§ 瀏覽學位論文書目資料
  
系統識別號 U0002-2506201014024000
DOI 10.6846/TKU.2010.00881
論文名稱(中文) 俄中亞政策與上海合作組織(2001-2009)
論文名稱(英文) Russian Policy in Central Asia and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (2000-2009)
第三語言論文名稱
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中文) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英文) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
外國學位學校名稱
外國學位學院名稱
外國學位研究所名稱
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 王敏
研究生(英文) Arzhaana Mongush
學號 696330389
學位類別 碩士
語言別 英文
第二語言別
口試日期 2010-06-22
論文頁數 143頁
口試委員 指導教授 - 彼薩列夫
委員 - 馬良文
委員 - 王定士
關鍵字(中) 俄羅斯、中國、中亞洲、上海合作組織、阿富汗、地緣政治學
關鍵字(英) Russian Federation, China, Central Asia, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Afghanistan, Geopolitics, National Interests.
第三語言關鍵字
學科別分類
中文摘要
自蘇維埃政權垮台後,中亞產生哈薩克、吉爾吉、塔吉克、土爾曼及烏茲別克五個新的國家。此五個國家不僅與中國毗連,也被視為俄羅斯勢力範圍的一部分。中亞不僅擁有豐富的天然資源,更佔有重要的地緣戰略位置,使得國際勢力因而競相干涉在此地區的事務。九一一攻擊事件後,美國藉此將軍事勢力滲入中亞,與俄羅斯、中國競相對抗。在此態勢之下,中亞成為了國際政治的關注焦點。
從地緣政治及國家利益的途徑出發,本文將檢視上海合作組織(SCO)的起源和前景,以及在此框架之下的經濟與安全合作。此外本研究也將探討在俄羅斯及其他SCO成員國互動中,國家利益的考量如何影響各國 – 尤其是俄羅斯與中國 – 的政策。
SCO是各國平衡彼此之間利益的有效平台。其不僅是在俄羅斯與中國之間尋求重要利益的管道,更是管理兩國事務、鞏固中俄雙邊關係的重要機制。對俄羅斯而言,SCO提供了其加強與中亞各國政治、軍事及經濟聯繫的機會,也可限制中國在此區域中持續增長的影響力,並同時平衡美國滲入的勢力。俄羅斯對SCO未來發展最關切的是中國的政策 - 中國以SCO為管道,將經濟力量滲透到中亞地區。俄羅斯將盡力維護SCO內部的權力平衡,以壓制中國欲藉由SCO擴大在中亞影響力的意圖。本文認為,俄羅斯應將自身設定為上海合作組織與歐洲-大西洋各組織機構 (像是EU或NATO)間的”橋梁”。這些組織對中亞的興趣正逐漸增加當中,若俄羅斯能扮演此連結的角色,將可強調其貫穿歐亞的特殊地緣政治地位,也能提升俄羅斯在SCO中的影響。
英文摘要
After the collapse of the Soviet Union five new states emerged in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Adjacent to China and traditionally being viewed as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, Central Asia not only has vast natural resources, but also occupies important geostrategic position, which lures the international powers to engage in the area’s affairs. By military presence emerged after September 11 event, the US found a way to counteract the influence of Russia and China in Central Asia. Consequently, Central Asia has become the focus of international politics. 
Applying a geopolitical and national interest approaches to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) established by Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2001, the thesis examines the origins and prospects of the SCO as well as the economic and security cooperation within its framework. It is also explores how the national interests of Russia and other member states drive their policies towards the interaction within the SCO, in particular, of those Russia and China.  
The SCO serves as a useful forum for its member states in balancing interests between each other. As well as being an instrument for pursuing key interests between Russia and China, the SCO also functions as a consolidating factor in the Russian-Chinese relationship by offering a vehicle for managing their affairs. For Russia, the SCO provides an opportunity for strengthening its political, military and economic ties with Central Asian countries and for constraining the growth of China’s influence in the region while at the same time balancing US influence. Russia’s most important concern about possible future developments in the SCO is China’s policy of using the organization as a vehicle for the economic penetration of Central Asian countries. Russia will strive for a balanced distribution of power within the SCO, thus hindering China’s aspirations to win greater influence in Central Asia through the organization. It should be appealing for Russia to establish itself as a “bridge” between the SCO and Euro-Atlantic institutions, such as the EU or NATO, which have manifested their increasing interest in Central Asia. This move could serve to emphasize Russia’s unique geopolitical position as a link between Europe and Asia, and raise its standing within the SCO itself.
第三語言摘要
論文目次
LIST OF CONTENTS:
Abstract (Chinese)……………………………………………………………….i
Abstract (English)……………………………………………………………….ii
List of Conents…………………………………………………………………..iii
Chapter I. Introduction...………………………………………………….………...………..1
1. Motivation of the Research……………………………….…………………..….3
2. Approach, Theory and Method…………………………………………………10
3. Literature Review………………………………………………………….…....21
 
