1950年6月25日「韓戰」的適時爆發，不僅徹底打亂美國亞洲全盤戰略部署，也從而改變蔣介石政府今後的命運。杜魯門在韓戰爆發後不久，隨即下令派遣第七艦隊進駐台海實行中立化政策，不啻是象徵美國政府放棄奉行對台袖手政策。因此，究竟韓戰的爆發是否是美國政府扭轉對台袖手政策的主因？乃是值得吾人深入探究的議題。本論文的研究目的即是在探討美國政府在「韓戰」爆發前後，對台政策從提出到修正的決策過程上，相關參與者與部會組織各自的考量為何，作深入的闡釋與分析。
    透過運用艾里遜教授所提出之決策理論三模式：「理性行為模式」、「組織行為模式」與「政府政治模式」，本論文試圖個別從國家利益、組織競爭 (包括組織內部垂直競爭與組織間水平競爭) 以及官員間彼此議價、政治角力等視角，對本案例作相當程度的剖析與闡述。
    經過理性模式之分析，本論文發現，美國政府是以「圍堵共產勢力擴張」作為思考與制定對台政策的前提。基於此因，美國政府之所以於韓戰爆發後即立即派遣第七艦隊進駐台海，完全是為了勿使共產勢力趁機坐大而損及美方國家利益所做的權宜之計。經過組織模式之分析，本論文發現，無論是在國務院內部的垂直競爭 (挺蔣與棄蔣的抗衡) 抑或是 國務院與軍方彼此組織間的水平競爭，最終皆是由主張棄蔣的一派得勝。即便最終軍方趁韓戰爆發之勢而成功獲取政府應允派遣艦隊護台，但肇因於政府未能同時應允擬定相關配套措施協助蔣介石政府，軍方也未能算是最終贏家。經過政府政治模式分析，本論文發現，在韓戰爆發後至6月27日杜魯門正式發表台海中立化政策為止，國務院艾奇遜憑藉其獨享與杜魯門良好的溝通管道，以及彼此忠貞的情誼，而能享有許多議價上的優勢。艾奇遜便倚靠這些議價上的優勢而能將自身觀點盡數向杜魯門告知，並間接左右杜魯門的對台政策思維，並在韓戰爆發後成功獲取杜魯門的支持與信任將對台政策制定大權全數交由其負責。
    總結來說，本文主旨是美國政府對台政策，從韓戰爆發前採行所謂的袖手旁觀，到韓戰後的阻共防台，皆是著眼於外部國際環境變遷下的考量。蔣介石政府得以延續，完全是因杜魯門政府為了維護自身國家安全與利益所做的政治考量所作的權宜之計，而非是真心要助其重返大陸

With the outbreak of the Korean War on June 25, 1950, it not only scuttled the grand strategy of the United States in Asia, but also changed the fate of the Chiang Kai-shek’s administration afterwards. As soon as the Korean War broke out, President Harry S. Truman ordered the 7th fleet to move to the Taiwan Strait so as to implement the policy of “Neutralization of the Straits of Formosa.” Such move was nothing but a change of hands-off policy toward Taiwan. Therefore the main purpose of this thesis is to explore what the decision maker, organizations and main participants had in mind in their policy toward Taiwan before and after the Korean War broke out. 
    By applying Graham Allison’s three decision-making models, namely, Rational Actor Model (RAM), Organizational Behavior Model (OBM), and Government Politics Model (GPM), this thesis will focus on the U.S. policy toward Taiwan before and after the Korean War broke out from the perspective of the national interest, the competition between organizations, and bureaucratic politics. 
    Analyzing from the perspective of RAM, the thesis finds that U.S. Taiwan policy was made under the precondition of “containing the Communism to spread.” Therefore, it is the reason why the Truman administration ordered the 7th fleet to move to the Taiwan Strait immediately after the Korean War broke out. It is just some kind of expediency for the U.S. to protect its own national interest. From the perspective of OBM, the thesis find that no matter what kind of competition (intra- or inter- organization) between State Department and the military, the State Department was the only winner. Even the military successfully asked President Truman send 7th Fleet to move to protect Formosa, owing to lacking of some kind of economic-aid package to help Chiang’s administration, the military was nothing but the loser eventually. Analyzing from the perspective of GPM, the thesis finds that by depending on his good relationship with President Truman Secretary of State Dean Acheson could easily get the upper hand in U.S. Taiwan policy.    
    To sum, the main theme of this thesis is that U.S. Taiwan policy, from hands-off policy to the dispatch of the 7th fleet to protect Formosa, depended on the changes of outer international environment. The reason why Chiang Kai-shek’s administration could survive largely because the Truman administration wanted to protect U.S. national security and interest, not because he wanted to help Chiang Kai-shek to retake mainland China.

