本文以臺灣地區個人電腦產業10家公司的營業收益額為標的，探索美國次級房貸金融風暴期間內，該產業資本結構與公司表現間的關聯性。實證研究首先採用事件分析法，並以營業收益自我迴歸模型為基礎，估計預測模型並計算代表公司表現的營業收益異常值。其次，比較2008年第二季前後各八季的營業收益異常值，觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異。最後，採用縱橫資料分析法，估計2008Q1到2010Q2風暴期間內，樣本公司淨值、長期負債、銀行授信與應付帳款/票據四種資本結構變數，估計其對營收異常值的影響，判斷不同資本結構的優劣。
實證估計結果顯示，10家樣本公司的表現不一。縱橫資料估計結果顯示，淨值比、長期負債比與銀行貸款比三個解釋變數對營收異常值的影響皆為顯著的負值，亦即，規模大與高財務槓桿的公司受到金融風暴的衝擊較大。此外，四種槓桿變數間具有高度的線性相關，表示個人電腦產業的資本結構維持同步變動。

This thesis empirically examines the effectiveness of various capital structures in coping with the adverse effects of the U.S. subprime financial crises on the personal computer industry in Taiwan. The quarterly sales of the 10 selected sample firms are examined. The event study method which uses the autoregressive model as the foundation for creating a forecasting model, are adopted to calculate the abnormal sales level to represent performances of the sample firms. Comparisons of the performances of the sample firms during the 8 seasons before and after the 2nd season of 2008 are conducted. The panel data analysis of the effects of 4 capital structures, namely the ratios of equity, long term liabilities, bank finance and accounts/ notes payables to total assets on the abnormal sales are then conducted using data covering the 10 seasons beginning from 2008Q1 to 2010Q2 and regression coefficients estimated.
The empirical studies have shown that the performances of the sample firms varies and firms that three of the leverage factors other than accounts/notes payables ratio have significant adverse impacts on the performances of the sample firms in the PC industry. In addition, there existed high multicollinearity among the leverage factors in the PC industry, meaning that they moved closely with each others.

目錄
誌謝辭	I
中文摘要	II
英文摘要	III
圖目錄	VI
表目錄	VII

第壹章、導論	1
第一節	研究動機	1
第二節	個人電腦產業概況簡介	4
第三節	本文架構	6
第貳章、文獻回顧	7
第一節	資本結構理論	7
第二節	金融風暴衝擊的研究	11
第三節	本文研究方法	12
第參章、個人電腦產業十家公司概況	14
第一節	樣本公司簡介	14
第二節	金融風暴前後各樣本公司營收值變動情況	30
第三節	樣本公司財務結構概況	31
第肆章、實證研究方法與結果	32
第一節	事件研究分析法與縱橫資料估計法	32
第二節	本文資料來源與敘述統計	42
第三節	事件分析結果	47
第四節	縱橫資料法估計結果	56
第伍章、結論	59
參考資料	61
圖目錄

圖1 中華民國間接金融與直接金融流量	3
圖2 中華民國實質GDP成長率	3
圖3 個人電腦產業營收值	30
圖4 十家公司營業收益實際值與預測值	53


表目錄

表1 本研究之十家樣本公司簡介	29
表2 本文統計資料定義與來源	43
表3 臺灣地區個人電腦產業十家公司營業收益基本統計值	44
表4 臺灣地區個人電腦產業十家公司四種財務結構比例	46
表5 營業收益自我迴歸模型估計結果	50
表6 實際值、預測值與異常值估計	51
表7 事件影響假設檢定	55
表8 營業收益縱橫資料（存量）模型估計結果	57

參考資料
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Aizenman, Joshua, Yothin Jinjarak and Donghyun Park, (2011). “Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010.” NBER Working Paper No. 17502. 
Alessandria, George, Joseph P. Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan, (2010). “The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09: An Inventory Adjustment?” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 254-94.
Bems, Rudolfs, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu YI, (2010). “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 295-326.
Claessens, Stijn, Hui Tong and Shang-Jin Wei, (2011). “From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: Using Firm-Level Data to Identify Transmission Channels,” NBER Working Paper 17360.
Forbes, Kristin J., (2004). “The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: The International Transmission of Crises in Firm-Level Data,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 63, pp.59–92.
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and M. Ayhan Kose, (2010). “Introduction: Economic Linkages, Spillovers, and the Financial Crisis—1,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, pp. 209–213.
Imbs, Jean, (2010). “ The First Global Recession in Decades, “ IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 327-354.
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Elias Papaioannou and Fabrizio Perri, (2012). “Global Banks and Crisis Transmission,” NBER Working Paper 18209. 
Levchenko, Andrei A., Logan T. Lewis and Linda L. Tesar, (2010). “The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun.” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 214-253.
Raddatz, Claudio, (2006). “Liquidity Needs and Vulnerability to Financial Underdevelopment,” Journal of Financial Economics, 80 (2006) 677–722. 
Rajan, Raghuram G. and Luigi Zingales, (1998). “Financial Dependence and Growth,” American Economic Review, Vol. 88 No. 3, pp. 559-586. 
Tong, Hui and Shang-Jin Wei, (2011). “The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis,” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 24 No. 6, pp. 2023-2052.

賈昭南，2009，《國際金融：市場與理論》，滄海書局
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