Chapter II. 
Geopolitical Importance of Central Asia and Russian Interests in this Region after the Disintegration of the USSR (1991 – 1996) …………………………...30
1. Geopolitical Importance of Central Asia……………………………………….32
2. Situation in Central Asian Countries after the Disintegration of the    USSR..............................................................................................................................37
3. Russian Interests in Central Asia after the Fall of the Soviet Union…………..41

Chapter III. 
Shanghai Five and the Creation of the SCO: Russian Position (1996-2001)...54
1. Russia’s Main Objectives of the Formation of the “Shanghai Five”……………55
2. Foundation of the SCO and Its Structure…………………………………….....63
3. SCO: Conflicting Interests………………………………………………..…….70

Chapter IV.
Russia and SCO: Strengthening Structures, Expanding Objectives and Forms of Participation (2001 – 2009)…………………………………………………...79
1. SCO: International Security………………………………….………...……….79
2. SCO: Economic Cooperation……………………………...…….…..……...…104
3. SCO: New Forms of Participation………………………………..……….…..117

Chapter V. Conclusion…………………………………….…………..……...………..……127

Bibliography...…………………………………………………………………..131
參考文獻
Bibliography
Primary Sources: 

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Revelation of Turkmen Gas Export Price to China Will Reverberate in Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Global Insight, January 22, 2008. Available at: http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail11397.htm.
Robbins, Gerald, The Post-Soviet Heartland: Reconsidering Mackinder, Global Affairs, No.8, Fall 1993, pp.95-108.
Roy, Meena Singh, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: a Critical Evaluation, IDSA Comment, Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, July 4, 2006. Available at: http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/TheShanghaiCooperationOrganisation_MSRoy_040706.
Safranchuk, Ivan, The Competition for Security Roles in Central Asia, Russia in Global Affairs, No.1, January-March, 2008.
Schneider, David, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A League of Autocracies?, American Diplomacy, Publishers Chapel Hill NC, April, 2008. Available at: http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2008/0709/comm/schneider_shanghai.html.
Swanstrom, Niklas, Chinese Foreign Policy, Central Asia-Caucasus Institue, Silk Road Studies Program, February, 2004. Available at: http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/research/chinese_fp.htm.
Szadziewski, Henryk,  How the West Was Won: China’s Expansion into Central Asia, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, Volume 3(2), Spring 2009, pp. 210-218.
Trenin, Dmitry, Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: a Difficult Match, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, July 2005.
Trenin, Dmitri, Russia Reborn:  Reimagining Moscow’s Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, November-December, 2009. Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65498/dmitri-trenin/russia-reborn.
Troitskiy, Mikhail, A Russian Perspectives on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SIPRI Policy Paper, No.17, May, 2007. 
Vaezi, Mahmoud, Geopolitics of Crisis in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Central Asia and Caucasus, September, 2007.
Weitz, Richard, Growing Pains, The Journal of International Security Affairs, No. 17, Fall 2009.
Zhao, Gongcheng, China: Periphery and Strategy, SIIS Journal (Shanghai Institute for International Studies Journal), Volume 10, No.2, May, 2003, pp. 24-33.
Zhao, Huasheng, Security Building in Central Asia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in Ed. Tabata, Shinichiro, Iwashita, Akihiro, Slavic Eurasia’s Integration into the World Economy and Community, Sapporo: Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, 2004, p. 304.

Articles in Russian: 
Kozyrev, Andrey, Стратегия Партнерства (Strategiya Partnyorstva, Strategy of the Partnership), Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn (International Life), Volume 5, 1994, pp.5-15.
Laumulin, Murat, ШОС – Грандиозный Геополитический Блеф? Взгляд из Астаны, (The Shanghai Cooperation Organization as “Geopolitical Bluff”? A View from Astana), Research Programme Russia/NIS, IFRI, 2006.
Lukin, Alexander, ШОС: Что Дальше? (The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: What Next?), Russia in Global Affairs, No.2, July-September, 2007. Available at: http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/20/1135.html.
Luzyanin, Sergei, SCO-2009: Development Problems, Russia in Global Affairs, No.2, April-June 2009. Available at: http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1281.html.
Syroezhkin, Konstantin, Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Yekaterinburg, Eurasian Home, June, 2009. Available  at:  http://eurasianhome.org/xml/t/expert.xml?lang=en&nic=expert&pid=2057&s=111p3a45tj02gu55g312wbes.