目錄
第一章    緒論	1

第一節	研究目的與探討重點	2
第二節    相關文獻探討	6
第三節	研究架構、方法與範圍限制	13
第四節    章節安排	18
第五節    小結	20

第二章    理論與假設	21

第一節    理性行為模式	22
第二節    組織行為模式	27
第三節    政府政治模式	31
第四節    小結	36

第三章    檢證理性行為模式就美國對台袖手政策提出與修正的決策過程分析之成效…………	38

第一節	二戰後國際冷戰氛圍對美國遠東戰略政策的影響與調整	39
第二節    杜魯門的決策風格與中國難題	47
第三節    杜魯門修正袖手政策的理性抉擇	59
第四節    小結	72

第四章    檢證組織行為模式就美國對台袖手政策提出與修正的決策過程分析之成效…………	74

第一節    美國對華政策的反思與調整	76
第二節    美國對台政策的爭論與全面自中國內戰中脫身	89
第三節	美國對台政策的轉折與棄之不顧	105
第四節    韓戰爆發前後美國對台政策的轉向	119
第五節    小結	136

第五章    檢證政府政治模式就美國對台袖手政策提出與修正的決策過程分析之成效…………	140

第一節    主要參與者的職位與行事風格	142
第二節    韓戰爆發後美國決策官員對台袖手政策修正的互動	154
第三節    小結	175

第六章    結論	178
參考書目…	189

圖目錄
圖2 1 決策結構	35
圖3 1 競爭式模式 (羅斯福)	50
圖3 2 形式主義式模式 (杜魯門)	51

參考書目
壹、	中文部分

一、	書籍

李本京。《七十年中美關係評估，1913-1984》。台北：黎明，1988。
林利民。《遏制中國：朝鮮戰爭與中美關係》。北京：時事，2000。
郝雨凡。《白宮決策：從杜魯門到柯林頓的對華政策內幕》。北京：東方，2002。
時殷弘。《敵對與衝突的由來：美國對新中國的政策與中美關係，1949-1950》。南京：南京大學，1995。
陶文釗。《中美關係史上卷：1911-1949 》。上海：上海人民，2004。
陳一新。《斷交後的中美關係(一九七九~一九九四)》。台北：五南，1995。
陳志奇。《美國對華政策三十年》。台北：中華日報，民國69年。
資中筠。《追根溯源：戰後美國對華政策的緣起與發展，1945-1950》。第二版。北京：中國社會科學，2007。
趙學功。《巨大的轉變：戰後美國對東亞政策》。天津：天津人民，2001。
蘇格。《美國對華政策與台灣問題》。北京：世界知識，1999。

