢和波動的走勢狀態和地域差異,並嘗試把國家和區域變動與人們均收入與失業做關聯等。此外,國家趨勢不同地理位置的宗教信仰與節育的增加,以及其他社會趨勢。
關於離婚,有著眼於通過互補家庭生產和家庭消費所發揮的作用的經濟學的另一種觀點。第一種觀點就是,兩個人的婚姻生活可以減少過多花費,並且可以產生有價值的服務。因為如果離婚住在不同州會相對花費更多,像是購買電視、汽車,家具這些耐用產品。家庭生產與消費需求是決定人們是否離婚的因素。理所當然地,離婚的代價就能顯現離婚主要的障礙(法律費用)。方便能離婚就會促使離婚率上升(所謂的無過錯離婚)。
本文目的在發掘和研究盡可能多的可用性數據,影響離婚的各種因素,以便更好地確定哪些因素最重要,並且對美國各州的離婚率和地區影響最大。結婚比例在這長期的離婚趨勢扮演著關鍵角色。讓我們進一步的更深入的分析,為什麼人們都選擇不結婚。而且這必須建立在離婚下降趨勢的真正原因上。
英文摘要 This thesis proposes to analyze the important determinants of divorce ratio in the US over the period 2005-2012. Naturally one cannot divorce if one is not married. This means that probably the most important determinant of long term divorce ratio is the marriage ratio. It is well known that the marriage rate has been falling in the US for several decades. The marriage rate (say marriages per 1000 population) in the US peaked around the mid-1980s and has been falling steadily since that time. It is also true that the absolute number of marriages have been falling as well. This means that one would expect a falling divorce rate in the US over roughly the same period. Nevertheless, there have been significant fluctuations in the divorce rate around its declining trend. It is this fluctuation, as well as the declining trend which this thesis proposes to analyze.
Divorce is typically thought to be a social problem and something which should be minimized, although there is only a small role for government to play in forming policies that reduce divorce. While it is true that divorce may be nothing more than releasing individuals from poor choices made in getting married it seems clear that if children are involved there may be collateral effects of the divorce that are harmful to the children and in turn to society. There are numerous causes for families to break. Not all of these causes are economic in nature, although it is clear from past studies that economic factors do indeed play an important, if not central, role. Because of the highly detailed nature of the panel data set, it is possible to look at state and regional differences in divorce trends and fluctuations about the trend and attempt to correlate these with state and regional movements in per capita income, unemployment, etc. In addition, there are national trends in such things as geographic variations in religious faith, increased usage of birth control, and other social trends.
There is an alternative view of the economics of divorce that looks at the role played by complementary household production and household consumption. In the first case it may be easier and less costly to produce valuable services at home if two people work together in a dependable married manner. It is also possible that living apart in a state of divorce can be relatively more costly when one views such things as the purchase of durable goods like televisions, furniture, automobiles, etc. These needs of household production and consumption can be important factors in determining whether people get divorced. Naturally, the price of divorce (i.e. legal fees) can present a major barrier to divorce. Ease of divorce (such as so-called "no-fault divorce") can encourage a rise in the divorce rate.
This thesis proposes to unearth and examine, as much as the availability of data will allow, the various determinants of divorce to better ascertain which factors play the most important role and have the biggest impact on the divorce rates for the various states and regions of the US.
The importance of the marriage ratio in determining long run trends in the divorce ratio means that any further or deeper analysis of why people are choosing not to marry must be made to establish the true causes of the downward trend in divorce. An attempt will be made to try to include these factors into the model to see if both marriage and divorce can be simultaneously determined by a small set of stable and informative factors.
論文目次 目錄…………………………………………………………………………V

圖目錄……………………………………………………………………VII

表目錄……………………………………………………………………VIII

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究主題 1
第二節 研究動機與研究目的 2
第三節 研究方法 5
第四節 研究限制 6
第二章 文獻回顧 8
第一節 國內文獻 8
第二節 國外文獻 9
第三章 離婚的經濟學理論方面 13
第一節 介紹 13
第二節 離婚的簡單模型 16
第三節 靜態離婚的簡單模型之比較 18
第四節 社會經濟變項對模型之影響 23
第四章 經驗模型與評估 27
第一節 概述---選擇適當的離婚變項 27
第二節 美國社區調查 (ACS) 離婚比例的說明 32
第三節 數據的統計性分析描述 34
第四節 基本實證模型 40
第五節 實證結果 43
第五章 結論 52
參考書目 57