News Resources:

News Resources in English: 
Anti-drug cooperation is developing effectively within SCO, Deputy Director of Federal Drug Control Agency of the Russian Federation Gen. Alexander Fedorov, Interview with Interfax News Agency, Interfax, 14 June, 2006. Available at: http://www.gnk.gov.ru/mofules.php?op=modload&fil.
Chinese President Anticipates Successful SCO Summit, People’s Daily, May 31, 2006. Available at: http://english.people.com.cn/200605/31/eng20060531_269829.html.
Chinese President Urges Further Promotion of Co-op Among SCO Members, Xinhua, June 16, 2009. Available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-06/16/content_11552940.htm.
China-Russia Statement on New World Order, China Daily, July 2, 2005. Available at: http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-07/02/content_456571.htm.
Economic Cooperation Within SCO, RIA Novosti, 3 May, 2006. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060503/47173696.html.
Expansion of SCO Will Be a Long and Complicated Process, RIA Novosti, 11 June, 2009. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20090611/155224683.html.
Going West Still a Top Development Strategy, China Daily, 22 March, 2004. Available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-03/22/content_316800.htm.
Iran Makes Move to Join SCO, PRESSTV, 24 March, 2008. Available at:  http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=48781§ionid=351020101.
Karcic, Harun, In the Playground of the Superpowers, Asia Times, September 21, 2007.
 Kazakhstan Won't Withdraw From Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, Ferghana, Informational Agency, August 27, 2008. Available at: http://enews.ferghana.ru/news.php?id=653&mode=snews&PHPSESSID=be1b21f9220577cc82faa.
Medvedev Calls for Rules to Admit New SCO Members, RIA Novosti, 16 June, 2009. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090616/155263660.html.
Radyuhin, Vladimir, Fresh Initiatives in SCO Expansion, The Hindu, 4 May, 2009. Available at: http://www.thehindu.com/2009/05/04/stories/2009050455170900.htm.
Russian-Afghani Forum Suggests Using Possibilities of SCO, CIS, EurAsEc and CSTO, exKZ.org (Kazakhstan News Agency), 19 May, 2009. Available at: http://exkz.org/content/russian-afghani-forum-suggests-using-possibilities-sco-cis-eurasec-and-csto.
Russia Shutters Iran SCO Membership Hopes, PRESSTV, Iran – Politics, 21 February, 2009. Available at: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id=86352§ionid=351020101.
SCO Does Not Seek Enlargement – Russian Diplomat, RIA Novosti, 28 November, 2005. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051128/42243636.html.  
SCO Provides Big Opportunities for Business, People’s Daily, June 14, 2006. Available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200606/14/eng20060614_273872.html.
SCO Regional Block Could Lift Moratorium on Expansion on July 25, RIA Novosti, 18 July, 2008. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080718/114311832.html.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Denies Expansion Plans, RIA Novosti, 30 July, 2008. Available at: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080730/115260143.html.
St. Petersburg Summit of SCO Concludes with Rich Fruit, Xinhua, June 8, 2002. Available at: http://www.nanning.china.org.cn/english/2002/Jun/34119.htm.
Yang, Hai, Role of the SCO Highlighted at Conference on Afghanistan, Xinhua, 29 March, 2009. Available at:  http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/29/content_11092204.htm.
Yermekbayev, Nurlan,  ASEAN and SCO: Opportunities and Perspectives of Interaction, RIA Novosti, 15January, 2008. Available at:  http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080115/97149978.html.


News Sources in Russian: 
В Учениях ШОС “Мирная Миссия 2010”  Примет Участие Тысяча Военных Российской Федерации (V Ucheniyah SHOS “Mirnaya Missiya 2010” Primet Uchastie Tysyacha Voiennyh Rossiskoi Federatsii, The Military Exercise of the SCO “Peace Mission 2010” Will Involve a Thousand Troops from the Russian Federation), Vzglyad, 6 April, 2010. Available at: http://vz.ru/news/2010/4/6/390292.html.
Страны ШОС Проведут Антитеррористические Учения в Казакхстане (Strany SHOS Provedut Antiterroristicheskie Ucheniya v Kazakhstane, The SCO Countries will Conduct Anti-Terrorism Exercises in Kazakhstan), Vzglyad, 5 April, 2010. Available at: http://vz.ru/news/2010/4/5/389881.html.
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