二、	期刊

王緝思。〈1945-1955年美國對華政策及其後果〉。《美國研究》1卷，1期 (1987年)：頁19-32。
李明。〈韓戰前後的美國對華政策〉。中國近代史的再思考國際學術研討會。2005年7月。
林利民。〈朝鮮戰爭與美國對華遏制政策的確立〉。《史學集刊》，2期 (2000年5月)：頁90-95。
邵宗海。〈評估韓戰前後杜魯門對華政策〉。《問題與研究》30卷，5期 (民國80年5月)：頁88-100。
周海峰。〈新中國建國前後美國的對華政策與台灣問題〉。《南昌教育學院學報》20卷，1期 (2005年)：頁65-68。
時殷弘。〈1950年美國遠東政策劇變的由來〉。《南開學報》，5期 (1995年)：頁45-54。
張也白。〈美國外交決策特點〉。《美國研究》1卷，4期 (1987年)：頁23-31。
張淑雅。〈一九五○年代美國對台決策模式分析〉。《近代史研究所集刊》，40期 (1992年6月)：頁 1-54。
鄭瑞耀。〈美國外交決策機構〉。在《美國》，何思因主編，頁557-81。台北：國立政治大學國際關係研究中心，民國81年。

三、	學位論文

羅民漢。〈官僚政治對美國外交政策的影響〉未出版之碩士論文，私立淡江大學美國研究所，民國74年。

貳、	英文部分

I.	United States Government Publications

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Assessing the Soviet Threat: The Early Cold War Years. Edited by Woodrow J. Kuhns. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1997. 
U.S. Congress. Senate. Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees. Military
Situation in the Far East. 82d Cong., 1st sess., 3-31 May 1951.
U.S. Department of State. American Foreign Policy, 1950-1955: Basic Documents.
Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1957. 
------. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1947. Vol. 1, General; The United Nations. Vol. 7, The Far East: China. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1972-73.
------. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1948. Vol. 1, General; The United Nations. Vol. 3, Western Europe. Vol. 6, The Far East and Australia. Vol. 7, The Far East: China. Vol. 8, The Far East: China. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1973-74. 
------. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949. Vol. 7, The Far East and Australia. Vol. 8, The Far East: China. Vol. 9, The Far East: China. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1975-76, 1978.  
------. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 1, National Security Affairs; Foreign Economic Policy. Vol. 6, East Asia and the Pacific. Vol. 7, Korea. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1976-77. 
------. United States Relations with China, With Special Reference to the Period 1944-1949. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1949. 
U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy, 1947-1949. Vol. 2 of The History of Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy. Edited by Kenneth W. Condit. Wilmington, Delaware: Michael Glazier, 1976. 
------. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy, The Korean War. Vol. 3 of The History of Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy. Edited by James F. Schnabel and Robert J. Watson. Wilmington, Delaware: Michael Glazier, 1979. 