圖目錄

圖1-1: 美國每1000個已婚婦女中的離婚數………………………………………………4
圖1-2: 2009年美國各州男性離婚率…………………………………………………………5
圖4-1: 實際上與預測的離婚率………………………………………………………………29
圖4-2: 從回歸視在面板預測比率上實際離婚率的分位數斜率……………………………31
圖4-3: 美國離婚率與結婚率逐漸接近………………………………………………………33
圖4-4: 2000-2012年美國各州離婚比例……………………………………………………35
圖4-5: 離婚比例的地理性強度………………………………………………………………37
圖4-6: 離婚率中的總體男性成長……………………………………………………………38
圖4-7: 離婚比率的地理性分組………………………………………………………………40
圖4-8: Q-Q圖…………………………………………………………………………………50
圖4-9: 隨機變數圖……………………………………………………………………………51

表目錄

表3-4:家庭活動分類表………………………………………………………………………26
表4-1: 離婚率與離婚比例之關係……………………………………………………………28
表4-4: 離婚比例在各種解釋變數之時間序列- 橫截面回歸……………………………42
表 4-5:時間序列-橫截面回歸結果-兩項變數結果…………………………………………45
表4-6:時間序列-橫截面回歸結果-三項變數結果………………………………………47
表4-7:時間序列-橫截面回歸結果-四項、五項,與六項變數結果……………………49




















參考文獻 中文參考文獻

張青惠. (1995). 八位離婚女性離婚歷程之分析研究:由依賴婚姻走向獨立生活。台灣師範大學教育心理與輔導學系碩士論文

謝美娥. (2006). 從政策面探討美國女性單親家長的工作與福利.

郭麗安,王唯馨. (2009). 台灣離婚調解場域的觀察與反省:訓練與性別

高鳳仙. (1984). 我國現行離婚法與美國統一離婚法之比較研究.




英文參考文獻

Amato, P. R., & Keith, B. (1991). Parental divorce and the well-being of children: a meta-analysis. Psychological bulletin, 110(1), 26.

Bloom, B. L., Asher, S. J., & White, S. W. (1978). Marital disruption as a stressor: a review and analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 85(4), 867.

Bremmer, D., & Kesselring, R. (2004). Divorce and female labor force participation: Evidence from times-series data and cointegration. Atlantic Economic Journal, 32(3), 175-190.

Cameron, S. (1995). A review of economic research into determinants of divorce. British review of economic issues, 17(41), 1-22.

Coltrane, S., & Adams, M. (2003). The social construction of the divorce “problem”: Morality, child victims, and the politics of gender. Family Relations,52(4), 363-372.

Emery, R. E., Sbarra, D., & Grover, T. (2005). Divorce mediation: Research and reflections. Family Court Review, 43(1), 22-37.

Furstenberg Jr, F. F. (1994). History and current status of divorce in the United States. The Future of Children, 29-43.

Goldstein, J. R. (1999). The leveling of divorce in the United States.Demography, 36(3), 409-414.

Kalmijn, M., De Graaf, P. M., & Poortman, A. R. (2004). Interactions between cultural and economic determinants of divorce in the Netherlands. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66(1), 75-89.

Kalmijn, M., & Poortman, A. R. (2006). His or her divorce? The gendered nature of divorce and its determinants. European sociological review, 22(2), 201-214.

Lawrence H. Summers. (1991). The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 93, No. 2, Proceedings of a Conference on New Approaches to Empirical Macroeconomics., pp. 129-148.
Lawson, E., & Thompson, A. (1994). Historical and social correlates of African American divorce: Review of the literature and implications for research. The Western Journal of Black Studies.

Norton, A. J., & Moorman, J. E. (1987). Current trends in marriage and divorce among American women. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 3-14.

Nunley, J. M. (2010). Inflation and other aggregate determinants of the trend in US divorce rates since the 1960s. Applied Economics, 42(26), 3367-3381.

Ogburn, W. F., & Nimkoff, M. F. (1955). Technology and the changing family(Vol. 280). Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Schoen, R., & Canudas‐Romo, V. (2006). Timing effects on divorce: 20th century experience in the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 68(3), 749- 758.

Shelton, B. A. (1987). Variations in divorce rates by community size: A test of the social integration explanation. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 827-832.

South, S. J. (1985). Economic conditions and the divorce rate: A time-series analysis of the postwar United States. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 31-41.

Trent, K., & South, S. J. (1989). Structural determinants of the divorce rate: A cross-societal analysis. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 391-404.

Whitaker, C. A., & Miller, M. H. (1969). A reevaluation of psychiatric help when divorce impends. American Journal of Psychiatry, 126(5), 611-618.

White, L. K. (1990). Determinants of divorce: A review of research in the eighties. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 904-912.


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