II.	Books

Acheson, Dean. Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department. 1969. Reprint, New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1987.
Alexander, Bevin. The Strange Connection: U.S. Intervention in China, 1944-1972. New York: Greenwood Press, 1992. 
Allison, Graham T., and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. 2nd ed. New York: Addison-Wesley Educational Publisher, 1999. 
Barber, James David. The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972. 
Blum, Robert M. Drawing the Line: The Origin of the American Containment Policy in East Asia. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1982. 
Bradley, Omar N., and Clay Blair. A General's Life. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983. 
Cohen, Warren I. America's Response to China: An Interpretative History of Sino-American Relations. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1971. 
------. Dean Rusk. Vol. 19 of The American Secretaries of State and Their Diplomacy. Edited by Robert H. Ferrell and Samuel Flagg Bemis. Totowa, N.J.: Cooper Square Publishers, 1980. 
Donovan, Robert J. Conflict and Crisis: The Presidency of Harry S. Truman, 1945-1948. New York: W. W. Norton, 1977. 
Fenno, Jr., Richard F. The President’s Cabinet: An Analysis in the Period from Wilson to Eisenhower. New York: Vintage Books, 1959. 
Ferrell, Robert H. American Diplomacy: A History. Rev. ed. New York: W.W. Norton, 1969. 
Gaddis, John Lewis. Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1982. 
George, Alexander L. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1980. 
Halperin, Morton H. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974. 
McFarland, Keith D., and David L. Roll. Louis Johnson and the Arming of America. Bloomington, Indiana University Press, 2005. 
McGlothlen, Ronald L. Controlling the Waves: Dean Acheson and U.S. Foreign Policy in Asia. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1993.
Miller, Merle. Plain Speaking: An Oral Biography of Harry S. Truman. New York: Tess Press, 1974. 
Neustadt, Richard E. Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Regan. 5th ed. New York: Free Press, 1990. 
Nitze, Paul H. From Hiroshima to Glasnost: At the Center of Decision. New York: Grove Weidenfeld, 1989. 
Paige, Glenn D. The Korean Decision, June 24-30, 1950. New York: Free Press, 1968. 
Purifoy, Lewis McCarroll. Harry Truman's China Policy: McCarthyism and the Diplomacy of Hysteria, 1947-1951. New York: New Viewpoints, 1976. 
Rivera, Joseph de. The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy. Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill, 1968. 
Rubin, Barry. Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle over U.S. Foreign Policy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1985. 
Rusk, Dean. As I Saw It. New York: W.W. Norton , 1990. 
Smith, Gaddis. Dean Acheson. Vol. 16 of The American Secretaries of State and Their Diplomacy. Edited by Robert H. Ferrell and Samuel Flagg Bemis. New York: Cooper Square Publishers, 1972. 
Snyder, Glenn H., and Paul Diesing. Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977. 
Stueck, Jr., William Whitney. The Road to Confrontation: American Policy toward
China and Korea, 1947-1950. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press,
1981. 
Truman, Harry S. Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Harry S. Truman, 1950. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1965. 
------. Year of Decisions. Vol. 1 of Memoirs. New York: Signet Book, 1955. 
------. Years of Trial and Hope. Vol. 2 of Memoirs. New York: Signet Book, 1956. 
Tsou, Tang. America's Failure in China, 1945-50. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963. 
Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf. Patterns in the Dust: Chinese-American Relations and the Controversy, 1949-1950. New York: Columbia University Press, 1983. 
Turabian, Kate, L. A. Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses, and Dissertations. 7th ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007. 
Weiner, Tim. Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA. New York: Doubleday, 2007. 

III.	Articles

Acheson, Dean. “Crisis in Asia-An Examination of U.S. Policy.” Department of State Bulletin 22, no. 551 (January 23, 1950): 111-18. 
------. “Extemporaneous Remarks by Secretary Acheson.” Department of State Bulletin 22, no. 550 (January 16, 1950): 80-81. 
------. “The President and Secretary of State.” In The Secretary of State, edited by Don K. Price, 27-50. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1960. 
------. “The Responsibility for Decision in Foreign Policy.” The Yale Review 44, no.1 (Autumn 1954): 1-12. 
Allison, Graham T. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review 63 (September 1969): 689-718. 
Allison, Graham T., and Morton H. Halperin. “Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications.” World Politics 24 (Spring 1972): 40-79.
Bradley, Omar N., and Beverly Smith. “A Soldier’s Farewell.” Saturday Evening Post 226, no. 8 (August 26, 1953): 20-21, 56, 58, 62-64. 
Buhite, Russell D. “‘Major Interests’: American Policy toward China, Taiwan, and Korea, 1945-1950.” The Pacific Historical Review 47, no. 3 (August 1978): 425-51. 
Cohen, Warren I. “Acheson, His Advisers, and China, 1949-1950.” In Uncertain Years: Chinese American Relations, 1947-1950, edited by Dorothy Borg and Waldo Heinrichs, 13-52. New York: Columbia University Press, 1980. 
Etzold, Thomas H. “The Far East in American Strategy, 1948-1951.” In Aspects of Sino-American Relations Since 1784, edited by Thomas H. Etzold, 102-26. New York: New Viewpoints, 1978. 
Gaddis, John Lewis. “Harry S. Truman and the Origins of Containment.” In Makers of American Diplomacy: from Benjamin Franklin to Henry Kissinger, edited by Frank J. Merli and Theodore A. Wilson, 493-522. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1974. 
------. “The Strategic Perspective: The Rise and Fall of the ‘Defensive Perimeter’ Concept.” In Uncertain Years: Chinese American Relations, 1947-1950, edited by Dorothy Borg and Waldo Heinrichs, 61-118. New York: Columbia University Press, 1980. 
------. “Was the Truman Doctrine a Real Turning Point?” Foreign Affairs 52, no.2 (January 1974): 386-402. 
George, Alexander L. “American Policy-Making and the North Korean Aggression.” World Politics 7, no. 2 (January 1955): 209-32. 
------. “The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy.” American Political Science Review 66, no. 3 (September 1972): 751-85. 
------. “The ‘Operational Code’: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making.” International Studies Quarterly 13, no.2 (June 1969): 190-222. 
Hamby, Alonzo L. “The Mind and Character of Harry S. Truman.” In The Truman Presidency, edited by Michael J. Lacey, 19-53. New York: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1989. 
Krasner, Stephen D. “Are Bureaucracies Important?” Foreign Policy no.7 (Summer 1972): 159-79. 
Lijphart, Arend. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method.” American Political Science Review 65, no. 3 (September 1971): 682-93. 
O’Connor, Raymond G. “Harry S. Truman: New Dimensions of Power.” In Powers of the President in Foreign Affairs, 1945-1965, edited by Edgar E. Robinson, 17-76. San Francisco, California: Commonwealth Club of California, 1966. 
Perlmutter, Amos. “The Presidential Political Center and foreign Policy: A Critique of the Revisionist and Bureaucratic Political Orientations.” World Politics 27, no.4 (October 1974): 87-106. 
Pollard, Robert A. “The National Security State Reconsidered: Truman and Economic Containment, 1945-1950.” In The Truman Presidency, edited by Michael J. Lacey, 205-34. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989. 
Rosati, Jerel A. “Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective.” World Politics 33, no. 2 (January 1981): 234-52. 
Sander, Alfred D. “Truman and the National Security Council: 1945-1947.” In Decisions of the Highest Order: Perspectives on the National Security Council, edited by Karl F. Inderfurth and Loch K. Johnson, 16-28. Belmont, California: Brooks/Cole, 1988. 
Simon, Herbert A. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 69, no.1 (February 1955): 99-118. 
------. “Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science.” American Political Science Review 79, no. 2(June 1985): 293-304. 
Snyder, Richard C. “A Decision-Making Approach to the Study of Political Phenomena.” In Approaches to The Study of Politics, edited by Roland Young, 3-38. Evanston: Northwestern University Press, 1958. 
Snyder, Richard C., H.W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, “Decision-Making as an Approach to the study of International Politics.” In Foreign Policy Decision-Making, edited by Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, 21-152. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press, 2002. 
Souers, Sidney W. “Policy Formulation for National Security.” In Decisions of the Highest Order: Perspectives on the National Security Council, edited by Karl F. Inderfurth and Loch K. Johnson, 48-54. 
Theoharis, Athan. “The Rhetoric of Politics: Foreign Policy, Internal Security, and Domestic Politics in the Truman Era, 1945-1950.” In Politics and Policies of the Truman Administration, edited by Barton J. Bernstein, 196-241. Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1972. 
Truman, Harry S. “United States Policy Toward Asia.” Department of State Bulletin22, no. 550 (January 16, 1950O: 79
Warner, Albert L. “How the Korean Decision was Made.” Harper’s Magazine 202, no. 1213 (June 1951): 99-106. 
Welch, David A. “The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect and Prospect.” International Security 17, no.2 (Autumn 1992): 112-46. 

參、	網站資料

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. “ORE39-49-Probable Development in Taiwan”. Under “Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room.” http://www.foia.cia.gov/ (accessed March 26, 2009). 
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潘東豫，〈國防組織再造進化模式之研究：從美國國防組織之演變分析我國防組織再造之特性〉，《和平論壇》(2003年6月19日)，http://wwww.peaceforum.org.tw/onweb.jsp?webno=3333333306&webitem_no=522  (2009年4月5日)。